Keaton Anthony
OF Lehigh Valley IronPigs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+/APHI | 444 | .327/.416/.454 | 8 | 3 | 102 | — | .279/.348/.385 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AAPHI | 348 | .323/.379/.484 | 6 | 0 | 113 | — | .305/.347/.440 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/A+/APHI | 374 | .292/.385/.472 | 13 | 0 | 102 | — | .265/.334/.403 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBPHI | 16 | .268/.326/.402 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 27 | MLBPHI | 67 | .266/.325/.400 | 2 | 0 | 103 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 28 | MLBPHI | 106 | .263/.323/.396 | 2 | 0 | 101 | 0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 20 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 400 | 143 | 543 | 182 | 15 | 20 | 304 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 35 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 379 | 486 | 621 | 1.106 | 241 | 429 | 17 | 6 | 486 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 26 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 154 | 120 | 274 | 158 | 23 | 4 | 131 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 232 | 205 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 356 | 424 | 483 | 907 | 127 | 406 | 15 | 9 | 400 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 186 | 149 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 322 | 443 | 470 | 913 | 148 | 373 | 15 | 15 | 408 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 148 | 134 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 313 | 372 | 433 | 804 | 119 | 404 | 22 | 8 | 360 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 200 | 182 | 60 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 330 | 384 | 522 | 906 | 192 | 400 | 20 | 7 | 395 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 328 | 284 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 368 | 458 | 826 | 176 | 304 | 16 | 11 | 363 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 19 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 417 | 588 | 417 | 1.005 | 455 | 16 | 26 | 422 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 25 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 27 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 364 | 462 | 682 | 1.143 | 318 | 375 | 19 | 15 | 473 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 20 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 350 | 133 | 483 | 173 | 20 | 15 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 35 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 371 | 400 | 771 | 133 | 321 | 26 | 3 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 26 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 154 | 120 | 274 | 158 | 31 | 4 | 114 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 232 | 214 | 64 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 299 | 345 | 411 | 756 | 112 | 345 | 19 | 5 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 186 | 159 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 378 | 390 | 768 | 113 | 338 | 21 | 11 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 148 | 139 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 345 | 410 | 755 | 108 | 403 | 27 | 5 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 200 | 186 | 57 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 306 | 348 | 462 | 811 | 156 | 387 | 24 | 5 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 328 | 294 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 316 | 381 | 697 | 133 | 278 | 19 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 19 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 429 | 529 | 429 | 958 | 406 | 21 | 16 | 416 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 27 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 348 | 423 | 652 | 1.075 | 304 | 321 | 26 | 11 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 55 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 364 | 311 | 675 | 89 | 290 | 24 | 7 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 55 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 302 | 455 | 465 | 920 | 163 | 344 | 16 | 11 | 420 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 444 | 399 | 110 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 90 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 343 | 381 | 724 | 105 | 337 | 20 | 7 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 444 | 379 | 124 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 68 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 327 | 416 | 454 | 870 | 127 | 378 | 15 | 11 | 388 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 325 | 98 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 88 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 344 | 437 | 781 | 135 | 397 | 25 | 5 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 348 | 316 | 102 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 73 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 323 | 379 | 484 | 863 | 161 | 402 | 21 | 7 | 380 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 374 | 332 | 87 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 331 | 401 | 731 | 139 | 298 | 19 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 374 | 318 | 93 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 45 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 292 | 385 | 472 | 857 | 179 | 315 | 16 | 12 | 374 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 55 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 364 | 311 | 675 | 89 | 267 | 24 | 7 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 444 | 400 | 110 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 90 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 275 | 343 | 380 | 723 | 105 | 331 | 20 | 7 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 324 | 98 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 88 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 344 | 438 | 782 | 136 | 394 | 25 | 5 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 374 | 337 | 87 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 331 | 395 | 725 | 136 | 288 | 19 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 444 | 400 | 110 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 90 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 275 | 343 | 380 | 723 | 105 | 331 | 20 | 7 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 324 | 98 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 88 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 344 | 438 | 782 | 136 | 394 | 25 | 5 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 374 | 337 | 87 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 331 | 395 | 725 | 136 | 288 | 19 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | PHI | 10% | 380 | 347 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 82 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 266 | 325 | 397 | 722 | 130 | 325 | 22 | 7 | 322 | 104 | +2 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | PHI | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 326 | 402 | 728 | 134 | 325 | 19 | 6 | 324 | 104 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 30% | 225 | 205 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 324 | 395 | 719 | 130 | 323 | 22 | 7 | 320 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 42% | 253 | 231 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 322 | 391 | 713 | 129 | 321 | 22 | 7 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | PHI | 47% | 263 | 240 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 318 | 384 | 701 | 127 | 316 | 22 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | PHI | 51% | 269 | 245 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 314 | 377 | 691 | 124 | 313 | 23 | 7 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 30% | 67 | 61 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 325 | 400 | 725 | 134 | 323 | 22 | 7 | 323 | 103 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 42% | 106 | 96 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 323 | 396 | 719 | 133 | 321 | 22 | 8 | 320 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | PHI | 47% | 124 | 113 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 319 | 389 | 708 | 130 | 316 | 23 | 7 | 315 | 98 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | PHI | 51% | 136 | 124 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 315 | 382 | 697 | 127 | 313 | 23 | 7 | 311 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 433 | 394 | 101 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 97 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 319 | 383 | 702 | 127 | 314 | 22 | 7 | 316 | 102 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +9 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 152 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 48 | 146 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 319 | 384 | 703 | 127 | 315 | 22 | 7 | 316 | 102 | -1 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2386 | 2164 | 581 | 115 | 9 | 46 | 169 | 521 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 268 | 330 | 394 | 724 | 125 | 331 | 22 | 7 | 319 | 102 | -0 | +0 | -5 | -7 | +25 | 1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 158 | 31 | 2 | 13 | 46 | 142 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 268 | 329 | 393 | 722 | 125 | 330 | 22 | 7 | 319 | 102 | -0 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +14 | 0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 328 PAwOBA .359 → .307 (−52)K% 15.5% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 21.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 5.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.033 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .359 → .307; ISO .176 → .139; BABIP .304 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AClearwater Threshers · 27 PAwOBA .477 → .390 (−88)K% 18.5% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 9.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 26.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 9.13% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .477 → .390; ISO .318 → .256; BABIP .375 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 19 PAwOBA .462 → .416 (−46)K% 15.8% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 20.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 15.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 55.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 47.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .462 → .416; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .455 → .406. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 200 PAwOBA .388 → .349 (−39)K% 20.0% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.94% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 24.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.79% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 13.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.15% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .388 → .349; ISO .192 → .161; BABIP .400 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 148 PAwOBA .350 → .319 (−31)K% 22.3% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.30% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.70% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 30.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.90% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 8.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.98% | ÷0.947 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .350 → .319; ISO .119 → .100; BABIP .404 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 232 PAwOBA .392 → .328 (−64)K% 14.7% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.66% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 18.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.19% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.035 | ×0.870 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 28.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.17% | ÷0.946 | ×0.850 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷0.926 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.22% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 89, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .392 → .328; ISO .127 → .114; BABIP .406 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AClearwater Threshers · 186 PAwOBA .400 → .336 (−65)K% 15.1% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.05% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.05% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 10.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.10% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×0.990 | 25.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.26% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×0.990 | 7.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×1.046 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.31% | ÷1.115 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .400 → .336; ISO .148 → .121; BABIP .373 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 26 PAwOBA .128 → .114 (−14)K% 23.1% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.85% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.997 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 15.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .128 → .114; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .158 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).