Jacob Edwards
P
Dayton Dragons
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
LHP
5'9" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.2%
IP41
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL4040
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 23 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 46 | 20 | 2 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 1.2% | 3.88 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 2 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 48 | 204 | 45 | 21 | 5 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 34 | 19 | 5 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 33 | 18 | 5 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 28 | 17 | 5 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 5.11 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 18.9% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 5.22 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 22 | 15 | 4 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 45 | 28 | 3 | 18.2% | 11.1% | 1.0% | 3.59 | 3.54 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 0 | 200 | 860 | 156 | 97 | 10 | 18.2% | 11.1% | 1.0% | 3.59 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Edwards (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.74 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 121 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 88 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 88 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 86 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 85 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 85 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 85 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 85 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 84 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 84 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 84 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 82 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.35 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.19 | 3.66 | 330 | 82 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 82 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 81 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.54 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.74 | 3.00 | 226 | 81 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 81 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.59 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.71 | 2.93 | 367 | 81 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 81 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 81 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.