Eduardo Tovar prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Eduardo Tovar P ACL Mariners

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%23.0%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	13	0	18	74	23	5	1	0%	1.4	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	1.9%	2.50	3.41	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	13	0	18	74	23	5	1	0%	1.4	31.1%	6.8%	24.3%	1.4%	2.50	2.10	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	13	0	13	66	13	14	0	0%	1.0	13.4%	26.5%	-13.1%	0.0%	6.92	5.33	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	13	0	13	66	13	14	0	0%	1.0	13.4%	26.5%	-13.1%	0.0%	6.92	5.33	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	13	0	13	66	13	14	0	0%	1.0	19.7%	21.2%	-1.5%	0.0%	6.92	4.33	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	0	7	49	11	13	0	0%	0.7	22.4%	26.5%	-4.1%	0.0%	11.05	4.56	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	0	7	49	11	13	0	0%	0.7	22.4%	26.5%	-4.1%	0.0%	11.05	4.56	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	10	0	7	49	11	13	0	0%	0.7	22.4%	26.5%	-4.1%	0.0%	11.05	5.42	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	12.4%	10.5%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	19	0	20	84	20	9	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.51	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.13	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	102	20	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		36	0	38	189	35	37	1	0%	1.1	18.8%	19.4%	-0.7%	0.7%	5.63	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		188	0	200	986	185	192	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	19.4%	-0.7%	0.7%	5.63	4.38	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eduardo Tovar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	23.0%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.51	23.8%	12.6%	20	-0.25	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	91
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.43	249	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	88
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	87
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Cody Allen R 2012 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	21.4%	11.9%	1.6%	.329	2.40	32.1%	24.3%	209	-1.27	1.58	464	85
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	85
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	85
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	85
David Riske R 2001 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.6%	12.7%	2.5%	.239	3.89	26.0%	16.4%	203	-0.14	3.16	497	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	84