Connor Wietgrefe

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.8 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	APIT	5	4	10	0.90	2.40	31.7%	4.9%	—	K 31.7% · BB 4.9% · FIP 2.38
2025	23	MIX3 levels	26	26	116	3.10	3.46	22.2%	5.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.22
2026	24	MIX2 levels	29	28	151	3.27	3.39	21.3%	8.3%	—	K 17.8% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	15	15	90	4.50	4.50	16.9%	7.9%	0.4
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBPIT	12	12	69	4.33	4.30	18.1%	7.8%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBPIT	16	16	96	4.33	4.33	18.4%	7.9%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$1.0M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff48Control59Command45FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsJuan Pablo Oramas (age 25) · Joe Saunders (age 25) · Scott Downs (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 119

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%16.9%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL5560

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.38	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.38	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	3.1%	3.10	4.22	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	3.1%	3.10	4.22	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	22.2%	5.5%	16.7%	2.9%	3.10	3.46	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	151	628	134	52	12	97%	5.2	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	2.2%	3.27	3.83	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	151	628	134	52	12	97%	5.2	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	2.2%	3.27	3.83	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	151	628	134	52	12	97%	5.2	21.3%	8.3%	13.1%	1.9%	3.27	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	15	15	90	380	64	30	10	100%	6.0	16.9%	7.9%	9.1%	2.7%	4.50	4.50	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	143	605	110	47	16	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	2.7%	4.44	4.41	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	145	613	113	48	17	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.44	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	145	613	113	49	18	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.51	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	139	585	107	48	18	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.64	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	130	550	99	47	18	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	3.2%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	122	513	90	46	18	100%	6.1	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	3.5%	4.90	5.02	-0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	112	475	81	44	18	100%	5.9	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.7%	5.11	5.24	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	69	291	53	23	7	100%	5.8	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	2.5%	4.33	4.30	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	96	405	75	32	10	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	2.6%	4.33	4.33	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	112	473	87	38	13	100%	5.9	18.5%	8.0%	10.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.39	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	115	486	89	40	14	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	2.8%	4.45	4.52	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	113	477	86	41	14	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.69	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	108	456	80	41	15	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	3.2%	4.76	4.88	-0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	102	431	74	40	15	100%	6.0	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.4%	4.96	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	119	715	3021	543	254	87	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.55	4.23	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	152	71	24	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.55	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		60	58	277	1124	201	84	29	97%	4.6	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	2.5%	3.12	3.94	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	811	145	61	21	97%	4.6	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	2.5%	3.12	3.94	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Wietgrefe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	16.9%	7.9%	2.7%	—	4.45	18.3%	10.4%	433	-0.05	—	—	—
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	89
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	85
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	84
Seth Lonsway L 2024 · 3.35 FIP	25	SP	3.35	16.0%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	4.52	15.2%	3.1%	226	+1.17	3.35	506	84
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	83
Sean West L 2009 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	15.0%	9.4%	2.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	103	83
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	83
Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	14.5%	8.7%	2.5%	.270	4.72	20.7%	10.2%	189	+0.40	4.16	291	83
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	82
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	82
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	82
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	82
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	82
Daniel Camarena L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.9%	9.7%	2.4%	.338	4.71	16.9%	10.5%	187	+0.39	3.76	674	82
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	82
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	81
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	81
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	81
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	81
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	128	17.9%	8.3%	1.17	4.63
Tim Leary ('81-'94, 9 WAR*)	7.5	136	18.1%*	8.1%*	1.18*	4.72*
Brian Kingman ('79-'83, 3 WAR*)	2.8	138	18.4%*	8.6%*	1.10*	4.62*
Manny Salvo ('39-'43, 4 WAR*)	3.6	144	17.2%*	9.2%*	1.19*	4.37*
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Paul Wilson ('05)	4.7	135	14.9%	8.1%	1.20	4.86