Mike Paredes
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.9
WAR
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%11.7%
IP88
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 24 | 13 | 85 | 338 | 63 | 16 | 11 | 13.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.27 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 28 | 3 | 63 | 262 | 58 | 20 | 4 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 3.14 | 3.69 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 31 | 3 | 66 | 263 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 17.9% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 3.02 | 2.87 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 38 | 2 | 106 | 426 | 92 | 28 | 8 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 2.38 | 3.82 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 4 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 28.8% | 1.9% | 6.1% | 7.07 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 73 | 29 | 10 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 102 | 429 | 94 | 30 | 13 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.26 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 77 | 31 | 10 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 92 | 386 | 77 | 31 | 11 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 76 | 30 | 11 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 73 | 30 | 10 | 19.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 69 | 29 | 10 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 66 | 29 | 10 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 68 | 25 | 10 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 64 | 25 | 10 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 59 | 24 | 10 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 54 | 23 | 9 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 49 | 22 | 9 | 19.4% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 127 | 25 | 338 | 1362 | 236 | 90 | 35 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 3.07 | 3.88 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 15 | 200 | 807 | 140 | 53 | 21 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 3.07 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mike Paredes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.30 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 272 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 93 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 92 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 90 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 88 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 88 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 88 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 87 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 86 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 86 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 85 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 85 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 85 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 85 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 84 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 15.8% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .265 | 4.32 | 14.4% | 4.2% | 208 | +1.03 | 2.19 | 404 | 84 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 84 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2023 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 84 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 84 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $8M | $19M | +$11M | ||