Evan Aschenbeck — OGILVIE

Evan Aschenbeck P South Bend Cubs

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 125

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%12.2%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	94	383	72	22	5	79%	5.0	14.3%	6.6%	7.7%	1.5%	2.39	3.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	94	383	72	22	5	79%	5.0	14.3%	6.6%	7.7%	1.5%	2.39	3.54	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	15	94	383	72	22	5	79%	5.0	18.8%	5.7%	13.1%	1.3%	2.39	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CHC	1	1	6	25	3	2	1	100%	6.0	12.2%	7.3%	5.0%	2.7%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	85	358	51	26	10	100%	6.1	14.3%	7.3%	7.0%	2.7%	4.71	4.67	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	84	353	52	26	10	100%	6.4	14.8%	7.4%	7.5%	2.8%	4.68	4.68	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	81	342	52	26	10	100%	6.2	15.1%	7.5%	7.5%	2.9%	4.70	4.74	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	78	327	56	23	10	100%	6.5	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	3.0%	4.63	4.59	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	73	307	51	22	10	100%	6.1	16.7%	7.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.71	4.76	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	68	287	47	22	10	100%	6.2	16.3%	7.6%	8.6%	3.5%	4.86	4.97	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	37	156	22	11	4	100%	6.2	14.3%	7.3%	7.0%	2.6%	4.65	4.61	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	53	224	33	16	6	100%	6.6	14.8%	7.4%	7.5%	2.7%	4.62	4.62	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	39	19	7	100%	6.1	15.1%	7.5%	7.5%	2.8%	4.64	4.68	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	63	266	45	19	8	100%	6.3	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.53	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	62	262	44	19	8	100%	6.2	16.7%	7.3%	9.4%	3.1%	4.64	4.69	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	60	253	41	19	8	100%	6.0	16.3%	7.6%	8.6%	3.3%	4.79	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	336	1418	224	104	41	100%	6.3	15.8%	7.3%	8.5%	2.9%	4.65	4.30	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	133	62	24	100%	6.3	15.8%	7.3%	8.5%	2.9%	4.65	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		19	15	94	383	55	25	6	79%	5.0	14.3%	6.6%	7.7%	1.5%	2.39	3.54	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	32	200	812	117	54	12	79%	5.0	14.3%	6.6%	7.7%	1.5%	2.39	3.54	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Aschenbeck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	12.2%	7.3%	2.7%	—	4.70	14.7%	7.3%	250	-0.12	—	—	—
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	86
Eric Jokisch L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	11.1%	7.1%	2.3%	.307	4.05	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.29	3.78	412	84
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	83
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	82
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	81
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	80
Matthew Crownover L 2018 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	377	79
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	79
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	79
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	79
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	79
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	78
John Anderson L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SP-	4.12	11.0%	8.5%	1.6%	.316	4.23	14.3%	5.6%	115	+0.11	4.12	235	78
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	78
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	78
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	77
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2016 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP	4.78	11.0%	8.5%	2.8%	.336	4.87	11.7%	1.5%	176	+0.09	4.58	321	77
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	77
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	77	15.2%	7.3%	1.14	4.73
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77