Evan Aschenbeck P South Bend Cubs
Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 128
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
K%12.2%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%4.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
K: -5.2 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-5KBB: +0.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: -0.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +4.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+5STAMTotal WAR: -0.06 (70 IP)-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.30.30.20.00.00.0+$4M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF3030
CTRL6060
CMD4040
K†3030
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.8M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202524MIX2 levels1915943837222579%5.014.3%6.6%7.7%1.3%2.393.47—
202524MIX2 levels1915943837222579%5.018.8%5.7%13.1%1.3%2.392.96—
▸ 2026 Season
202625MLBCHC11117029636228100%6.412.2%7.5%4.7%2.6%4.844.84-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726MLBCHC11117029643238100%6.414.4%7.7%6.7%2.7%4.734.70+0.1
202827MLBCHC11116929144238100%6.315.0%7.9%7.2%2.7%4.704.71+0.0
202928MLBCHC11116728243238100%6.115.3%8.1%7.2%2.8%4.734.77-0.1
203029MLBCHC10106427041228100%6.415.3%8.3%7.0%3.0%4.824.89-0.2
202726MLBCHC553012718103100%6.014.4%7.7%6.7%2.7%4.754.72-0.1
202827MLBCHC774318227145100%6.115.0%7.9%7.2%2.8%4.724.73-0.1
202928MLBCHC885021132176100%6.215.3%8.1%7.2%2.9%4.754.79-0.1
203029MLBCHC885222034187100%6.515.3%8.3%7.0%3.0%4.844.91-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—28281767421126021100%6.315.1%8.0%7.1%2.9%4.774.42+2.0
/ 200 IP—32322008441276824100%6.315.1%8.0%7.1%2.9%4.774.42+2.3
Career—1915943835525579%5.014.3%6.6%7.7%1.3%2.393.47+2.0
/ 200 IP—4032200812117541179%5.014.3%6.6%7.7%1.3%2.393.47+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Evan Aschenbeck (OGILVIE) —— 4.84 12.2%7.5%2.6%— 4.73 14.9%7.0%206 -0.11 ———
Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.86 FIP 25 SP- 3.86 12.5%5.2%2.1%.304 3.87 14.9%6.2%162 +0.01 3.39 261 85
Eric Jokisch L 2027 · 4.47 FIP 26 SP 4.47 11.1%7.1%2.6%.307 4.10 14.7%6.8%342 -0.37 3.80 412 84
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2027 · 5.52 FIP 26 SP 5.52 13.6%10.5%4.1%.257 4.63 14.5%5.5%228 -0.89 3.09 299 81
Jack Snodgrass L 2028 · 4.77 FIP 27 SP- 4.77 12.6%10.7%2.5%.278 5.20 15.7%5.6%45 +0.43 4.77 118 81
Kyle Hald L 2027 · 4.17 FIP 26 SP 4.17 12.1%7.4%2.1%.313 — ——— — 4.17 124 80
Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.83 FIP 25 SP- 3.83 15.6%9.5%1.5%.321 — ——— — 3.83 109 80
Matthew Crownover L 2026 · 4.46 FIP 25 SP 4.46 12.1%7.5%2.6%.294 — ——— — 4.30 377 80
Kyle Twomey L 2024 · 3.89 FIP 23 SP 3.89 14.8%7.9%1.9%.353 — ——— — 3.89 141 79
Jordan Fowler L 2025 · 4.30 FIP 24 SP 4.30 13.2%7.9%2.4%.318 — ——— — 4.30 124 79
John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 3.72 FIP 25 SP- 3.72 14.8%8.1%1.5%.294 4.27 14.3%5.0%345 +0.55 3.72 463 79
Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.19 FIP 23 SP- 4.19 16.4%10.5%2.1%.280 — ——— — 4.19 106 79
Grant Watson L 2025 · 4.68 FIP 24 SP- 4.68 16.4%10.3%3.0%.344 — ——— — 2.59 180 78
John Anderson L 2027 · 4.03 FIP 26 SP- 4.03 11.0%8.5%1.4%.316 4.02 14.3%5.6%115 -0.01 4.02 235 78
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.95 FIP 25 SP 3.95 16.5%8.6%2.1%.313 3.78 17.4%6.8%186 -0.17 3.37 440 78
Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.54 FIP 25 SP 4.54 16.0%8.0%3.2%.294 4.08 19.8%6.6%45 -0.46 3.65 328 77
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 5.80 FIP 25 SP- 5.80 12.3%8.5%4.9%.327 4.56 10.7%3.9%181 -1.24 3.63 322 77
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2026 · 4.91 FIP 25 SP 4.91 11.0%8.5%3.0%.336 4.84 11.7%1.5%176 -0.07 4.37 321 77
Kramer Sneed L 2028 · 4.29 FIP 27 SP 4.29 13.2%8.2%2.3%.265 — ——— — 4.29 116 77
Jeffry Antigua L 2026 · 4.65 FIP 25 SP- 4.65 11.4%8.6%2.6%.271 — ——— — 4.65 133 77
Kelvin Marte L 2028 · 3.96 FIP 27 SP- 3.96 11.7%7.8%1.6%.273 4.24 16.3%7.0%160 +0.28 3.50 360 77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION56814.4%7.9%1.074.76
Robert Gsellman ('21)56718.4%7.8%0.964.38
Joe Biagini ('19)48119.1%7.8%1.284.86
Chris Rusin ('18)48917.9%7.1%1.014.43
Blaine Hardy ('19)55018.6%7.7%1.113.91
Vance Worley ('17)37715.4%8.5%1.024.73
JC Ramírez ('17)38317.0%7.7%1.304.33