Hunter Riggins prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Hunter Riggins P Rome Braves

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%19.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	2	1	3	13	4	1	0	50%	1.5	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	0.0%	3.00	1.48	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	2	1	3	13	4	1	0	50%	1.5	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	0.0%	3.00	1.43	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	27	10	81	353	67	35	8	37%	3.0	14.6%	11.4%	3.2%	2.8%	5.13	4.83	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	27	10	81	353	67	35	8	37%	3.0	14.6%	11.4%	3.2%	2.8%	5.13	4.83	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	27	10	81	353	67	35	8	37%	3.0	19.0%	9.9%	9.1%	2.3%	5.13	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	10.4%	9.3%	3.0%	4.77	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	ATL	52	0	55	231	46	24	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	3.1%	4.78	4.81	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	ATL	50	0	52	221	44	23	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	ATL	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	3.1%	4.78	4.81	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	ATL	28	0	29	122	25	13	4	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	0	49	206	41	22	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.2%	4.82	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	90	29	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.2%	4.82	4.49	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		29	11	84	366	56	41	10	38%	2.9	15.2%	11.3%	3.9%	2.7%	5.06	4.71	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	26	200	875	133	99	23	38%	2.9	15.2%	11.3%	3.9%	2.7%	5.06	4.71	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Riggins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	19.8%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.85	20.0%	9.5%	107	+0.08	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	84
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	83
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	82
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	80
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	79
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	79
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	77
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	77
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	77
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	76
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	76
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	75
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	75
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	75
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	19.9%	10.5%	1.20	4.80
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01