Jacob Edwards
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 26
LHP
5'9" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120129vR 138
ERA5.30
FIP5.30
K%15.7%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%3.0%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 30.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.06 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 30.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.60 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 23 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 46 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 2.1 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 3.88 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 23 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 46 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 2.1 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 1.0% | 3.88 | 2.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 15 | 1 | 46 | 188 | 38 | 14 | 1 | 7% | 3.1 | 15.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 0.7% | 2.35 | 3.24 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 5.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 106 | 439 | 77 | 46 | 8 | — | — | 17.6% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 1.8% | 4.01 | 4.40 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 41 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 40 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.21 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.21 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 39 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 5.21 | 4.87 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 141 | 105 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 5.21 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 1 | 97 | 407 | 64 | 43 | 4 | 2% | 2.4 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 0.9% | 3.07 | 3.59 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 2 | 200 | 842 | 133 | 88 | 8 | 2% | 2.4 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 0.9% | 3.07 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Edwards (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | — | 5.24 | 16.6% | 4.3% | 115 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 86 |
| Sean Keselica L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 235 | 81 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 80 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 79 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 79 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .258 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 4.6% | 144 | +0.04 | 4.44 | 188 | 79 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.43 | 13.9% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 212 | 79 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.44 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | 4.82 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 142 | +0.38 | 3.26 | 634 | 78 |
| Will Lamb L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 78 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 219 | 77 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2024 · 5.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.53 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 4.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 128 | 77 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 77 |
| Justin Thomas L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.23 | 13.1% | 10.4% | 1.7% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 105 | 76 |
| Justin Wright L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.48 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 76 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 76 |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 12.1% | 13.3% | 2.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 195 | 75 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 75 |
| Randy Labaut L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.91 | 17.1% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .244 | 5.21 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 98 | +0.30 | 1.91 | 302 | 75 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.0% | .279 | 4.19 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 161 | -0.01 | 3.58 | 307 | 75 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 16.3% | 12.4% | 1.12 | 5.24 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |