Daniel Pena
C FCL Twins| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKMIN | 175 | .215/.328/.329 | 4 | 0 | 41 | — | .155/.247/.233 |
| 2025 | 20 | AMIN | 212 | .199/.306/.265 | 2 | 0 | 37 | — | .175/.254/.233 |
| 2026 | 21 | ROKMIN | 74 | .158/.351/.211 | 1 | 2 | 18 | — | .113/.257/.161 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBMIN | 184 | .186/.259/.267 | 2 | 3 | 50 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBMIN | 38 | .192/.265/.284 | 1 | 1 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBMIN | 84 | .197/.270/.296 | 1 | 1 | 61 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 159 | 135 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 304 | 405 | 378 | 783 | 74 | 354 | 14 | 8 | 361 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 117 | 97 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 386 | 474 | 860 | 196 | 272 | 12 | 13 | 374 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 143 | 123 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 303 | 293 | 595 | 98 | 236 | 22 | 11 | 278 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 32 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 438 | 500 | 938 | 192 | 368 | 19 | 19 | 417 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 212 | 181 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 306 | 265 | 571 | 66 | 221 | 13 | 11 | 269 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 74 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 351 | 211 | 562 | 53 | 200 | 22 | 18 | 288 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 159 | 140 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 214 | 304 | 250 | 554 | 36 | 254 | 17 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 117 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 307 | 402 | 709 | 176 | 213 | 17 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 143 | 127 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 232 | 205 | 437 | 63 | 201 | 31 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 32 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 312 | 357 | 670 | 143 | 287 | 28 | 12 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 212 | 189 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 254 | 233 | 486 | 58 | 200 | 18 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 74 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 113 | 257 | 161 | 418 | 48 | 155 | 31 | 11 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 159 | 140 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 214 | 304 | 250 | 554 | 36 | 263 | 17 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 159 | 135 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 304 | 405 | 378 | 783 | 74 | 354 | 14 | 8 | 361 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 117 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 307 | 402 | 709 | 176 | 225 | 17 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 117 | 97 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 386 | 474 | 860 | 196 | 272 | 12 | 13 | 374 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 175 | 156 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 247 | 244 | 491 | 83 | 218 | 30 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 175 | 149 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 328 | 329 | 656 | 114 | 259 | 22 | 13 | 303 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 212 | 189 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 254 | 233 | 486 | 58 | 204 | 18 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 212 | 181 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 306 | 265 | 571 | 66 | 221 | 13 | 11 | 269 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 74 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 113 | 257 | 161 | 418 | 48 | 158 | 31 | 11 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 74 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 351 | 211 | 562 | 53 | 200 | 22 | 18 | 288 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 159 | 140 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 214 | 304 | 250 | 554 | 36 | 254 | 17 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 117 | 104 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 307 | 394 | 701 | 173 | 213 | 17 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 175 | 155 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 247 | 245 | 492 | 84 | 217 | 30 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 212 | 190 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 254 | 232 | 485 | 58 | 200 | 18 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 74 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 113 | 257 | 161 | 418 | 48 | 155 | 31 | 11 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 175 | 155 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 247 | 245 | 492 | 84 | 217 | 30 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 212 | 190 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 254 | 232 | 485 | 58 | 200 | 18 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 74 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 113 | 257 | 161 | 418 | 48 | 155 | 31 | 11 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 184 | 165 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 259 | 267 | 526 | 81 | 235 | 23 | 8 | 242 | 50 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIN | 34% | 110 | 99 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 265 | 283 | 548 | 91 | 239 | 23 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 46% | 182 | 163 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 270 | 296 | 566 | 99 | 243 | 23 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 52% | 247 | 223 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 56 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 273 | 305 | 578 | 105 | 245 | 23 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 302 | 271 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 276 | 311 | 587 | 109 | 247 | 23 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 329 | 296 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 75 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 277 | 313 | 590 | 110 | 249 | 23 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 342 | 308 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 79 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 275 | 308 | 583 | 107 | 248 | 23 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 53% | 341 | 307 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 79 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 199 | 272 | 302 | 574 | 103 | 246 | 23 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIN | 34% | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 265 | 284 | 549 | 92 | 239 | 24 | 8 | 252 | 56 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 46% | 84 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 270 | 296 | 566 | 100 | 243 | 23 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 52% | 128 | 115 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 305 | 579 | 105 | 245 | 23 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 164 | 148 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 276 | 311 | 587 | 109 | 247 | 23 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 178 | 160 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 277 | 314 | 591 | 110 | 249 | 23 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 186 | 167 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 275 | 309 | 584 | 107 | 248 | 23 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 53% | 181 | 163 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 272 | 303 | 575 | 103 | 246 | 23 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 959 | 864 | 173 | 32 | 5 | 16 | 75 | 220 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 200 | 273 | 304 | 578 | 104 | 248 | 23 | 8 | 264 | 60 | -40 | +1 | -1 | +17 | +21 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 586 | 117 | 22 | 3 | 11 | 51 | 149 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 273 | 304 | 577 | 104 | 247 | 23 | 8 | 264 | 60 | -27 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2643 | 2364 | 460 | 81 | 6 | 45 | 205 | 597 | 49 | 29 | 10 | 195 | 273 | 291 | 564 | 96 | 238 | 23 | 8 | 256 | 60 | -81 | +2 | -2 | +34 | +41 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 113 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 50 | 147 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 194 | 272 | 289 | 561 | 95 | 238 | 23 | 8 | 256 | 60 | -28 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Twins · 74 PAwOBA .282 → .195 (−88)K% 21.6% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 10.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.41% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 15.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 1.87% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .282 → .195; ISO .053 → .040; BABIP .200 → .155. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 212 PAwOBA .266 → .223 (−43)K% 13.2% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.21% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.85% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.36% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.30% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.030 | 16.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.030 | 3.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.31% | ÷0.898 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.20% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .266 → .223; ISO .066 → .058; BABIP .221 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 143 PAwOBA .273 → .214 (−59)K% 22.4% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.38% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.19% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.78% | ÷1.096 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.045 | 17.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.045 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .273 → .214; ISO .098 → .078; BABIP .236 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Twins · 32 PAwOBA .407 → .295 (−112)K% 18.8% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.974 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.046 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 11.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 19.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 7.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 4.42% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .407 → .295; ISO .192 → .156; BABIP .368 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Twins · 117 PAwOBA .374 → .297 (−77)K% 12.0% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.97% | ÷1.025 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷0.963 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 8.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | ×0.979 | ×1.022 | 17.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | ×0.979 | ×1.022 | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.720 | ×0.979 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.02% | ÷0.913 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 5.26% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .374 → .297; ISO .196 → .170; BABIP .272 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Twins · 159 PAwOBA .354 → .251 (−103)K% 13.8% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.84% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.18% | ÷1.116 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.29% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 4.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.20% | ÷0.974 | ×0.680 | ×1.029 | ×1.022 | 21.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | ×1.029 | ×1.022 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.600 | ×1.029 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.032 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.41% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 95, 3B 103, K 96, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .354 → .251; ISO .074 → .045; BABIP .354 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).