Mason Olson

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 25 LHP 5'10" / 165 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	9	4	36	2.72	1.94	26.2%	8.1%	—	K 18.6% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.75
2026	24	MIX3 levels	34	8	94	4.48	3.47	24.9%	6.7%	—	K 20.6% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.21
2027PROJ	25	MLBTOR	46	0	48	4.38	4.38	20.8%	7.4%	0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTOR	35	0	37	4.35	4.34	21.1%	7.4%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTOR	50	0	53	4.36	4.37	21.2%	7.5%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsWesley Wright (age 25) · Nick Maronde (age 25) · Charlie Furbush (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%20.8%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	4	36	149	39	12	0	44%	4.0	18.6%	9.7%	9.0%	0.0%	2.72	2.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	4	36	149	39	12	0	44%	4.0	18.6%	9.7%	9.0%	0.0%	2.72	2.75	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	4	36	149	39	12	0	44%	4.0	26.2%	8.1%	18.1%	0.0%	2.72	1.94	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	8	94	405	101	27	12	24%	2.8	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.48	4.21	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	8	94	405	101	27	12	24%	2.8	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.48	4.21	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	8	94	405	101	27	12	24%	2.8	24.9%	6.7%	18.3%	3.0%	4.48	3.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TOR	46	0	48	203	42	15	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	3.1%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	81	0	85	358	76	26	11	0%	1.0	21.1%	7.4%	13.8%	3.1%	4.35	4.34	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	80	0	84	353	75	26	11	0%	1.0	21.2%	7.5%	13.7%	3.2%	4.36	4.37	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	77	0	81	342	72	26	11	0%	1.1	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	74	0	78	327	75	23	11	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	3.4%	4.35	4.31	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TOR	69	0	73	307	69	23	11	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.4%	15.2%	3.6%	4.43	4.49	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	35	0	37	156	33	12	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	7.4%	13.8%	3.1%	4.35	4.34	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	50	0	53	224	47	17	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	7.5%	13.7%	3.2%	4.36	4.37	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	58	0	61	258	54	20	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	60	0	63	266	61	19	9	0%	1.1	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	3.4%	4.35	4.31	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TOR	59	0	62	262	59	19	9	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.4%	15.2%	3.6%	4.43	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		264	0	277	1171	256	87	39	0%	1.1	21.9%	7.4%	14.5%	3.3%	4.38	4.02	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	63	28	0%	1.1	21.9%	7.4%	14.5%	3.3%	4.38	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		43	12	131	554	111	42	15	28%	3.0	20.1%	7.5%	12.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.82	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	18	200	848	170	64	23	28%	3.0	20.1%	7.5%	12.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.82	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Olson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	20.8%	7.4%	3.1%	—	4.39	21.1%	13.6%	250	+0.01	—	—	—
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	79
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	78
Charlie Furbush L 2011 · 4.95 FIP	25	SW	4.95	18.0%	7.5%	4.4%	.310	2.67	28.8%	21.4%	154	-2.28	2.40	261	78
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	439	77
Pat Misch L 2007 · 3.51 FIP	25	SW	3.51	14.8%	5.7%	1.7%	.321	4.71	12.7%	7.3%	152	+1.20	3.50	265	77
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	76
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	76
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	76
Caden Favors L 2024 · 3.73 FIP	22	SW	3.73	18.2%	4.5%	2.9%	.351	4.82	20.0%	8.8%	236	+1.09	3.73	248	76
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	23.1%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.91	28.6%	21.1%	143	-1.58	2.36	414	75
Jose Alvarez L 2013 · 5.02 FIP	24	SW	5.02	18.0%	8.7%	4.2%	.294	2.98	20.4%	14.8%	124	-2.04	2.78	414	75
Eric Jokisch L 2014 · 5.18 FIP	25	SW	5.18	15.2%	6.1%	4.7%	.306	4.28	12.8%	4.9%	264	-0.90	3.78	427	75
Parker Mushinski L 2021 · 3.50 FIP	25	SW	3.50	24.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.357	4.02	21.7%	11.9%	143	+0.52	3.03	459	74
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	73
Jake Kalish L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	17.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.231	3.90	17.0%	11.9%	352	+0.01	2.68	740	73
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	73
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	73
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	72
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	72
Adam Wolf L 2022 · 3.91 FIP	25	SW	3.91	19.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.292	4.18	16.8%	5.9%	109	+0.27	3.91	383	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	75	21.6%	7.4%	1.27	4.38
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Mark Huismann ('83-'91, 1 WAR*)	1.5	74	23.8%*	6.5%*	1.30*	4.49*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Bobby Tiefenauer ('52-'68, 0 WAR*)	1.6	63	20.4%*	6.7%*	1.10*	4.53*
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57