Daniel Pena — OGILVIE

Daniel PenaC Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs A BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.4 · 2031

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .291 / .333

PA198

HR4

K%24

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

25→25

SPD

40→40

EYE

50↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.4peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.4	$22M	+$21M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.4	$23M	+$22M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.3	$23M	+$22M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.1	$21M	+$17M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.8	$19M	+$13M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.5	$16M	+$9M
Totals		$20M		$124M	+$104M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Twins	159	141	35	5	0	1	7	33	10	4	3	.248	.329	.305	.634	.057	.315	21	4	.275	69	-6	-0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2023	18	ROK	FCL Twins	117	102	23	3	0	5	10	19	2	0	0	.225	.307	.402	.709	.176	.222	16	9	.295	84	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2024	19	A	2 teams	175	155	24	4	0	3	16	55	3	0	0	.155	.247	.239	.486	.084	.214	31	9	.228	33	-13	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.5
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	212	188	33	6	0	2	16	40	5	0	0	.176	.258	.239	.498	.064	.208	19	8	.226	31	-16	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	MIN	198	178	41	8	1	4	15	47	3	3	1	.230	.301	.354	.655	.124	.278	24	8	.285	76	-5	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	MIN	274	246	56	11	1	6	22	63	4	4	1	.228	.301	.354	.655	.126	.280	23	8	.297	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.9
2028	23	MLB 28%	MIN	369	330	77	15	2	9	31	82	5	5	1	.233	.309	.373	.681	.139	.281	22	8	.305	91	-4	+1	+0	+7	+10	1.4
2029	24	MLB 45%	MIN	434	387	91	17	2	11	38	96	6	6	1	.235	.313	.375	.688	.140	.282	22	9	.310	95	-2	+1	+0	+8	+12	1.9
2030	25	MLB 60%	MIN	470	418	99	19	2	12	42	103	7	7	1	.237	.317	.378	.695	.141	.283	22	9	.313	98	-1	+1	+0	+8	+13	2.2
2031	26	MLB 77%	MIN	490	435	102	19	2	13	45	107	7	7	1	.234	.316	.377	.693	.143	.283	22	9	.315	99	-0	+1	+0	+9	+14	2.4
2032	27	MLB 92%	MIN	498	442	104	20	2	13	46	109	7	7	1	.235	.317	.378	.695	.143	.283	22	9	.315	99	-0	+1	+0	+9	+14	2.4
2033	28	MLB	MIN	498	441	104	20	2	13	47	110	7	6	1	.236	.319	.379	.698	.143	.283	22	9	.314	98	-1	+1	-1	+9	+14	2.3
2034	29	MLB	MIN	492	436	102	19	2	13	46	110	7	6	0	.234	.317	.376	.693	.142	.282	22	9	.312	97	-2	+1	-1	+9	+14	2.1
2035	30	MLB	MIN	483	427	98	18	2	12	46	110	7	5	0	.230	.315	.365	.680	.136	.281	23	10	.309	94	-3	+1	-2	+9	+14	1.8
2036	31	MLB	MIN	456	404	92	17	2	11	43	106	6	4	0	.228	.311	.361	.673	.134	.279	23	9	.305	91	-4	+1	-3	+8	+13	1.5
2037	32	MLB	MIN	426	377	85	16	2	10	40	101	6	3	0	.225	.310	.358	.668	.133	.278	24	9	.300	88	-6	+1	-4	+8	+12	1.1
2038	33	MLB	MIN	386	342	76	14	2	9	36	94	5	3	0	.222	.305	.354	.659	.132	.276	24	9	.295	84	-7	+1	-4	+7	+11	0.7
2039	34	MLB	MIN	333	295	64	12	1	7	31	84	4	2	0	.217	.300	.336	.636	.119	.275	25	9	.288	79	-8	+0	-5	+6	+9	0.3
2040	35	MLB	MIN	276	246	51	9	1	5	25	72	3	2	0	.207	.288	.313	.601	.106	.272	26	9	.281	73	-8	+0	-6	+5	+8	-0.1
2041	36	MLB	MIN	219	194	40	7	1	4	20	60	3	2	0	.206	.290	.314	.605	.108	.269	27	9	.272	66	-8	+0	-6	+4	+6	-0.4
2042	37	MLB	MIN	161	144	29	5	1	3	14	46	2	1	0	.201	.281	.312	.594	.111	.265	29	9	.262	59	-7	+0	-7	+3	+5	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7126	6328	1426	264	28	166	636	1647	109	77	11	.225	.307	.355	.662	.129	.277	23	9	.298	86	-111	+11	-38	+127	+202	19.4
/ 162G	—			650	577	130	24	3	15	58	150	10	7	1	.225	.307	.355	.662	.130	.277	23	9	.298	86	-10	+1	-4	+12	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Twins	159	135	41	7	1	13	22	10	4	3	.304	.405	.378	.783	.074	.354	14	8	.361	134	+6	-0	—	—	+5	1.0
2023	18	ROK	FCL Twins	117	97	27	4	5	15	14	2	0	0	.278	.386	.474	.860	.196	.272	12	13	.374	144	+6	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2024	19	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	143	123	24	3	3	16	32	3	0	0	.195	.303	.293	.595	.098	.236	22	11	.278	71	-5	+0	—	—	+4	-0.1
2024	19	ROK	FCL Twins	32	26	8	2	1	6	6	0	0	0	.308	.438	.500	.938	.192	.368	19	19	.417	178	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	212	181	36	6	2	23	28	5	0	0	.199	.306	.265	.571	.066	.221	13	11	.269	64	-9	+0	—	—	+6	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daniel Pena (OGILVIE)	21	35	25	40	40	.220/.291/.333	.113	.278	4	3	24%	8%	76	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Blake Ochoa 2007 · A	21	45	40→45	46→40	44	.215/.280/.308	.092	.280	6	5	24%	6%	64	-0.8	.217/.270/.311	.094	.277	7	4	23%	6%	60	-1.0	.236/.301/.377	.140	.278	16	2	21%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	48	.209/.289/.317	.108	.281	9	6	28%	9%	70	-0.3	.221/.304/.311	.090	.312	8	6	29%	9%	75	-0.0	.236/.329/.308	.072	.330	7	6	28%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Sherman Lacrus 2016 · A	22	47	40→30	45→50	49	.225/.297/.314	.089	.263	7	7	17%	7%	73	-0.1	.204/.258/.288	.084	.268	6	8	25%	6%	49	-1.8	.183/.231/.254	.071	.236	5	9	24%	4%	26	-1.1
✕Andy Paz 2014 · A	21	46	37→40	42→45	48	.215/.279/.290	.075	.276	4	5	23%	8%	58	-1.2	.200/.260/.272	.072	.277	5	5	27%	7%	45	-2.1	.210/.261/.258	.048	.277	3	6	24%	6%	38	-0.7
✕Luis Alvarez 2011 · A	21	48	43→45	47→45	46	.231/.301/.344	.113	.287	10	6	22%	7%	82	+0.5	.218/.273/.326	.108	.274	10	5	23%	5%	66	-0.6	.212/.264/.322	.111	.252	13	1	21%	4%	57	-0.3
✕Jairo Marquez 2009 · A	21	49	40	43→45	50	.231/.290/.321	.090	.251	8	5	12%	6%	71	-0.3	.221/.267/.312	.091	.255	7	6	16%	5%	59	-1.1	.217/.251/.299	.082	.252	4	8	15%	4%	43	-0.4
✕Orlando Gonzalez 2007 · A	21	48	41→40	41→45	43	.233/.290/.329	.096	.275	8	7	18%	5%	73	-0.1	.238/.295/.327	.089	.263	8	5	13%	5%	75	-0.0	.252/.309/.328	.076	.263	8	3	8%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	40	38→40	47→55	47	.192/.263/.275	.082	.250	5	9	24%	8%	48	-1.9	.212/.292/.300	.088	.255	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	.209/.299/.290	.080	.241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Fernando Pujadas 2013 · A	21	43	41→40	45→30	48	.210/.285/.307	.097	.263	8	3	23%	8%	66	-0.6	.218/.286/.305	.087	.286	6	4	24%	7%	66	-0.6	.232/.290/.310	.078	.294	4	0	21%	6%	65	-0.1
✕Orlando Mercado 2006 · A	21	45	43→45	43→40	52	.222/.290/.330	.108	.254	11	5	18%	8%	74	-0.1	.215/.296/.334	.119	.243	13	3	17%	9%	78	+0.2	.226/.319/.308	.082	.262	7	1	15%	11%	79	+0.1
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	43	41→50	42→45	48	.206/.286/.310	.104	.297	8	6	31%	10%	67	-0.5	.180/.241/.263	.083	.269	8	5	34%	7%	36	-2.7	.183/.230/.260	.077	.238	8	4	26%	5%	28	-1.0
✕Sam McMillan 2019 · A	20	47	41→30	47→45	49	.227/.314/.329	.102	.280	8	6	21%	8%	85	+0.7	.215/.317/.288	.073	.287	4	7	24%	10%	76	+0.1	.207/.331/.267	.060	.268	4	7	21%	12%	75	-0.0
✕Antonio Negron 2007 · A	21	40	41→45	42→50	50	.196/.286/.295	.099	.247	9	10	24%	9%	64	-0.8	.209/.289/.316	.107	.260	10	10	22%	9%	70	-0.3	.206/.289/.314	.108	.245	12	12	21%	9%	69	-0.2
✕Geoandry Montilla 2017 · A	21	44	41→45	45→50	45	.212/.277/.309	.097	.287	8	8	28%	8%	63	-0.9	.197/.264/.297	.100	.310	8	8	36%	7%	55	-1.4	.131/.203/.233	.101	.238	8	7	45%	7%	11	-1.2
✕Roy Morales 2016 · A	21	44	36→30	44→45	47	.204/.268/.273	.070	.231	4	5	14%	5%	50	-1.7	.229/.290/.289	.060	.270	3	7	15%	6%	63	-0.9	.267/.331/.325	.058	.319	4	8	16%	7%	86	+0.3
●Daniel Robertson 2015 · A	21	50→54	44→45	39→40	48	.245/.311/.362	.117	.297	11	3	21%	7%	91	+1.1	.238/.308/.344	.106	.304	8	3	23%	7%	85	+0.7	.234/.338/.350	.116	.305	12	4	25%	11%	96	+0.8
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	48→45	43→45	48→70	45	.232/.292/.346	.114	.280	10	9	21%	6%	79	+0.3	.220/.293/.329	.109	.282	9	25	24%	7%	76	+0.0	.229/.321/.344	.115	.305	10	63	26%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	44→30	44	.194/.265/.281	.087	.269	7	5	29%	7%	51	-1.7	.211/.260/.303	.092	.273	7	4	24%	5%	53	-1.5	.224/.268/.311	.087	.267	6	1	18%	3%	59	-0.4
✕Anderson Hidalgo 2010 · A	21	47	41→45	41→50	48	.229/.290/.331	.102	.287	8	6	23%	8%	74	-0.1	.231/.282/.330	.099	.298	7	3	23%	6%	69	-0.4	.224/.274/.317	.093	.288	6	1	23%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	40	43→45	43→50	47	.193/.290/.298	.105	.281	11	10	32%	10%	67	-0.5	.182/.264/.285	.103	.284	10	6	37%	8%	52	-1.6	.153/.236/.254	.101	.237	11	2	38%	9%	32	-0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)