Carter Graham1B
Dayton Dragons
Age 24
R/R
6'1" / 228 lbs
A+
HR +9%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .265 / .311
PA317
HR6
K%31
BB%6
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
40→40
PWR
35→35
SPD
50→50
EYE
42↘25
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.5peak
2029
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-4M | $-30M | -$26M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$26M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$26M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 40 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .152 | .282 | .182 | .464 | .030 | .278 | 40 | 10 | .229 | 33 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | 2 teams | 318 | 286 | 49 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 111 | 11 | 8 | 3 | .171 | .248 | .276 | .524 | .105 | .254 | 35 | 6 | .232 | 36 | -23 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +9 | -2.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | 2 teams | 408 | 369 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 121 | 9 | 12 | 2 | .203 | .265 | .306 | .571 | .103 | .273 | 30 | 5 | .248 | 48 | -24 | +2 | +0 | -7 | +12 | -1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 50 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .244 | .354 | .317 | .671 | .073 | .310 | 24 | 10 | .285 | 76 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CIN | 267 | 241 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 82 | 7 | 4 | 1 | .203 | .275 | .311 | .587 | .108 | .284 | 31 | 6 | .268 | 64 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +8 | -0.8 |
| TOT | 24 | MLB | CIN | 317 | 282 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 94 | 9 | 4 | 1 | .209 | .288 | .312 | .600 | .103 | .288 | 30 | 7 | .271 | 66 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +9 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB 10% | CIN | 350 | 314 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 95 | 8 | 6 | 1 | .213 | .288 | .328 | .616 | .115 | .277 | 27 | 7 | .280 | 72 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB 25% | CIN | 393 | 352 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 106 | 9 | 7 | 1 | .216 | .292 | .338 | .630 | .122 | .278 | 27 | 7 | .285 | 76 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +11 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB 43% | CIN | 411 | 368 | 79 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 110 | 9 | 7 | 1 | .215 | .292 | .334 | .626 | .120 | .279 | 27 | 8 | .287 | 78 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +12 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB 52% | CIN | 419 | 375 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 112 | 9 | 7 | 1 | .213 | .291 | .331 | .622 | .117 | .279 | 27 | 8 | .287 | 78 | -11 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +12 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB 63% | CIN | 416 | 372 | 79 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 113 | 9 | 7 | 1 | .212 | .291 | .331 | .621 | .118 | .278 | 27 | 8 | .285 | 76 | -11 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +12 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB 73% | CIN | 412 | 368 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 113 | 9 | 6 | 1 | .212 | .291 | .332 | .622 | .120 | .277 | 27 | 8 | .282 | 74 | -12 | +1 | -2 | -7 | +12 | -0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB 90% | CIN | 400 | 357 | 74 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 112 | 9 | 5 | 0 | .207 | .287 | .319 | .606 | .112 | .275 | 28 | 8 | .278 | 71 | -13 | +1 | -3 | -7 | +11 | -1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 383 | 343 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 109 | 8 | 5 | 0 | .207 | .284 | .321 | .605 | .114 | .274 | 28 | 8 | .273 | 67 | -14 | +1 | -4 | -7 | +11 | -1.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 354 | 317 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 103 | 7 | 4 | 0 | .205 | .282 | .315 | .598 | .110 | .272 | 29 | 8 | .268 | 63 | -15 | +1 | -4 | -6 | +10 | -1.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 311 | 278 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 93 | 6 | 4 | 0 | .198 | .276 | .295 | .571 | .097 | .270 | 30 | 8 | .262 | 58 | -15 | +1 | -5 | -6 | +9 | -1.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4882 | 4373 | 902 | 174 | 13 | 97 | 353 | 1396 | 112 | 84 | 12 | .206 | .283 | .319 | .601 | .112 | .276 | 29 | 7 | .272 | 67 | -184 | +12 | -20 | -87 | +138 | -14.3 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 582 | 120 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 186 | 15 | 11 | 2 | .206 | .282 | .320 | .602 | .113 | .276 | 29 | 7 | .272 | 67 | -24 | +1 | -3 | -12 | +18 | -1.9 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 40 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .194 | .359 | .226 | .585 | .032 | .286 | 28 | 15 | .287 | 78 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 131 | 117 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .188 | .269 | .359 | .628 | .171 | .250 | 34 | 8 | .281 | 74 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 187 | 162 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 38 | 8 | 5 | 2 | .235 | .330 | .364 | .694 | .130 | .285 | 20 | 8 | .314 | 99 | -0 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 229 | 206 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 50 | 6 | 7 | 1 | .248 | .311 | .354 | .665 | .107 | .301 | 22 | 6 | .298 | 86 | -4 | +1 | — | — | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 179 | 156 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .231 | .314 | .391 | .705 | .160 | .272 | 23 | 9 | .310 | 96 | -1 | +1 | — | — | +5 | 0.5 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Carter Graham (OGILVIE) | 24 | 40 | 35 | 50 | 25 | .200/.265/.311 | .111 | .281 | 6 | 6 | 31% | 6% | 59 | -0.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Kevin Heller 2014 · AA |
24 | 42→47 | 40 | 52→50 | 40 | .204/.265/.291 | .088 | .294 | 7 | 10 | 32% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .208/.287/.309 | .101 | .309 | 9 | 11 | 33% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .203/.290/.304 | .100 | .306 | 9 | 12 | 33% | 8% | 66 | -0.5 |
|
✕Brandon Lockridge 2021 · A |
24 | 40→50 | 44→45 | 50→65 | 37 | .199/.247/.317 | .118 | .283 | 11 | 12 | 33% | 5% | 52 | -1.6 | .224/.273/.354 | .130 | .321 | 14 | 21 | 33% | 5% | 72 | -0.2 | .254/.322/.337 | .083 | .358 | 3 | 53 | 27% | 8% | 84 | +0.4 |
|
✕Josh Petersen 2007 · A |
24 | 42 | 41→45 | 46→40 | 36 | .208/.246/.300 | .092 | .285 | 8 | 5 | 30% | 4% | 46 | -2.0 | .234/.273/.333 | .099 | .306 | 8 | 5 | 25% | 4% | 66 | -0.6 | .255/.295/.351 | .096 | .323 | 7 | 4 | 23% | 4% | 76 | +0.1 |
|
✕Preston Scott 2018 · A |
24 | 44 | 44→45 | 49→50 | 41 | .218/.283/.342 | .125 | .295 | 11 | 10 | 29% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .200/.255/.302 | .102 | .301 | 9 | 9 | 35% | 5% | 52 | -1.6 | .173/.222/.260 | .086 | .274 | 7 | 8 | 38% | 4% | 24 | -2.2 |
|
✕Logan Hill 2017 · A |
24 | 39→40 | 45→50 | 48→45 | 36 | .200/.252/.322 | .122 | .288 | 13 | 10 | 34% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .206/.268/.357 | .151 | .293 | 18 | 5 | 35% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .199/.266/.356 | .156 | .280 | 20 | 2 | 35% | 7% | 69 | -0.3 |
|
✕Daniel Arribas 2017 · A |
24 | 41→39 | 42→40 | 48→45 | 43 | .206/.270/.309 | .103 | .276 | 11 | 7 | 28% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .197/.271/.288 | .091 | .282 | 8 | 9 | 31% | 8% | 55 | -1.4 | .128/.235/.162 | .033 | .216 | 0 | 15 | 36% | 11% | 9 | -1.0 |
|
✕Jesse Wierzbicki 2013 · A |
24 | 44→45 | 44→45 | 52→45 | 42 | .214/.278/.335 | .120 | .298 | 11 | 7 | 30% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .220/.290/.326 | .106 | .267 | 9 | 7 | 20% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .217/.292/.321 | .103 | .257 | 9 | 6 | 18% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 |
|
✕Barrett Barnes 2015 · A |
24 | 42→52 | 45 | 51→50 | 42 | .211/.272/.329 | .118 | .281 | 12 | 14 | 29% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .225/.291/.346 | .121 | .294 | 11 | 13 | 26% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .220/.296/.347 | .127 | .310 | 12 | 7 | 31% | 7% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕John Norwood 2017 · A |
24 | 43→48 | 42→45 | 47→50 | 40 | .208/.266/.311 | .102 | .294 | 9 | 15 | 31% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .221/.276/.334 | .113 | .322 | 11 | 10 | 33% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .220/.274/.334 | .114 | .321 | 12 | 8 | 34% | 7% | 63 | -0.7 |
|
✕Gavin Dickey 2008 · A |
24 | 42 | 44→45 | 47→55 | 36 | .210/.254/.328 | .118 | .290 | 12 | 13 | 31% | 4% | 58 | -1.2 | .220/.268/.317 | .097 | .300 | 7 | 16 | 28% | 4% | 61 | -1.0 | .227/.277/.310 | .083 | .306 | 4 | 21 | 26% | 3% | 61 | -0.5 |
|
✕Trey Amburgey 2019 · AA |
24 | 41→44 | 45→50 | 51→50 | 36 | .210/.251/.328 | .118 | .278 | 13 | 11 | 29% | 4% | 56 | -1.3 | .221/.262/.366 | .145 | .287 | 16 | 8 | 28% | 4% | 72 | -0.2 | .205/.250/.354 | .149 | .274 | 17 | 4 | 31% | 5% | 60 | -0.6 |
|
✕Tyler Chism 2013 · A |
24 | 43 | 42→45 | 46→50 | 40 | .210/.273/.312 | .102 | .289 | 10 | 7 | 30% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .218/.279/.318 | .100 | .298 | 10 | 11 | 29% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .217/.284/.304 | .087 | .292 | 10 | 12 | 28% | 7% | 62 | -0.5 |
|
●Austin Listi 2018 · A |
24 | 41→51 | 47→45 | 50→30 | 35 | .211/.250/.348 | .137 | .284 | 14 | 6 | 31% | 4% | 61 | -1.0 | .234/.305/.376 | .142 | .295 | 16 | 2 | 25% | 7% | 92 | +1.2 | .225/.299/.351 | .125 | .283 | 15 | 0 | 25% | 7% | 82 | +0.3 |
|
✕Devin Shines 2013 · A |
24 | 43 | 44→50 | 50 | 38 | .213/.267/.329 | .116 | .296 | 12 | 11 | 31% | 5% | 64 | -0.8 | .197/.251/.295 | .098 | .281 | 9 | 9 | 31% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .154/.209/.224 | .069 | .218 | 5 | 7 | 31% | 6% | 9 | -1.5 |
|
✕Trenton Moses 2013 · A |
24 | 46 | 41→45 | 48→30 | 39 | .224/.273/.323 | .100 | .304 | 8 | 5 | 28% | 5% | 64 | -0.8 | .234/.294/.340 | .106 | .322 | 8 | 3 | 28% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .243/.309/.358 | .115 | .334 | 8 | 0 | 27% | 6% | 84 | +0.4 |
|
✕Ronnie Richardson 2014 · A |
24 | 44 | 42→40 | 48→50 | 45 | .213/.275/.318 | .106 | .281 | 8 | 8 | 26% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .216/.308/.313 | .097 | .284 | 6 | 10 | 24% | 9% | 78 | +0.2 | .210/.315/.303 | .093 | .277 | 5 | 10 | 23% | 10% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Eudy Pina 2015 · A |
24 | 41→46 | 44→45 | 47→55 | 40 | .204/.262/.324 | .120 | .282 | 10 | 9 | 30% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .227/.267/.320 | .093 | .318 | 7 | 10 | 29% | 4% | 60 | -1.0 | .238/.270/.315 | .078 | .332 | 5 | 11 | 29% | 3% | 58 | -0.8 |
|
✕David Harris 2016 · A |
24 | 42 | 42→45 | 47→50 | 34 | .206/.246/.310 | .104 | .294 | 10 | 9 | 33% | 4% | 50 | -1.8 | .204/.249/.300 | .096 | .308 | 8 | 10 | 35% | 4% | 48 | -1.9 | .166/.207/.237 | .071 | .272 | 4 | 10 | 39% | 3% | 11 | -0.8 |
|
✕Marty Gantt 2014 · A |
24 | 47 | 40 | 54→50 | 40 | .222/.272/.318 | .095 | .311 | 7 | 12 | 30% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .219/.287/.321 | .102 | .300 | 7 | 11 | 27% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .211/.291/.314 | .104 | .282 | 7 | 11 | 26% | 9% | 67 | -0.3 |
|
✕Kyle Shelton 2010 · A |
24 | 47 | 43→45 | 49→40 | 36 | .229/.269/.337 | .108 | .324 | 10 | 6 | 32% | 4% | 66 | -0.6 | .231/.278/.335 | .104 | .309 | 9 | 5 | 27% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .230/.280/.323 | .092 | .299 | 8 | 4 | 25% | 5% | 65 | -0.3 |