Luis Lameda
SS Wilson Warbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKMIL | 155 | .193/.395/.228 | 1 | 3 | 36 | — | .148/.283/.180 |
| 2025 | 19 | ACarolina Mudc… | 287 | .211/.366/.259 | 0 | 7 | 62 | — | .198/.313/.239 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/AMIL | 286 | .245/.375/.318 | 2 | 12 | 64 | — | .211/.311/.276 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBMIL | 396 | .202/.308/.257 | 1 | 7 | 67 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBMIL | 77 | .207/.312/.281 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBMIL | 153 | .213/.316/.302 | 2 | 3 | 81 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 141 | 101 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 238 | 446 | 277 | 723 | 40 | 289 | 14 | 25 | 353 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 155 | 114 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 193 | 395 | 228 | 623 | 35 | 256 | 22 | 23 | 310 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 287 | 228 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55 | 51 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 211 | 366 | 259 | 625 | 48 | 267 | 18 | 19 | 302 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 56 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 268 | 229 | 497 | 83 | 189 | 20 | 14 | 239 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Wilson Warbirds | — | 230 | 185 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 47 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 270 | 401 | 341 | 741 | 70 | 345 | 20 | 17 | 343 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 141 | 111 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 153 | 324 | 180 | 504 | 27 | 189 | 17 | 18 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 155 | 128 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 148 | 283 | 180 | 463 | 31 | 204 | 32 | 14 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 287 | 243 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 67 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 198 | 313 | 239 | 552 | 41 | 263 | 23 | 14 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 56 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 232 | 220 | 452 | 80 | 178 | 25 | 11 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 230 | 197 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 64 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 228 | 330 | 289 | 620 | 61 | 311 | 28 | 12 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 141 | 111 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 153 | 324 | 180 | 504 | 27 | 191 | 17 | 18 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 141 | 101 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 238 | 446 | 277 | 723 | 40 | 289 | 14 | 25 | 353 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 155 | 128 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 148 | 283 | 180 | 463 | 31 | 222 | 32 | 14 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers | — | 155 | 114 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 193 | 395 | 228 | 623 | 35 | 256 | 22 | 23 | 310 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 287 | 243 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 67 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 198 | 313 | 239 | 552 | 41 | 268 | 23 | 14 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 287 | 228 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55 | 51 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 211 | 366 | 259 | 625 | 48 | 267 | 18 | 19 | 302 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 286 | 247 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 78 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 206 | 307 | 267 | 575 | 61 | 288 | 27 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 286 | 233 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 47 | 58 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 245 | 375 | 318 | 692 | 73 | 312 | 20 | 16 | 323 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 141 | 112 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 152 | 324 | 179 | 502 | 27 | 189 | 17 | 18 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 155 | 130 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 146 | 283 | 177 | 460 | 31 | 204 | 32 | 14 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 287 | 244 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 67 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 197 | 313 | 238 | 551 | 41 | 263 | 23 | 14 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 286 | 248 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 78 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 206 | 307 | 266 | 574 | 60 | 285 | 27 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 155 | 130 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 146 | 283 | 177 | 460 | 31 | 204 | 32 | 14 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 287 | 244 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 67 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 197 | 313 | 238 | 551 | 41 | 263 | 23 | 14 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 286 | 248 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 78 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 206 | 307 | 266 | 574 | 60 | 285 | 27 | 12 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | MIL | 0% | 396 | 341 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 92 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 202 | 308 | 257 | 565 | 55 | 269 | 23 | 13 | 267 | 67 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIL | 34% | 224 | 193 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 51 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 314 | 284 | 598 | 75 | 271 | 23 | 12 | 280 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIL | 48% | 315 | 271 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 71 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 215 | 318 | 305 | 623 | 89 | 273 | 23 | 12 | 289 | 81 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 53% | 382 | 330 | 72 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 85 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 321 | 319 | 640 | 99 | 275 | 22 | 12 | 295 | 86 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 55% | 419 | 362 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 51 | 93 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 222 | 323 | 328 | 651 | 106 | 276 | 22 | 12 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIL | 56% | 439 | 380 | 85 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 53 | 98 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 223 | 323 | 334 | 656 | 110 | 277 | 22 | 12 | 300 | 89 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIL | 59% | 445 | 385 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 99 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 222 | 322 | 331 | 653 | 109 | 276 | 22 | 12 | 299 | 88 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIL | 61% | 444 | 385 | 85 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 53 | 100 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 221 | 320 | 326 | 646 | 106 | 275 | 23 | 12 | 296 | 87 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIL | 63% | 435 | 377 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 52 | 99 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 218 | 317 | 320 | 638 | 102 | 274 | 23 | 12 | 293 | 84 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIL | 63% | 423 | 368 | 79 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 215 | 314 | 313 | 626 | 97 | 273 | 23 | 12 | 289 | 81 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIL | 65% | 407 | 354 | 75 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 96 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 211 | 309 | 303 | 612 | 92 | 270 | 24 | 12 | 283 | 78 | -11 | -1 | -3 | +4 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIL | 34% | 77 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 312 | 281 | 593 | 74 | 267 | 22 | 13 | 277 | 75 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIL | 48% | 153 | 132 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 316 | 302 | 618 | 89 | 269 | 22 | 12 | 287 | 81 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIL | 53% | 201 | 173 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 319 | 317 | 636 | 99 | 271 | 22 | 12 | 293 | 86 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 55% | 229 | 198 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 51 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 321 | 326 | 647 | 106 | 272 | 22 | 12 | 297 | 88 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIL | 56% | 244 | 211 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 221 | 321 | 332 | 653 | 111 | 272 | 22 | 12 | 299 | 89 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIL | 59% | 264 | 228 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 59 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 320 | 329 | 649 | 109 | 272 | 22 | 12 | 297 | 88 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIL | 61% | 273 | 236 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 318 | 325 | 642 | 106 | 271 | 23 | 12 | 295 | 87 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIL | 63% | 272 | 235 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 62 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 216 | 315 | 318 | 633 | 102 | 270 | 23 | 12 | 291 | 84 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIL | 63% | 268 | 233 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 62 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 213 | 312 | 311 | 622 | 97 | 269 | 23 | 12 | 287 | 81 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIL | 65% | 265 | 231 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 62 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 209 | 307 | 301 | 608 | 92 | 266 | 23 | 12 | 281 | 78 | -7 | -1 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2246 | 1944 | 422 | 67 | 9 | 38 | 272 | 508 | 13 | 31 | 13 | 217 | 317 | 319 | 637 | 102 | 273 | 23 | 12 | 291 | 79 | -41 | +1 | -4 | +24 | +49 | 2.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 563 | 122 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 79 | 147 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 217 | 318 | 320 | 638 | 103 | 272 | 23 | 12 | 291 | 79 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4973 | 4280 | 909 | 148 | 18 | 67 | 618 | 1148 | 33 | 85 | 39 | 212 | 316 | 302 | 619 | 90 | 272 | 23 | 12 | 285 | 79 | -80 | +2 | -7 | +44 | +89 | 5.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 559 | 118 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 81 | 150 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 211 | 315 | 301 | 615 | 89 | 270 | 23 | 12 | 285 | 79 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AWilson Warbirds · 230 PAwOBA .340 → .279 (−61)K% 20.4% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 12.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×1.030 | 27.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.030 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .340 → .279; ISO .070 → .057; BABIP .345 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 56 PAwOBA .234 → .196 (−38)K% 19.6% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 10.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 10.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.028 | ×1.042 | 2.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .234 → .196; ISO .083 → .072; BABIP .189 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 287 PAwOBA .299 → .260 (−39)K% 17.8% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.77% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.16% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 14.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.47% | ÷0.948 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.045 | 21.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.045 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.045 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.214 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .299 → .260; ISO .048 → .042; BABIP .267 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Brewers · 155 PAwOBA .310 → .222 (−88)K% 21.9% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.94% | ÷1.002 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.23% | ÷1.014 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 14.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.972 | ×1.022 | 20.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.088 | ×0.720 | ×0.972 | ×1.022 | 0.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.972 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.947 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.05% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .310 → .222; ISO .035 → .029; BABIP .256 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Brewers 2 · 141 PAwOBA .351 → .253 (−99)K% 14.2% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.18% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 24.82% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 17.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.008 | ×0.680 | ×0.964 | ×1.022 | 17.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.47% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | ×0.964 | ×1.022 | 1.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.125 | ×0.600 | ×0.964 | ×1.022 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.904 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 281, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 125, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .351 → .253; ISO .040 → .025; BABIP .289 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).