Luke Fernandez — OGILVIE

Luke Fernandez P Hill City Howlers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%21.2%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	11	51	11	7	0	0%	1.6	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	0.0%	6.55	3.80	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	11	51	11	7	0	0%	1.6	16.0%	16.2%	-0.2%	0.0%	6.55	3.80	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	11	51	11	7	0	0%	1.6	21.6%	13.7%	7.8%	0.0%	6.55	3.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	37	0	70	328	81	61	8	0%	1.9	18.1%	21.5%	-3.4%	3.3%	4.50	6.08	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	37	0	70	328	81	61	8	0%	1.9	18.1%	21.5%	-3.4%	3.3%	4.50	6.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CLE	36	0	68	319	78	58	8	0%	1.9	24.5%	18.2%	6.3%	2.5%	4.63	4.71	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CLE	1	0	2	9	3	3	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	68	0	71	301	67	34	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.4%	10.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.64	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	70	0	73	308	70	33	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.46	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	70	0	74	312	72	31	9	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	2.9%	4.43	4.35	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	70	0	74	312	73	31	9	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.33	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	69	0	73	307	72	31	9	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	67	0	71	298	69	30	9	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.2%	13.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.45	+0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	64	0	67	285	66	30	9	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.4%	12.7%	3.2%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	60	0	63	268	61	29	9	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.76	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	33	0	35	148	33	17	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.4%	10.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.64	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	49	0	51	215	49	23	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.46	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	57	0	60	253	59	25	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	2.9%	4.43	4.35	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	62	0	65	274	64	27	8	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.33	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	63	0	66	279	65	28	8	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	62	0	65	274	64	28	8	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.2%	13.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.45	+0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	60	0	63	266	61	28	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.4%	12.7%	3.2%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	56	0	59	249	57	27	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		441	0	463	1956	451	202	58	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.49	4.10	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	87	25	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.49	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		44	0	81	379	67	79	11	0%	1.8	17.8%	20.7%	-2.9%	2.8%	4.78	5.77	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	0	200	936	167	194	26	0%	1.8	17.8%	20.7%	-2.9%	2.8%	4.78	5.77	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.2%	12.8%	2.9%	—	4.48	22.7%	12.1%	218	-0.43	—	—	—
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	91
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	87
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	87
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	85
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	85
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	84
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	84
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	84
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	84
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	84
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	83
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	83
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	474	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	64	23.0%	10.4%	1.15	4.51
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93