Carter Graham

1B Dayton Dragons
Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 228 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422A+/ACIN318.215/.305/.3628839—.175/.248/.276
202523A+/ACIN408.240/.312/.37091249—.199/.257/.299
202624AA/A+/INTL2 orgs601.291/.419/.5452916116—.249/.346/.455
2027PROJMLE25MLBCIN1.211/.293/.3770086-0.0
2028PROJ22% MLB26MLBCIN56.213/.294/.3792186-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
wOBA88
ISO86
Chase%86
wRC+85
BB%78
K%54
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 82%
CompsBrandon Meredith (age 25) · Ryan McBroom (age 25) · Devin Mann (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†86
AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .293 / .377
PA1
HR0
K%27
BB%8
BABIP259
ISO155
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 ADaytona Tortugas — 4031 6100 6112 20 194359226585 32286 2815 287 37 — — — — — —
202422 A+Dayton Dragons — 131117 22505 10453 31 188269359628 171250 348 281 18 — — — — — —
202422 ADaytona Tortugas — 187162 381013 15388 52 235330364694 130285 208 314 53 — — — — — —
202523 A+Dayton Dragons — 229206 511004 13506 71 248311354665 107301 226 298 50 — — — — — —
202523 ADaytona Tortugas — 179156 36815 16413 51 231314391705 160272 239 310 47 — — — — — —
202624 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 260220 6114112 35625 62 277388514902 236336 2413 398 102 — — — — — —
202624 A+Dayton Dragons — 292233 7517017 455511 70 3224536141.067 292356 1915 458 131 — — — — — —
202624 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 4935 6400 10112 30 171383286669 114231 2220 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 4033 5100 4152 20 152282182464 30248 3810 223 37 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 131120 17403 7573 31 142208250458 108212 445 195 18 — — — — — —
202422 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 187167 33812 10528 52 198276293569 96254 285 246 53 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 229210 44803 9636 71 210262290553 81269 284 242 50 — — — — — —
202523 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 179161 30614 11553 51 186251311562 124229 316 238 47 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 260231 541319 24765 62 234319416735 182303 299 319 102 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 292247 6514014 317011 70 263370490860 227299 2411 362 131 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 4033 5100 4152 20 152282182464 30263 3810 223 37 — — — — — —
202321 A RAWDaytona Tortugas — 4031 6100 6112 20 194359226585 32286 2815 287 37 — — — — — —
202422 A MLE2 teams — 318287 481115 1710911 83 167241265506 98244 345 225 38 — — — — — —
202422 A RAW2 teams — 318279 601518 258311 83 215305362667 147272 268 301 38 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE2 teams — 408371 731416 201199 122 197255288543 92264 295 240 49 — — — — — —
202523 A+ RAW2 teams — 408362 871819 29919 122 240312370683 130289 227 303 49 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLE3 teams — 601518 13029125 6015818 162 251349456805 205310 2610 342 117 — — — — — —
202624 A+ RAW3 teams — 601488 14235129 9012818 162 291419545965 254337 2115 420 117 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 4034 5100 4152 20 147282176459 29248 3810 223 37 — — — — — —
202422 A MLE2 teams — 318287 481115 1710911 83 167241265506 98237 345 225 38 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE2 teams — 408376 731416 201199 122 194255285540 90251 295 240 49 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLE3 teams — 601518 13029125 6015818 162 251349456805 205301 2610 342 117 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A MLE2 teams — 318287 481115 1710911 83 167241265506 98237 345 225 38 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE2 teams — 408376 731416 201199 122 194255285540 90251 295 240 49 — — — — — —
202624 A+ MLE3 teams — 601518 13029125 6015818 162 251349456805 205301 2610 342 117 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLECIN 0% 380338 7115112 311038 71 209290366657 158258 278 295 86 -7 +1 +0 -7 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXCIN 0% 11 0000 000 00 211293377670 166259 00 300 86 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLECIN 22% 254226 481018 21695 41 210292368660 158259 278 296 86 -4 +0 +0 -5 +6 -0.3
202826 MLB CTXCIN 22% 5650 10202 5151 10 213294379674 166260 279 301 86 -1 +0 +0 -1 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 5650 10202 5151 10 200286360646 160242 279 301 79 -1 +0 +0 -1 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 11623023 5817412 120 200286359645 159243 279 301 79 -10 +2 +0 -12 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 18311622 34373451 13952749 469 211293356649 144275 298 285 79 -8 +1 +0 -8 +10 -0.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 12126118 4918717 163 210291352643 142273 298 285 79 -11 +1 +0 -12 +14 -0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 292 PAwOBA .449 → .362 (−87)K% 18.8% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.84%÷1.000×1.270——23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.41%÷1.000×0.710—×0.97810.70%
HBP% /PA3.77%—×0.790—×0.9782.91%
Singles /BIP23.03%÷1.000×0.920×0.990×0.97820.53%
Doubles /BIP9.55%÷1.000×0.810×0.990×0.9787.49%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×0.990×0.9780.00%
Home runs /BIP9.55%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9787.47%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .449 → .362; ISO .292 → .234; BABIP .356 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 260 PAwOBA .387 → .319 (−69)K% 23.8% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.85%÷1.000×1.220——29.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.46%÷1.000×0.680—×0.9989.14%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.840—×0.9981.61%
Singles /BIP21.52%÷1.000×0.920×1.004×0.99819.84%
Doubles /BIP8.86%÷1.000×0.910×1.004×0.9988.08%
Triples /BIP0.63%÷1.000×0.880×1.004×0.9980.56%
Home runs /BIP7.59%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9986.06%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .387 → .319; ISO .236 → .195; BABIP .336 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 229 PAwOBA .295 → .242 (−53)K% 21.8% → 27.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.83%÷0.999×1.270——27.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.68%÷1.006×0.710—×0.9883.96%
HBP% /PA2.62%—×0.790—×0.9882.05%
Singles /BIP23.72%÷0.987×0.920×0.993×0.98821.69%
Doubles /BIP6.41%÷0.928×0.810×0.993×0.9885.49%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850×0.993×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP2.56%÷1.124×0.800—×0.9881.80%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .295 → .242; ISO .107 → .080; BABIP .301 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 179 PAwOBA .309 → .238 (−72)K% 22.9% → 30.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.91%÷1.008×1.360——30.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.94%÷0.956×0.690—×0.9806.32%
HBP% /PA1.68%—×0.780—×0.9801.28%
Singles /BIP19.13%÷0.980×0.920×0.974×0.98017.15%
Doubles /BIP6.96%÷1.088×0.830×0.974×0.9805.07%
Triples /BIP0.87%÷1.000×0.910×0.974×0.9800.76%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷1.032×0.800—×0.9803.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .309 → .238; ISO .160 → .116; BABIP .272 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 187 PAwOBA .308 → .246 (−61)K% 20.3% → 27.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.32%÷0.990×1.360——27.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.49%÷0.991×0.690—×0.9905.16%
HBP% /PA4.28%—×0.780—×0.9903.30%
Singles /BIP19.35%÷0.960×0.920×0.993×0.99018.23%
Doubles /BIP8.06%÷1.032×0.830×0.993×0.9906.37%
Triples /BIP0.81%÷0.918×0.910×0.993×0.9900.79%
Home runs /BIP2.42%÷1.078×0.800—×0.9901.78%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .308 → .246; ISO .130 → .097; BABIP .285 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 131 PAwOBA .276 → .195 (−81)K% 34.4% → 43.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.35%÷1.006×1.270——43.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.63%÷0.976×0.710—×0.9985.54%
HBP% /PA2.29%—×0.790—×0.9981.81%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.023×0.920×0.986×0.99814.74%
Doubles /BIP6.94%÷0.941×0.810×0.986×0.9985.88%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.030×0.850×0.986×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP6.94%÷1.285×0.800—×0.9984.32%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .276 → .195; ISO .171 → .104; BABIP .250 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 40 PAwOBA .288 → .223 (−65)K% 27.5% → 37.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.50%÷1.006×1.360——37.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.00%÷1.006×0.690——10.29%
HBP% /PA5.00%—×0.780——3.90%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.032×0.920——22.28%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷1.100×0.830——3.77%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.083×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.060×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .288 → .223; ISO .032 → .024; BABIP .286 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .