Evan Aschenbeck
P
South Bend Cubs
+0.7
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2027
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.4%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%11.4%
IP94
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 19 | 15 | 94 | 383 | 72 | 22 | 5 | 14.3% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 2.39 | 3.52 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 77 | 32 | 11 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 86 | 34 | 11 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.26 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 89 | 35 | 12 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 90 | 35 | 12 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 88 | 35 | 12 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 99 | 420 | 84 | 34 | 12 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 80 | 34 | 12 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 76 | 33 | 12 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 71 | 32 | 12 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 67 | 31 | 11 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 68 | 27 | 11 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 62 | 26 | 11 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 57 | 25 | 10 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 15 | 94 | 383 | 55 | 25 | 6 | 14.3% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 2.39 | 3.52 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 32 | 200 | 812 | 117 | 53 | 13 | 14.3% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 2.39 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Aschenbeck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.27 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 311 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 93 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 92 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 91 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 90 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 89 |
| Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 88 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 88 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.30 | 14.5% | 5.7% | 289 | +0.58 | 3.72 | 408 | 87 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 87 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 87 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.61 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .266 | 6.15 | 11.5% | -1.2% | 56 | +2.54 | 3.61 | 145 | 87 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 87 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 6.3% | 11 | -0.01 | 3.78 | 295 | 86 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 86 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 86 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.91 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .318 | 3.57 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.34 | 3.08 | 681 | 86 |
| Matt Tracy L 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.11 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 298 | 85 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.35 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 4.08 | 17.5% | 5.0% | 134 | +0.73 | 3.35 | 414 | 85 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .338 | 4.72 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.40 | 3.76 | 674 | 85 |
| John Gast L 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| Totals | $6M | $32M | +$26M | ||