Joel Hurtado — OGILVIE

Joel Hurtado P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION132 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%15.0%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%3.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD4045

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	5	4	18	74	21	9	3	80%	3.6	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	7.1%	3.50	7.28	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	5	4	18	74	21	9	3	80%	3.6	28.4%	12.2%	16.2%	4.1%	3.50	4.43	—
2023	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	10	78	342	90	31	2	45%	3.5	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	0.8%	5.42	3.28	—
2023	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	10	78	342	90	31	2	45%	3.5	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	0.8%	5.42	3.28	—
2023	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	22	10	78	342	90	31	2	45%	3.5	26.3%	9.1%	17.3%	0.6%	5.42	2.32	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	139	629	134	82	8	100%	5.3	16.4%	15.0%	1.4%	1.7%	4.61	4.57	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	139	629	134	82	8	100%	5.3	16.4%	15.0%	1.4%	1.7%	4.61	4.57	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	139	629	134	82	8	100%	5.3	21.3%	13.0%	8.3%	1.3%	4.61	3.69	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	92	381	59	28	6	100%	4.8	12.5%	8.2%	4.3%	1.9%	2.75	4.14	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	92	381	59	28	6	100%	4.8	12.5%	8.2%	4.3%	1.9%	2.75	4.14	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	92	381	59	28	6	100%	4.8	15.5%	7.3%	8.1%	1.6%	2.75	3.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	27	27	132	572	109	55	23	100%	4.9	15.5%	10.0%	5.5%	4.7%	4.76	5.63	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	27	27	132	572	109	55	23	100%	4.9	15.5%	10.0%	5.5%	4.7%	4.76	5.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	LAA	20	20	102	423	83	38	16	100%	5.1	19.6%	9.0%	10.6%	3.8%	3.63	4.66	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	LAA	7	7	31	149	26	17	7	100%	4.4	17.4%	11.4%	6.0%	4.7%	8.51	5.65	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	13	55	8	7	1	100%	6.6	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	2.5%	5.08	5.08	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	145	627	117	62	24	—	—	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	3.9%	4.79	5.58	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	159	670	113	76	17	100%	6.1	16.9%	11.4%	5.5%	2.5%	4.93	4.89	+0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	156	660	114	74	17	100%	6.0	17.3%	11.2%	6.1%	2.6%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	152	640	111	72	18	100%	6.1	17.4%	11.2%	6.2%	2.7%	4.90	4.93	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	145	611	106	69	18	100%	6.0	17.3%	11.3%	6.0%	2.9%	4.98	5.04	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	136	575	97	67	18	100%	5.9	16.9%	11.6%	5.3%	3.1%	5.13	5.22	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	70	296	50	34	8	100%	5.8	16.9%	11.4%	5.5%	2.6%	4.96	4.92	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	99	418	72	47	11	100%	6.2	17.3%	11.2%	6.1%	2.7%	4.91	4.91	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	114	481	84	54	13	100%	6.0	17.4%	11.2%	6.2%	2.8%	4.93	4.96	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	118	498	86	56	15	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.3%	6.0%	3.0%	5.01	5.07	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	117	494	84	57	16	100%	5.8	16.9%	11.6%	5.3%	3.2%	5.16	5.25	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	518	2189	376	248	63	100%	6.0	17.2%	11.3%	5.8%	2.9%	5.00	4.66	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	145	96	24	100%	6.0	17.2%	11.3%	5.8%	2.9%	5.00	4.66	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		99	86	459	1998	321	230	53	87%	4.6	16.0%	11.5%	4.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.67	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	38	200	871	140	101	23	87%	4.6	16.0%	11.5%	4.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.67	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Hurtado (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	15.0%	11.9%	2.5%	—	4.90	17.2%	5.9%	467	-0.18	—	—	—
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	88
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	88
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	86
Rafael Montero R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	16.6%	11.0%	3.0%	.325	3.81	23.3%	13.2%	177	-0.95	2.43	670	83
Tyler Woessner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP	4.10	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.29	17.6%	4.0%	76	+1.19	4.10	197	83
Anthony Ranaudo R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	15.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.304	5.10	15.5%	9.4%	141	+0.68	4.42	275	82
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	81
Scarlyn Reyes R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	25	SP	4.16	13.5%	10.4%	1.6%	.296	4.65	13.8%	3.2%	189	+0.49	4.16	317	81
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	80
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	80
Greg Ross R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	25	SP	4.16	11.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.308	4.62	11.3%	3.1%	220	+0.46	3.37	357	80
Scott Lyman R 2015 · 4.23 FIP	25	SP	4.23	11.3%	11.1%	1.2%	.293	3.74	8.7%	-2.1%	36	-0.49	3.74	182	80
Victor Mateo R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SP	4.32	10.3%	9.3%	1.7%	.273	5.45	10.2%	-2.0%	51	+1.13	4.32	199	80
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	80
Luis Ortiz R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SP	4.94	16.0%	11.1%	3.2%	.297	4.08	21.5%	13.0%	224	-0.86	3.06	585	79
Keith Couch R 2015 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	9.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.326	4.05	11.0%	3.6%	127	-0.60	4.05	252	79
Taylor Cole R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	15.0%	8.8%	2.8%	.319	3.66	20.8%	12.1%	168	-0.80	3.49	433	79
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	79
Stephen Landazuri R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	11.7%	11.3%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	127	79
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	151	16.8%	11.4%	1.05	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45