Mike Paredes
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
K%17.2%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p1011.7%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 42.9% | 7.1% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 0.39 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 42.9% | 7.1% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 0.85 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 24 | 13 | 85 | 338 | 63 | 16 | 11 | 54% | 3.6 | 13.8% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 3.27 | 4.96 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 24 | 13 | 85 | 338 | 63 | 16 | 11 | 54% | 3.6 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 3.27 | 3.86 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 3 | 63 | 262 | 58 | 20 | 4 | 11% | 2.2 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 3.14 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 3 | 63 | 262 | 58 | 20 | 4 | 11% | 2.2 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 1.5% | 3.14 | 3.04 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 3 | 66 | 263 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 10% | 2.1 | 17.9% | 5.8% | 12.1% | 1.0% | 3.02 | 2.89 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 3 | 66 | 263 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 10% | 2.1 | 23.2% | 4.9% | 18.3% | 0.8% | 3.02 | 2.23 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 2 | 106 | 426 | 92 | 28 | 8 | 5% | 2.8 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 2.38 | 3.84 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 2 | 106 | 426 | 92 | 28 | 8 | 5% | 2.8 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 2.38 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 20 | 15 | 78 | 328 | 69 | 20 | 14 | 75% | 3.9 | 18.6% | 6.2% | 12.4% | 4.6% | 4.50 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 41 | 172 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 119 | 500 | 99 | 32 | 19 | — | — | 19.7% | 6.4% | 13.3% | 3.8% | 4.39 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 70 | 296 | 99 | 32 | 19 | — | — | 33.3% | 10.8% | 22.5% | 6.5% | 7.45 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 46 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 46 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 44 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 44 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 44 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 42 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 196 | 13 | 260 | 1101 | 174 | 88 | 37 | 7% | 1.3 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.62 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 10 | 200 | 848 | 134 | 68 | 28 | 7% | 1.3 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 37 | 402 | 1631 | 280 | 110 | 46 | 26% | 2.8 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 3.20 | 4.05 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 18 | 200 | 812 | 139 | 55 | 23 | 26% | 2.8 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 3.20 | 4.05 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mike Paredes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.90 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 200 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 88 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.20 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.46 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.74 | 3.46 | 274 | 86 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 83 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 83 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 178 | 83 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 82 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.88 | 13.8% | 5.6% | 2.2% | .328 | 3.59 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 109 | -0.29 | 3.44 | 302 | 82 |
| Chad Jenkins R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 3.88 | 12.5% | 0.4% | 30 | +0.26 | 3.62 | 123 | 82 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 82 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 81 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.47 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 120 | +0.19 | 4.28 | 205 | 81 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 81 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 81 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 80 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 80 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 80 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 80 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 79 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 16.2% | 7.9% | 1.18 | 4.75 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |