Victor Morales — OGILVIE

Victor Morales P Visalia Rawhide

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 165 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 36 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%19.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	4	0	4	20	8	3	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	15.0%	25.0%	0.0%	9.00	1.62	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	4	0	4	20	8	3	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	15.0%	25.0%	0.0%	9.00	1.62	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	4	0	4	20	8	3	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	15.0%	25.0%	0.0%	9.00	1.35	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	55	232	52	16	9	0%	1.5	17.6%	8.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.94	4.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	55	232	52	16	9	0%	1.5	17.6%	8.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.94	4.50	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	55	232	52	16	9	0%	1.5	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	3.9%	4.94	4.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	34	0	36	152	30	14	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	47	0	49	208	43	18	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.9%	11.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	46	0	48	205	43	18	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.1%	4.54	4.55	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	20	0	21	89	18	8	3	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.9%	11.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	29	0	30	127	26	11	4	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.1%	4.54	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	217	45	19	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.16	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	74	27	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		41	0	59	252	49	23	8	0%	1.4	19.4%	9.2%	10.1%	3.0%	5.22	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	859	167	79	26	0%	1.4	19.4%	9.2%	10.1%	3.0%	5.22	4.27	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	19.9%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.54	20.7%	11.7%	98	-0.05	—	—	—
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	92
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	92
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	92
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	88
Micah Dallas R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	18.7%	7.1%	3.0%	.273	4.34	17.8%	8.2%	104	+0.30	3.60	202	88
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	87
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	87
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	87
Nick Altermatt R 2024 · 3.39 FIP	24	SU	3.39	21.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.282	3.78	20.0%	13.0%	95	+0.39	2.20	144	87
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	86
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	86
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	86
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	86
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	86
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	86
José Cisnero R 2013 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	20.7%	8.6%	2.6%	.326	4.50	26.1%	14.4%	12	+0.64	2.26	322	86
Fernando Salas R 2010 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	21.8%	9.8%	3.2%	.276	3.29	23.5%	16.8%	162	-0.98	2.60	539	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	20.5%	8.9%	1.18	4.55
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49