Carter Graham — OGILVIE

Carter Graham1B Dayton Dragons

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 228 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION552 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP280

ISO120

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	40	31	6	1	0	0	6	11	2	2	0	194	359	226	585	32	286	28	15	287	80	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	131	117	22	5	0	5	10	45	3	3	1	188	269	359	628	171	250	34	8	281	77	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	187	162	38	10	1	3	15	38	8	5	2	235	330	364	694	130	285	20	8	314	99	-0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	229	206	51	10	0	4	13	50	6	7	1	248	311	354	665	107	301	22	6	298	87	-3	+1	—	—	+5	0.3
2025	23	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	179	156	36	8	1	5	16	41	3	5	1	231	314	391	705	160	272	23	9	310	96	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	40	33	5	1	0	0	4	16	2	2	0	152	282	182	464	30	253	40	10	230	42	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	131	120	16	4	0	3	7	60	3	3	1	133	200	242	442	108	212	46	5	190	15	-13	+0	—	—	+3	-1.0
2024	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	187	166	33	9	1	2	11	55	8	5	2	199	281	301	582	102	266	29	6	259	61	-9	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	229	210	43	8	0	3	9	68	6	7	1	205	258	286	543	81	272	30	4	240	49	-14	+1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	179	159	30	6	1	4	13	58	3	5	1	189	263	314	577	126	241	32	7	251	56	-9	+1	—	—	+4	-0.5
2023	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	40	33	5	1	0	0	4	16	2	2	0	152	282	182	464	30	278	40	10	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	40	31	6	1	0	0	6	11	2	2	0	194	359	226	585	32	286	28	15	287	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	286	48	12	1	5	18	115	11	8	3	168	244	269	514	101	254	36	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	318	279	60	15	1	8	25	83	11	8	3	215	305	362	667	147	272	26	8	301	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	408	369	74	15	1	7	22	125	9	12	2	201	263	304	566	103	273	31	5	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	408	362	87	18	1	9	29	91	9	12	2	240	312	370	683	130	289	22	7	303	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	40	34	5	1	0	0	4	16	2	2	0	147	282	176	459	29	253	40	10	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	286	48	12	1	5	18	115	11	8	3	168	244	269	514	101	244	36	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	408	374	74	15	1	7	22	125	9	12	2	198	263	299	562	102	258	31	5	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	40	34	5	1	0	0	4	16	2	2	0	147	282	176	459	29	253	40	10	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	318	286	48	12	1	5	18	115	11	8	3	168	244	269	514	101	244	36	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	408	374	74	15	1	7	22	125	9	12	2	198	263	299	562	102	258	31	5	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	CIN	—	552	477	118	26	1	23	56	150	16	13	2	247	346	451	797	203	310	27	10	343	119	+12	+2	+0	-10	+12	1.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ RAW	CIN	—	292	233	75	17	0	17	45	55	11	7	0	322	453	614	1.067	292	356	19	15	458	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA RAW	CIN	—	260	220	61	14	1	12	35	62	5	6	2	277	388	514	902	236	336	24	13	398	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	A+ MLE	CIN	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		276	30	10	309	95	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	A+ MLE	CIN	—	562	486	119	26	1	23	57	153	16	13	2	245	343	444	788	200	308	27	10	343	118	+12	+2	+0	-10	+12	1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	30%	581	512	112	24	1	19	51	162	13	10	2	219	306	381	686	162	278	28	9	310	96	-3	+1	+0	-10	+13	0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	44%	609	537	118	25	1	20	54	167	13	10	2	220	306	382	688	162	279	27	9	312	97	-2	+1	+0	-11	+13	0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	49%	627	553	123	26	1	21	56	171	13	10	2	222	309	387	696	165	279	27	9	312	97	-2	+1	+0	-11	+14	0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	638	562	124	26	1	21	58	174	13	10	2	221	308	383	691	162	279	27	9	311	97	-2	+1	-1	-11	+14	0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	51%	633	557	122	25	1	21	58	174	13	9	2	219	307	381	688	162	278	27	9	309	95	-3	+1	-1	-11	+14	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	51%	625	550	120	25	1	20	57	173	13	8	2	218	306	376	683	158	276	28	9	306	93	-5	+1	-2	-11	+14	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	30%	176	155	34	7	0	6	15	49	4	3	1	219	305	381	685	161	282	28	9	300	96	-1	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	44%	269	237	54	11	1	10	24	74	6	5	1	228	315	409	724	181	283	28	9	303	97	-1	+1	+0	-5	+6	0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	49%	307	270	62	13	1	11	28	84	6	5	1	230	316	407	723	178	283	27	9	304	97	-1	+1	+0	-5	+7	0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	329	289	67	14	1	12	30	90	7	5	1	232	319	412	731	180	283	27	9	303	97	-1	+1	-0	-6	+7	0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	51%	326	286	65	13	1	12	30	90	7	5	1	227	316	406	721	178	281	28	9	301	95	-2	+1	-1	-6	+7	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	51%	322	283	63	13	1	11	29	89	7	4	1	223	310	392	703	170	279	28	9	298	93	-3	+0	-1	-6	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1729	1520	345	71	5	62	156	476	37	27	6	227	314	403	717	176	285	28	9	302	88	-8	+3	-2	-31	+37	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	130	27	2	23	59	179	14	10	2	228	315	403	718	175	287	28	9	302	88	-3	+1	-1	-12	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4489	3968	847	179	8	134	379	1280	100	79	17	213	298	364	662	150	276	29	8	298	88	-18	+7	-4	-66	+81	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	122	26	1	19	55	185	14	11	2	212	297	360	657	148	275	28	8	298	88	-3	+1	-1	-12	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	7.2	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.9
/162	664	27	0	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#4Chris Carterlast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,807 PA	4.2	2,807	158	12	219	314	462	-50	-50	3.3	3.3
/162	664	37	3	-11.7	-11.9	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	3.4	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
/162	664	17	4	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	3.6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
/162	664	23	2	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.6	1,731	57	27	222	306	386	-31	-4	1.1	1.1
/162	664	22	10	-11.9	-1.7	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carter Graham (OGILVIE)	24	40	35	50	25	215/305/378	163	276	11	7	28%	9%	95	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jared Schlehuber 2013 · A	24	43	45→50	48→40	41	214/265/335	122	286	12	4	29%	6%	68	-1.0	224/280/346	122	288	12	3	26%	6%	77	-0.3	220/278/343	123	279	13	2	25%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Brandon Lockridge 2021 · A	24	41→51	43→45	50→65	37	202/252/319	117	294	10	12	34%	5%	59	-1.6	226/275/349	123	321	13	22	32%	6%	76	-0.4	253/321/335	81	356	3	53	27%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Alex Call 2019 · AA	24	40→48	43→50	43→50	43	199/264/312	113	275	10	7	30%	7%	63	-1.3	200/260/315	115	273	11	9	29%	7%	62	-1.4	238/341/359	122	289	11	12	20%	12%	103	+0.8
✕Romy Gonzalez 2021 · A	24	41→44	41→50	51→55	37	195/252/299	103	305	8	10	37%	6%	55	-1.9	218/265/361	143	315	17	18	35%	5%	75	-0.5	277/323/436	159	352	16	16	25%	6%	111	+0.9
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	201/259/308	107	270	11	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	217/276/340	123	279	13	9	26%	6%	74	-0.5	208/269/326	118	262	13	7	25%	5%	65	-0.7
✕Taylor Jones 2018 · A	24	38→46	39→50	47→40	41	187/253/267	80	273	7	3	33%	7%	49	-2.4	223/293/361	138	298	15	3	29%	8%	85	+0.2	237/307/395	158	306	18	1	27%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Matt Vierling 2021 · A	24	40→50	40→50	50	40	197/252/286	89	268	7	14	28%	5%	52	-2.2	241/298/355	114	302	11	14	23%	7%	85	+0.2	254/314/393	138	307	13	10	21%	7%	97	+1.0
✕Jerad Head 2007 · A	24	38→44	47→50	51→50	40	198/241/335	138	233	15	7	23%	4%	60	-1.6	211/274/338	127	267	12	10	25%	5%	73	-0.6	229/282/384	155	280	16	9	24%	4%	84	+0.1
●Jorge Bonifacio 2017 · AAA	24	42→51	45→50	47→45	41	212/265/337	124	278	13	6	28%	6%	69	-0.9	230/291/384	154	301	17	4	28%	7%	89	+0.5	219/282/375	156	286	18	3	29%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Sean Bouchard 2019 · A	23	39→44	44→55	48→50	38	198/249/313	115	283	11	13	33%	6%	57	-1.8	206/259/338	132	302	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	223/323/414	192	292	21	16	29%	12%	107	+0.9
●Jahmai Jones 2022 · MLB	24	40→50	43→50	49→50	44	200/261/306	105	267	10	14	28%	7%	60	-1.6	225/309/358	133	301	12	15	27%	9%	91	+0.6	248/345/422	173	324	16	18	26%	11%	114	+1.3
✕Jason Rogers 2012 · A	24	45→53	42→50	49→45	42	220/268/324	104	281	9	8	25%	6%	67	-1.1	241/302/375	134	295	13	7	22%	8%	91	+0.7	251/312/408	157	293	18	4	20%	8%	100	+1.1
✕Brian Rey 2021 · A	23	44	44→45	48→45	42	216/263/329	113	246	12	5	18%	4%	66	-1.1	230/289/336	106	276	11	7	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/298/334	99	277	11	7	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Daniel Arribas 2017 · A	24	43→41	42→40	49→45	44	210/278/313	103	282	10	7	28%	7%	68	-1.0	201/276/292	91	292	7	10	31%	8%	63	-1.4	128/236/162	34	217	0	15	36%	11%	19	-1.0
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	195/270/310	115	258	11	11	28%	8%	65	-1.2	209/297/348	139	287	16	6	31%	9%	84	+0.2	201/298/342	142	277	17	3	32%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Josh Petersen 2007 · A	24	42	40	45→40	36	207/244/298	91	283	8	5	30%	4%	51	-2.2	235/274/332	97	305	8	5	25%	4%	71	-0.8	252/293/347	94	319	7	4	22%	4%	78	-0.2
✕Aristides Aquino 2018 · AA	24	37→41	46→60	50	36	193/234/327	135	262	14	8	32%	4%	55	-2.0	213/263/400	187	267	26	9	31%	5%	84	+0.1	212/278/428	216	266	32	9	33%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Austin Listi 2018 · A	24	41→51	47→45	50→30	35	212/250/350	138	287	14	6	32%	4%	66	-1.1	231/302/366	135	290	15	2	25%	7%	90	+0.6	222/296/339	117	279	13	0	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Gage Green 2017 · A	24	42	40→45	46→50	40	206/268/295	88	284	8	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	204/262/292	88	281	7	8	28%	6%	57	-1.8	172/221/235	63	228	0	0	23%	4%	30	-0.7
✕Stuart Fairchild 2021 · AA	25	44→42	43→50	46→55	43	213/280/332	119	287	10	10	28%	7%	74	-0.6	223/300/374	151	295	16	13	28%	7%	91	+0.7	218/314/364	146	281	15	27	26%	9%	91	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps