Abraham Gaitan — OGILVIE

Abraham Gaitan P Daytona Tortugas

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%19.2%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	2	0	4	19	2	2	0	0%	2.0	10.5%	10.5%	0.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.54	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	2	0	4	19	2	2	0	0%	2.0	10.5%	10.5%	0.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.60	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	8	51	204	36	14	1	62%	3.9	12.0%	8.6%	3.4%	0.7%	2.45	3.58	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	8	51	204	36	14	1	62%	3.9	12.0%	8.6%	3.4%	0.7%	2.45	3.58	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	8	51	204	36	14	1	62%	3.9	17.6%	6.9%	10.8%	0.5%	2.45	2.77	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	13	3	23	108	14	11	0	23%	1.8	8.8%	12.7%	-3.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.97	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	13	3	23	108	14	11	0	23%	1.8	8.8%	12.7%	-3.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.97	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	13	3	23	108	14	11	0	23%	1.8	13.0%	10.2%	2.8%	0.0%	4.70	3.32	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	16	0	32	141	36	9	8	0%	2.0	17.4%	8.0%	9.4%	6.3%	5.06	6.13	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	16	0	32	141	36	9	8	0%	2.0	17.4%	8.0%	9.4%	6.3%	5.06	6.13	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	16	0	32	141	36	9	8	0%	2.0	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	5.7%	5.06	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	30	0	60	276	45	24	4	0%	2.0	12.1%	10.3%	1.8%	1.9%	6.71	4.42	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	30	0	60	276	45	24	4	0%	2.0	12.1%	10.3%	1.8%	1.9%	6.71	4.42	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CIN	30	0	60	276	45	24	4	0%	2.0	16.3%	8.7%	7.6%	1.4%	6.71	3.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	61	259	53	23	8	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.57	4.50	+0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	60	0	63	265	57	23	8	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.46	4.39	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	269	59	23	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.4%	13.4%	3.0%	4.38	4.33	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	269	59	23	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.31	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	60	0	63	264	58	22	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	29	0	30	127	26	11	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.57	4.50	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	42	0	44	186	40	16	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.46	4.39	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	50	0	52	220	48	18	7	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.4%	13.4%	3.0%	4.38	4.33	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	53	0	56	236	52	20	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.31	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	54	0	57	241	53	20	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	0	238	1003	218	85	30	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.40	3.98	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	72	25	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.40	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		74	11	171	748	94	73	16	15%	2.3	12.5%	9.7%	2.8%	2.1%	4.80	4.42	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	13	200	877	110	85	18	15%	2.3	12.5%	9.7%	2.8%	2.1%	4.80	4.42	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abraham Gaitan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	19.2%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.41	21.3%	12.7%	188	-0.30	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	93
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	88
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	87
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	87
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	86
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	86
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	85
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	85
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	85
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	85
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	85
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	84
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	84
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	55	21.5%	8.5%	1.16	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04