Irving Cota
P
Brooklyn Cyclones
+0.5
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'5" / 175 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.1 · 2031
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.5%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%12.2%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.1peak
2031
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 14 | 2 | 39 | 171 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 17.1% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 3.66 | 2.49 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 17 | 1 | 46 | 194 | 53 | 13 | 6 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.96 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 25 | 12 | 99 | 406 | 85 | 22 | 6 | 15.1% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 4.20 | 3.85 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 2 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 73 | 30 | 10 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 91 | 385 | 76 | 32 | 10 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 98 | 36 | 13 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 118 | 41 | 15 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.15 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 140 | 592 | 132 | 45 | 17 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.10 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 147 | 622 | 140 | 47 | 18 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.08 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 150 | 634 | 143 | 48 | 18 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.09 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 150 | 632 | 143 | 48 | 18 | 22.6% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +2.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 146 | 618 | 139 | 47 | 18 | 22.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 133 | 46 | 18 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +1.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 137 | 578 | 127 | 45 | 18 | 22.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 132 | 555 | 121 | 44 | 17 | 21.7% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 114 | 43 | 17 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 106 | 42 | 17 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 98 | 41 | 16 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 16 | 190 | 798 | 130 | 55 | 18 | 16.3% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 3.64 | 3.82 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 17 | 200 | 839 | 137 | 58 | 19 | 16.3% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 3.64 | 3.82 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Irving Cota (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.16 | 22.0% | 14.3% | 375 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Osmer Morales R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .319 | 4.56 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 345 | +0.26 | 3.14 | 429 | 94 |
| Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.25 | 3.94 | 138 | 94 |
| David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 93 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .293 | 3.81 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 69 | -0.48 | 3.51 | 157 | 93 |
| Nick Davila R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.89 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.07 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 196 | +0.18 | 3.46 | 341 | 93 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 92 |
| Nick Dean R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.99 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 65 | +0.16 | 3.83 | 155 | 92 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 91 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 91 |
| Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 91 |
| Riley Thompson R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 91 |
| Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 91 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | 4.96 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.64 | 4.32 | 292 | 91 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 90 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .335 | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.37 | 3.55 | 357 | 90 |
| Jake Christianson R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 90 |
| Connor Johnstone R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .272 | 4.53 | 12.9% | 7.9% | 166 | +0.13 | 3.81 | 319 | 90 |
| Blake Beers R 2028 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 90 |
| Logan Martin R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 89 |
| Max Gamboa R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.97 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .334 | 3.99 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.02 | 3.97 | 162 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.1 | $19M | +$19M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.9 | $19M | +$15M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.7 | $17M | +$13M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.6 | $17M | +$10M |
| Totals | $17M | $109M | +$92M | ||