Aiden Butler

P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 193 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	16	13	64	5.74	4.25	18.4%	5.7%	—	K 11.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 6.66
2026	22	ASEA	22	21	89	8.02	4.45	19.1%	6.8%	—	K 14.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.45
2027PROJ	23	MLBSEA	12	12	62	5.59	5.59	11.2%	8.9%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSEA	6	6	35	5.30	5.23	14.0%	8.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSEA	9	9	55	5.12	5.05	15.6%	8.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control55Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsGreg Reynolds (age 23) · Clayton Mortensen (age 24) · Bradley Brehmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%11.2%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%2.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	64	283	52	16	10	81%	4.0	11.5%	6.9%	4.6%	6.7%	5.74	6.66	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	64	283	52	16	10	81%	4.0	11.5%	6.9%	4.6%	6.7%	5.74	6.66	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	64	283	52	16	10	81%	4.0	18.4%	5.7%	12.7%	3.5%	5.74	4.25	—
2026	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	89	424	81	29	15	95%	4.0	14.1%	8.1%	6.1%	4.6%	8.02	5.45	—
2026	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	89	424	81	29	15	95%	4.0	14.1%	8.1%	6.1%	4.6%	8.02	5.45	—
2026	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	89	424	81	29	15	95%	4.0	19.1%	6.8%	12.3%	3.5%	8.02	4.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SEA	12	12	62	262	29	23	9	100%	5.2	11.2%	8.9%	2.3%	3.5%	5.59	5.59	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	82	345	48	30	12	100%	5.5	14.0%	8.7%	5.2%	3.4%	5.35	5.28	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	83	350	54	30	12	100%	5.9	15.6%	8.5%	7.0%	3.4%	5.17	5.10	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	83	350	58	30	12	100%	5.9	16.5%	8.4%	8.0%	3.4%	5.05	5.00	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	82	345	57	29	12	100%	5.8	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	3.4%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	79	334	62	26	12	100%	6.1	18.5%	7.8%	10.6%	3.5%	4.91	4.83	+0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	76	319	58	26	12	100%	5.8	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.6%	4.94	4.96	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	71	300	54	25	12	100%	5.9	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.8%	5.06	5.14	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	35	148	21	13	5	100%	5.8	14.0%	8.7%	5.2%	3.3%	5.30	5.23	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	55	232	36	20	8	100%	6.1	15.6%	8.5%	7.0%	3.3%	5.12	5.05	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	66	279	46	24	9	100%	6.0	16.5%	8.4%	8.0%	3.3%	5.00	4.95	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	70	296	49	25	10	100%	5.8	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	3.3%	4.97	4.97	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	70	296	55	23	10	100%	5.8	18.5%	7.8%	10.6%	3.4%	4.86	4.78	+0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	69	291	53	24	10	100%	5.8	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.6%	4.89	4.91	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	66	279	50	23	10	100%	6.0	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.7%	5.01	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	430	1814	308	151	62	100%	6.0	17.0%	8.3%	8.7%	3.4%	5.00	4.60	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	143	70	29	100%	5.9	17.0%	8.3%	8.7%	3.4%	5.00	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		38	34	153	707	93	54	38	89%	4.0	13.1%	7.6%	5.5%	5.4%	7.06	5.94	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	44	200	924	121	70	50	89%	4.0	13.1%	7.6%	5.5%	5.4%	7.06	5.94	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aiden Butler (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	11.2%	8.9%	3.5%	—	5.13	15.3%	6.8%	247	-0.46	—	—	—
Greg Reynolds R 2008 · 6.07 FIP	23	SP	6.07	7.5%	7.8%	4.8%	.294	4.78	12.5%	6.9%	32	-1.29	4.66	148	87
Clayton Mortensen R 2009 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.7%	8.7%	4.0%	.308	4.84	17.1%	7.7%	100	-0.84	4.31	383	85
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	85
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	84
Jose Campos R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP	4.89	12.0%	5.8%	3.8%	.320	3.67	16.0%	6.8%	170	-1.22	3.28	241	84
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	83
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	82
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	81
Brad Lincoln R 2010 · 5.24 FIP	25	SP-	5.24	10.4%	6.2%	4.0%	.298	4.10	19.9%	12.2%	167	-1.14	3.78	280	81
Matt Wise R 2000 · 5.35 FIP	24	SP-	5.35	12.3%	7.4%	4.3%	.266	4.98	23.7%	15.6%	49	-0.37	3.33	302	81
Anthony Swarzak R 2009 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP	5.43	12.7%	7.5%	4.5%	.317	4.19	13.7%	8.1%	199	-1.24	2.35	700	81
Sam Tewes R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP	4.71	11.2%	7.7%	2.9%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	105	81
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	81
Mike Thompson R 2006 · 4.95 FIP	25	SP	4.95	8.6%	6.4%	3.2%	.272	4.85	6.7%	0.0%	16	-0.10	4.85	108	80
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	80
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	80
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	80
Conor Fisk R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP-	4.77	11.2%	6.7%	3.2%	.282	4.20	15.2%	8.4%	352	-0.57	3.38	523	80
Billy Buckner R 2007 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP-	5.43	11.9%	11.2%	3.5%	.305	4.73	18.3%	10.4%	104	-0.70	3.73	252	79
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	77	16.1%	8.4%	1.35	5.13
Scott Bailes ('86-'98, -3 WAR*)	3.4	76	15.4%*	8.2%*	1.35*	5.02*
Gary Glover ('08)	2.6	86	14.3%	8.1%	1.29	5.03
Bob Priddy ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.7	77	16.3%*	9.0%*	1.43*	4.80*
Carlos Reyes ('03)	2.8	70	14.8%	9.0%	1.39	4.66
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*