Nate Ackenhausen

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 256 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+KC	5	0	9	0.00	1.77	31.0%	6.9%	—	K 31.0% · BB 6.9% · FIP 1.35
2025	23	MIX3 levels	31	2	42	3.61	4.45	25.1%	13.1%	—	K 19.8% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	19	0	20	4.89	4.89	21.1%	11.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBKC	16	0	17	4.82	4.81	21.6%	11.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsHector Mercado (age 26) · Nick Hagadone (age 26) · Mitchell Tyranski (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%21.1%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	5	0	9	29	9	2	0	0%	1.8	31.0%	6.9%	24.1%	0.0%	0.00	1.35	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	5	0	9	29	9	2	0	0%	1.8	31.0%	6.9%	24.1%	0.0%	0.00	1.35	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	5	0	9	29	9	2	0	0%	1.8	31.0%	6.9%	24.1%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	42	191	48	25	6	6%	1.4	19.8%	13.6%	6.1%	4.0%	3.61	5.34	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	42	191	48	25	6	6%	1.4	19.8%	13.6%	6.1%	4.0%	3.61	5.34	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	2	42	191	48	25	6	6%	1.4	25.1%	13.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.61	4.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	36	0	38	161	35	19	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.82	4.81	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	16	0	17	72	15	8	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.82	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	15	8	2	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.82	4.43	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	96	24	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.82	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		36	2	51	220	47	28	8	6%	1.4	21.2%	12.8%	8.5%	3.5%	2.98	4.82	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	8	200	857	182	109	30	6%	1.4	21.2%	12.8%	8.5%	3.5%	2.98	4.82	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Ackenhausen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	21.1%	11.9%	3.1%	—	4.81	21.6%	10.0%	38	-0.08	—	—	—
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	91
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	89
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	88
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	86
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	85
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	85
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	85
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	84
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	84
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	83
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	83
Jason Kershner L 2002 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	16.8%	12.1%	2.8%	.233	4.04	14.5%	8.1%	76	-0.72	3.87	100	83
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	82
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	82
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	82
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	81
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	81
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	81
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.4%	11.7%	1.19	4.84
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68