Joel Hurtado
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.01
FIP5.01
K%15.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%3.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL Angels | 5 | 4 | 18 | 74 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 80% | 3.6 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 4.1% | 9.4% | 3.50 | 8.57 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL Angels | 5 | 4 | 18 | 74 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 80% | 3.6 | 28.4% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 4.1% | 3.50 | 4.43 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 22 | 10 | 78 | 342 | 90 | 31 | 2 | 45% | 3.5 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 1.0% | 5.42 | 3.34 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 22 | 10 | 78 | 342 | 90 | 31 | 2 | 45% | 3.5 | 26.3% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 0.6% | 5.42 | 2.32 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 26 | 26 | 139 | 629 | 134 | 82 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.4% | 15.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 4.61 | 4.66 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 26 | 26 | 139 | 629 | 134 | 82 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.3% | 13.0% | 8.3% | 1.3% | 4.61 | 3.69 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 92 | 381 | 59 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 4.8 | 12.5% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.75 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 92 | 381 | 59 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 2.75 | 3.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 17 | 17 | 86 | 352 | 68 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.36 | 5.36 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 276 | 41 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 5.01 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.99 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 151 | 628 | 109 | 60 | 20 | — | — | 17.4% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.07 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 15.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.99 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 26 | 26 | 159 | 670 | 113 | 73 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.9% | 10.8% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 4.87 | 4.82 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 26 | 26 | 156 | 660 | 114 | 71 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 25 | 25 | 152 | 640 | 111 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.4% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 24 | 24 | 145 | 611 | 106 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 97 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 5.17 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 89 | 62 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 5.25 | 5.37 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.9% | 10.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 4.85 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 72 | 45 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 84 | 51 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 86 | 54 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 84 | 55 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.14 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 79 | 55 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 105 | 632 | 2669 | 456 | 293 | 76 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.62 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 144 | 93 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 89 | 76 | 412 | 1778 | 287 | 205 | 45 | 85% | 4.6 | 16.1% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 4.04 | 4.59 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 37 | 200 | 863 | 139 | 100 | 22 | 85% | 4.6 | 16.1% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 4.04 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Hurtado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 15.0% | 11.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.84 | 17.2% | 6.5% | 467 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Pimentel R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.56 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .266 | 4.17 | 15.8% | 5.8% | 158 | -0.39 | 4.14 | 301 | 88 |
| Blayne Weller R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 16.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .326 | 5.67 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 103 | +1.52 | 4.15 | 254 | 87 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .325 | 3.79 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 177 | -0.87 | 2.38 | 663 | 84 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.57 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 241 | -0.16 | 4.08 | 536 | 83 |
| Chandler Champlain R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 3.5% | .298 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 7.1% | 202 | +0.01 | 4.26 | 583 | 83 |
| Anthony Ranaudo R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.25 | 15.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.17 | 15.5% | 9.4% | 141 | +0.92 | 4.25 | 275 | 82 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.10 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.1% | .277 | 6.80 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 34 | +1.70 | 4.19 | 285 | 82 |
| Greg Ross R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.49 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .308 | 4.65 | 11.3% | 3.1% | 220 | +0.16 | 3.34 | 357 | 82 |
| Kyle Luckham R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.10 | 13.2% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .303 | 4.01 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 79 | -0.09 | 4.01 | 482 | 82 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 13.5% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .296 | 4.69 | 13.8% | 3.2% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.39 | 317 | 81 |
| Victor Mateo R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.51 | 10.3% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .273 | 5.32 | 10.2% | -2.0% | 51 | +0.81 | 4.51 | 199 | 81 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.72 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.64 | 4.01 | 276 | 81 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 498 | 81 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 240 | 80 |
| Nick Brink R 2024 · 4.05 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.05 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 113 | 80 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.50 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.44 | 3.73 | 725 | 80 |
| Keith Couch R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.63 | 9.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .326 | 3.92 | 11.0% | 3.6% | 127 | -0.71 | 3.92 | 252 | 80 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 80 |
| Scott Lyman R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.28 | 11.3% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .293 | 3.74 | 8.7% | -2.1% | 36 | -0.54 | 3.74 | 182 | 80 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .319 | 3.62 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 168 | -0.69 | 3.44 | 433 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 148 | 16.8% | 11.0% | 1.09 | 4.96 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |