Jacob Edwards — OGILVIE

Jacob Edwards P Dayton Dragons

Age 26 LHP 5'9" / 190 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%15.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	0	2	10	1	3	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	30.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.06	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	0	2	10	1	3	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	30.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.60	—
2025	25	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	49	209	46	20	2	0%	2.1	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	1.2%	3.88	3.82	—
2025	25	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	49	209	46	20	2	0%	2.1	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	1.2%	3.88	3.82	—
2025	25	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	49	209	46	20	2	0%	2.1	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	1.0%	3.88	2.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	25	1	64	279	54	25	5	4%	2.6	15.0%	10.3%	4.7%	1.5%	3.64	3.94	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	25	1	64	279	54	25	5	4%	2.6	15.0%	10.3%	4.7%	1.5%	3.64	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	CIN	23	1	59	256	50	23	3	4%	2.6	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	1.2%	3.66	3.23	—
2026	26	AA RAW	CIN	2	0	5	23	4	2	2	0%	2.6	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	3.38	7.51	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CIN	5	0	5	23	4	3	1	0%	1.1	15.7%	12.8%	2.8%	2.8%	5.33	5.33	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	70	302	58	28	6	—	—	19.1%	9.3%	9.8%	1.9%	3.77	4.05	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	59	0	62	262	43	33	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.6%	3.9%	2.9%	5.25	5.26	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	57	0	60	254	43	32	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	12.5%	4.3%	3.0%	5.24	5.28	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	22	0	23	97	16	12	3	0%	1.0	16.4%	12.6%	3.9%	2.9%	5.25	5.26	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	33	0	35	148	25	18	4	0%	1.1	16.8%	12.5%	4.3%	3.0%	5.24	5.28	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	58	246	41	31	7	0%	1.0	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	2.9%	5.24	4.89	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	141	106	24	0%	1.1	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	2.9%	5.24	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		50	1	115	498	77	55	7	2%	2.3	15.5%	11.1%	4.3%	1.3%	3.68	3.93	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	2	200	866	134	96	11	2%	2.3	15.5%	11.1%	4.3%	1.3%	3.68	3.93	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Edwards (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	15.7%	12.8%	2.8%	—	5.27	16.6%	4.1%	122	-0.06	—	—	—
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	86
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	81
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	81
T.J. Sikkema L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	16.1%	13.2%	4.8%	.245	3.86	17.1%	9.6%	159	-2.18	3.57	300	80
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	80
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	79
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	79
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	79
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	78
Rob Zastryzny L 2018 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	18.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.264	4.81	19.8%	10.8%	142	+0.50	3.34	634	78
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	78
Justin Thomas L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	13.1%	10.4%	1.7%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	105	78
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	78
Randy Labaut L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	26	SU	4.73	16.8%	13.9%	2.4%	.244	4.99	17.7%	5.4%	98	+0.26	1.91	302	78
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	77
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	77
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	77
Phil Pfeifer L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.4%	15.7%	1.0%	.279	4.06	21.4%	11.5%	161	-0.09	3.61	307	76
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	76
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	16.3%	12.6%	1.12	5.27
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74