Branden Noriega — OGILVIE

Branden Noriega P ACL Cubs

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%23.0%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	43	208	66	54	2	5%	1.9	22.2%	31.6%	-9.5%	1.3%	6.75	5.96	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	43	208	66	54	2	5%	1.9	31.7%	26.0%	5.8%	1.0%	6.75	4.41	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	24	128	30	29	2	0%	1.3	17.0%	26.4%	-9.4%	2.9%	11.03	6.59	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	24	128	30	29	2	0%	1.3	17.0%	26.4%	-9.4%	2.9%	11.03	6.59	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	24	128	30	29	2	0%	1.3	23.4%	22.7%	0.8%	1.6%	11.03	5.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	11	0	12	51	12	7	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	19	0	20	84	19	11	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	3.0%	4.89	4.91	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	3.0%	4.89	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	3.0%	4.89	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	110	28	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	3.0%	4.89	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		40	1	66	336	68	100	6	2%	1.7	20.2%	29.7%	-9.5%	1.9%	8.28	6.20	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	3	200	1013	205	301	19	2%	1.7	20.2%	29.7%	-9.5%	1.9%	8.28	6.20	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Branden Noriega (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	23.0%	13.8%	3.0%	—	4.91	23.0%	9.6%	20	-0.02	—	—	—
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	89
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	86
Kevin Chapman L 2014 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.297	3.30	22.3%	12.4%	137	-1.33	3.01	194	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	82
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	80
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	80
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	80
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	80
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.36	19.3%	8.8%	53	+0.09	3.45	165	80
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	80
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	79
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	79
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	79
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	79
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	79
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	78
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	78
Andy Fisher L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.5%	15.4%	1.8%	.333	4.25	17.2%	6.3%	52	+0.05	3.13	167	77
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	77
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	77