Mike Paredes — OGILVIE

Mike Paredes P Minnesota Twins

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.01

FIP4.01

K%17.0%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p1019.3%

p1012.3%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	1	4	14	6	1	0	50%	2.0	42.9%	7.1%	35.7%	0.0%	2.25	0.39	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	1	4	14	6	1	0	50%	2.0	42.9%	7.1%	35.7%	0.0%	2.25	0.85	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	24	13	85	338	63	16	11	54%	3.6	13.8%	5.6%	8.2%	4.2%	3.27	4.96	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	24	13	85	338	63	16	11	54%	3.6	18.6%	4.7%	13.9%	3.3%	3.27	3.86	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	3	63	262	58	20	4	11%	2.2	17.0%	8.8%	8.3%	1.7%	3.14	3.70	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	3	63	262	58	20	4	11%	2.2	17.0%	8.8%	8.3%	1.7%	3.14	3.70	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	3	63	262	58	20	4	11%	2.2	22.1%	7.6%	14.5%	1.5%	3.14	3.04	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	3	66	263	61	13	2	10%	2.1	17.9%	5.8%	12.1%	1.0%	3.02	2.86	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	3	66	263	61	13	2	10%	2.1	17.9%	5.8%	12.1%	1.0%	3.02	2.86	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	3	66	263	61	13	2	10%	2.1	23.2%	4.9%	18.3%	0.8%	3.02	2.23	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	106	426	92	28	8	5%	2.8	17.6%	7.3%	10.2%	2.3%	2.38	3.82	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	106	426	92	28	8	5%	2.8	17.6%	7.3%	10.2%	2.3%	2.38	3.82	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	2	106	426	92	28	8	5%	2.8	21.6%	6.6%	15.0%	1.9%	2.38	3.14	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	5	34	154	19	13	6	56%	3.8	12.3%	8.4%	3.9%	3.9%	4.72	5.40	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	22	15	83	354	73	22	14	68%	3.8	17.9%	6.0%	11.9%	4.3%	4.55	4.69	+0.2
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	22	15	83	354	73	22	14	68%	3.8	17.9%	6.0%	11.9%	4.3%	4.55	4.69	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	MIN	4	3	14	59	21	1	3	75%	3.5	35.6%	1.7%	33.9%	5.1%	7.07	3.10	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	MIN	9	7	35	141	33	8	5	78%	3.9	23.4%	5.7%	17.7%	3.5%	3.38	3.79	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	MIN	9	5	34	154	19	13	6	56%	3.8	12.3%	8.4%	3.9%	3.9%	4.72	5.27	-0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	MIN	9	5	34	154	19	13	6	56%	3.8	12.3%	8.4%	3.9%	3.9%	4.72	5.27	-0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	6.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.01	4.01	—
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	6.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.02	4.02	—
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	83	354	73	22	14	—	—	20.6%	6.2%	14.4%	4.0%	4.55	4.69	+0.1
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	34	145	73	22	14	—	—	50.4%	15.2%	35.2%	9.7%	11.01	6.07	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	89	0	94	396	62	30	12	0%	1.1	15.7%	7.5%	8.1%	3.0%	4.73	4.74	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	87	0	91	384	62	30	12	0%	1.0	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.1%	4.75	4.79	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	83	0	87	366	59	29	12	0%	1.0	16.1%	7.9%	8.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.89	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	78	0	82	345	55	28	12	0%	1.0	15.9%	8.2%	7.7%	3.4%	4.96	5.05	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	85	0	89	376	59	28	11	0%	1.0	15.7%	7.5%	8.1%	3.0%	4.74	4.75	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	82	0	86	363	58	28	11	0%	1.0	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.1%	4.76	4.80	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	78	0	82	346	56	27	11	0%	1.1	16.1%	7.9%	8.2%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	74	0	78	329	52	27	11	0%	1.1	15.9%	8.2%	7.7%	3.4%	4.97	5.06	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		328	5	370	1570	244	124	51	2%	1.1	15.6%	7.9%	7.7%	3.2%	4.81	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	3	200	849	132	67	28	2%	1.1	15.6%	7.9%	7.7%	3.2%	4.81	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		145	37	407	1657	282	111	46	26%	2.8	17.0%	6.7%	10.4%	2.8%	3.23	4.04	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	18	200	815	139	54	23	26%	2.8	17.0%	6.7%	10.4%	2.8%	3.23	4.04	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mike Paredes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	16.4%	7.0%	2.6%	—	4.80	15.9%	8.2%	271	+0.38	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	88
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	87
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	85
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	82
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	82
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	82
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	82
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	82
Kolton Mahoney R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	26	SW	3.93	13.8%	5.6%	2.3%	.328	3.56	19.4%	10.6%	109	-0.37	3.56	302	82
Chad Jenkins R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	27	SW	3.59	13.1%	6.5%	1.4%	.296	3.92	12.5%	0.4%	30	+0.33	3.59	123	81
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	81
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	81
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	80
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	80
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	80
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	80
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	80
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	83	16.0%	7.7%	1.19	4.75
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38