Joel Hurtado
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
+0.7
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2028
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.5%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%7.3%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2028
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL Angels | 5 | 4 | 18 | 74 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 8.0% | 3.50 | 7.77 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 22 | 10 | 78 | 342 | 90 | 31 | 2 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 0.8% | 5.42 | 3.26 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 26 | 26 | 139 | 629 | 134 | 82 | 8 | 16.4% | 15.0% | 1.7% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 19 | 19 | 92 | 381 | 59 | 28 | 6 | 12.5% | 8.2% | 1.9% | 2.75 | 4.14 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 3 | 3 | 9 | 47 | 9 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 75 | 44 | 11 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 111 | 475 | 84 | 50 | 11 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 4.99 | 4.26 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 86 | 45 | 12 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 4.57 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 89 | 46 | 12 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 90 | 46 | 12 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 88 | 45 | 12 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 84 | 44 | 12 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 80 | 43 | 12 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 76 | 42 | 12 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 71 | 41 | 12 | 18.0% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.90 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 66 | 39 | 12 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 61 | 38 | 11 | 17.2% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 5.13 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 62 | 34 | 11 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 62 | 336 | 1473 | 241 | 179 | 27 | 16.3% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 4.34 | 4.26 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 37 | 200 | 878 | 144 | 107 | 16 | 16.3% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 4.34 | 4.26 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Hurtado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.54 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 332 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 93 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 93 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 92 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 90 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 90 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 90 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 89 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 88 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 88 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 87 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 87 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.56 | 17.1% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .301 | 4.87 | 15.8% | -1.0% | 60 | +1.31 | 3.56 | 269 | 87 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 87 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 86 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .286 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 4.4% | 61 | +0.29 | 4.24 | 367 | 86 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 86 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 86 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.68 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .324 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.01 | 3.62 | 230 | 86 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 85 |
| Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $8M | $24M | +$17M | ||