Trevor Kuncl — OGILVIE

Trevor Kuncl P Louisville Bats

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%22.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL5045

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	47	0	50	199	51	17	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	1.8%	2.34	3.51	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	47	0	50	199	51	17	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	1.8%	2.34	3.51	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	47	0	50	199	51	17	3	0%	1.1	25.6%	8.5%	17.1%	1.5%	2.34	2.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	40	0	38	178	42	29	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.7%	4.9%	1.9%	5.40	4.32	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	40	0	38	178	42	29	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.7%	4.9%	1.9%	5.40	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	CIN	40	0	38	178	42	29	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	16.3%	7.3%	1.7%	5.40	4.10	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	27	6	3	1	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.33	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	45	205	48	32	4	—	—	23.4%	15.4%	8.0%	1.8%	5.25	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	65	0	68	287	64	28	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.7%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.41	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	62	0	65	274	60	27	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	28	0	29	122	27	12	4	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.7%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.41	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	36	0	38	160	35	16	5	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	0	68	286	63	28	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.10	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	83	24	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		87	0	88	377	76	45	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	1.8%	3.67	3.89	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	0	200	854	172	101	15	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	1.8%	3.67	3.89	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Kuncl (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	22.2%	9.6%	2.7%	—	4.47	22.1%	12.3%	133	+0.14	—	—	—
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	90
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	89
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	89
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	88
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	87
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	87
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	87
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.39	547	86
Justin De Fratus R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	27	SU	3.84	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.61	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.77	3.84	500	86
Steve Geltz R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	27	SU	3.95	22.7%	8.6%	3.1%	.209	4.90	22.2%	12.0%	89	+0.95	3.57	157	86
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	85
Bryan Shaw R 2015 · 3.90 FIP	27	SU	3.90	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.54	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.36	2.78	596	84
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	84
Danny Farquhar R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	22.4%	6.8%	3.2%	.324	3.84	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.01	3.62	224	84
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	84
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	84
Chaz Roe R 2015 · 3.14 FIP	28	SU	3.14	20.7%	8.4%	1.3%	.300	2.73	28.4%	20.7%	140	-0.41	1.72	257	84
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	84
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	22.1%	9.7%	1.12	4.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47