Izaak Martinez

P Lake County Captains

Age 25 LHP 5'8" / 198 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ALynchburg Hil…	7	0	13	2.77	4.25	29.1%	12.7%	—	K 21.5% · BB 15.0% · FIP 6.26
2025	23	MIX2 levels	36	0	67	3.24	3.04	21.1%	7.3%	—	K 16.0% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.77
2026	24	MIX3 levels	39	1	66	2.06	3.48	29.4%	9.9%	—	K 24.5% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	25	MLBCLE	67	0	70	4.95	4.95	19.3%	11.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCLE	29	0	30	4.87	4.86	19.9%	11.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCLE	41	0	43	4.85	4.86	20.2%	11.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsWill Gilbert (age 25) · Colton Johnson (age 26) · Luis Perez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%19.3%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	13	55	16	7	2	0%	1.9	21.5%	15.0%	6.5%	5.6%	2.77	6.26	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	13	55	16	7	2	0%	1.9	21.5%	15.0%	6.5%	5.6%	2.77	6.26	—
2024	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	13	55	16	7	2	0%	1.9	29.1%	12.7%	16.4%	3.6%	2.77	4.25	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	67	275	58	20	4	0%	1.9	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	1.7%	3.24	3.77	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	67	275	58	20	4	0%	1.9	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	1.7%	3.24	3.77	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	67	275	58	20	4	0%	1.9	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	1.5%	3.24	3.04	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	1	66	272	80	27	8	3%	1.7	24.5%	10.4%	14.1%	3.6%	2.06	4.32	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	1	66	272	80	27	8	3%	1.7	24.5%	10.4%	14.1%	3.6%	2.06	4.32	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	1	66	272	80	27	8	3%	1.7	29.4%	9.9%	19.5%	2.9%	2.06	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CLE	67	0	70	296	57	33	9	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.3%	8.0%	3.0%	4.95	4.95	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	67	0	70	296	59	33	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.1%	8.9%	3.0%	4.87	4.86	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66	0	69	291	59	32	9	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	CLE	64	0	67	282	57	31	9	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.1%	9.2%	3.2%	4.88	4.92	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	270	54	30	9	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.2%	8.8%	3.3%	4.97	5.03	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	29	0	30	127	25	14	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.1%	8.9%	3.0%	4.87	4.86	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CLE	41	0	43	182	37	20	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CLE	48	0	50	211	43	23	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.1%	9.2%	3.2%	4.88	4.92	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CLE	50	0	52	220	44	25	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.2%	8.8%	3.3%	4.97	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	176	742	149	82	24	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.1%	9.0%	3.2%	4.90	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	93	27	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.1%	9.0%	3.2%	4.90	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		82	1	145	602	122	60	18	1%	1.8	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	2.9%	2.66	4.24	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	1	200	828	169	82	24	1%	1.8	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	2.9%	2.66	4.24	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Izaak Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	19.3%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.88	20.1%	9.1%	206	-0.07	—	—	—
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	89
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	89
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	88
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	87
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	87
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	86
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	86
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	85
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	84
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	84
Michael Johnson L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	25	SU	4.67	18.2%	10.4%	3.3%	.352	4.72	17.4%	7.6%	129	+0.05	3.92	256	84
Gerardo Concepción L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	16.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	104	83
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	83
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	83
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	82
Nick Swiney L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.7%	11.2%	3.8%	.307	4.93	15.1%	1.5%	49	-0.02	2.29	290	82
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	82
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	82
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	19.9%	11.1%	1.21	4.90
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*