Irving Cota — OGILVIE

Irving Cota P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%14.4%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	14	2	39	171	43	9	0	14%	2.8	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	0.0%	3.66	2.49	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	14	2	39	171	43	9	0	14%	2.8	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	0.0%	3.66	2.49	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	14	2	39	171	43	9	0	14%	2.8	25.1%	5.3%	19.9%	0.0%	3.66	1.60	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	46	194	53	13	6	6%	2.7	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	4.6%	2.96	5.05	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	46	194	53	13	6	6%	2.7	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	4.6%	2.96	5.05	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	1	46	194	53	13	6	6%	2.7	27.3%	6.7%	20.6%	3.1%	2.96	3.34	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	99	406	85	22	6	48%	3.9	15.1%	6.4%	8.8%	2.2%	4.20	3.81	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	99	406	85	22	6	48%	3.9	15.1%	6.4%	8.8%	2.2%	4.20	3.81	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	12	99	406	85	22	6	48%	3.9	20.9%	5.4%	15.5%	1.5%	4.20	2.84	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	10	7	31	127	21	6	2	70%	3.1	11.5%	7.3%	4.1%	0.0%	2.30	3.06	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	10	7	31	127	21	6	2	70%	3.1	11.5%	7.3%	4.1%	0.0%	2.30	3.06	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	2	1	2	9	3	0	0	50%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	4.50	0.29	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	7	5	25	94	14	6	0	71%	3.5	14.9%	6.4%	8.5%	0.0%	0.73	2.65	—
2026	22	AA RAW	NYM	1	1	5	24	4	0	2	100%	4.7	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	8.3%	9.64	6.27	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	NYM	1	1	5	23	3	2	1	100%	5.4	14.4%	7.5%	6.8%	2.9%	4.81	4.81	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	37	150	24	8	3	—	—	16.2%	5.2%	11.1%	1.8%	2.67	3.32	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	88	0	92	389	64	28	11	0%	1.0	16.4%	7.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.58	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	90	0	94	399	70	28	11	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.45	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	91	0	96	404	73	28	11	0%	1.1	18.2%	7.0%	11.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.38	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	91	0	96	404	75	28	11	0%	1.1	18.5%	6.9%	11.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.35	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	90	0	94	398	74	28	11	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.39	4.39	+0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	87	0	91	386	71	28	12	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.48	+0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	83	0	87	369	67	27	12	0%	1.1	18.1%	7.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.61	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	78	0	82	347	62	27	12	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.7%	10.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.78	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	44	0	46	194	32	14	6	0%	1.0	16.4%	7.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.58	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	63	0	66	279	49	20	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.45	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	74	0	78	329	60	23	9	0%	1.1	18.2%	7.0%	11.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.38	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	80	0	84	355	66	25	10	0%	1.1	18.5%	6.9%	11.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.35	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	81	0	85	359	66	25	10	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.39	4.39	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	80	0	84	355	65	25	11	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.48	+0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	77	0	81	342	62	25	11	0%	1.1	18.1%	7.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.61	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	73	0	77	325	58	25	11	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.7%	10.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.78	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		571	0	600	2534	457	182	75	0%	1.1	18.0%	7.2%	10.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.12	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	61	25	0%	1.1	18.0%	7.2%	10.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		66	22	215	898	142	62	18	33%	3.3	15.8%	6.9%	8.9%	2.0%	3.56	3.72	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	20	200	835	132	58	16	33%	3.3	15.8%	6.9%	8.9%	2.0%	3.56	3.72	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Irving Cota (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	14.4%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.47	17.4%	10.3%	282	-0.34	—	—	—
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	88
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	88
Joshua Torres R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	21	SW	4.47	12.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.308	2.63	23.4%	15.2%	108	-1.84	2.14	217	87
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	87
Matt Smith R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	22	SW	3.77	13.0%	6.4%	1.7%	.340	5.04	14.2%	6.7%	115	+1.27	3.77	163	87
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	87
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	86
Colton Hock R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	22	SW	4.60	14.6%	6.1%	3.6%	.304	3.53	18.8%	10.5%	102	-1.07	3.29	253	86
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	85
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	84
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	84
Yeizo Campos R 2018 · 3.63 FIP	22	SW	3.63	17.0%	7.2%	1.9%	.314	4.21	18.3%	11.1%	106	+0.58	2.27	320	83
Kevin McCanna R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	15.4%	8.2%	1.6%	.316	3.46	20.7%	11.7%	152	-0.23	2.70	265	83
Nick Davila R 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.04	17.2%	11.0%	196	+0.16	3.51	368	83
Mike Paredes R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	13.8%	5.6%	4.2%	.282	3.52	17.5%	10.2%	230	-1.44	2.86	399	82
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	82
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	82
Brady Puckett R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	11.0%	5.7%	1.4%	.323	2.70	14.0%	9.9%	119	-0.97	2.70	294	82
Kyle Smith R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	23	SW	5.05	14.7%	8.7%	3.8%	.326	3.31	15.2%	9.5%	76	-1.74	3.31	159	82
Felipe Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.18 FIP	23	SW	4.18	13.9%	7.8%	2.3%	.288	5.04	16.5%	6.6%	181	+0.86	3.27	339	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	88	17.7%	7.2%	1.14	4.52
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14