Spencer Giesting

P Reno Aces

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #991MiLBFA 2035

ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	141	3.31	2.96	26.2%	7.5%	—	K 20.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.58
2025	24	MIX2 levels	27	27	136	5.31	4.31	21.3%	10.4%	—	K 17.8% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.64
2026	25	MIX2 levels	35	1	56	4.50	3.26	29.5%	10.6%	—	K 24.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	26	26	161	4.63	4.63	20.5%	9.7%	0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBARI	11	11	68	4.53	4.54	20.6%	9.6%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBARI	15	15	96	4.55	4.59	20.6%	9.6%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.6M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command50FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsBrian Burres (age 26) · Ken Waldichuk (age 25) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%20.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP161

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD4550

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	4	15	68	19	10	3	44%	1.7	20.8%	16.6%	4.2%	4.3%	7.04	5.80	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	4	15	68	19	10	3	44%	1.7	27.9%	14.7%	13.2%	4.4%	7.04	5.12	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	24	117	523	124	71	9	100%	4.9	18.3%	15.6%	2.6%	2.3%	4.00	4.78	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	24	24	117	523	124	71	9	100%	4.9	23.7%	13.6%	10.1%	1.7%	4.00	3.80	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	20.8%	8.3%	12.4%	2.1%	3.31	3.58	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	20.8%	8.3%	12.4%	2.1%	3.31	3.58	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	141	588	154	44	12	100%	5.7	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	2.0%	3.31	2.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	17.8%	10.0%	7.9%	3.3%	5.31	4.64	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	17.8%	10.0%	7.9%	3.3%	5.31	4.64	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	136	615	131	64	18	100%	5.0	21.3%	10.4%	10.9%	2.9%	5.31	4.31	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	56	254	75	27	6	3%	1.6	24.3%	10.1%	14.2%	2.7%	4.50	3.83	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	56	254	75	27	6	3%	1.6	24.3%	10.1%	14.2%	2.7%	4.50	3.83	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	56	254	75	27	6	3%	1.6	29.5%	10.6%	18.9%	2.4%	4.50	3.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	26	26	161	680	139	66	20	100%	6.2	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	159	671	138	64	21	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.62	4.63	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	154	651	134	63	21	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.2%	4.65	4.69	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	147	622	127	61	20	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.80	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	138	584	118	58	20	100%	6.3	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.5%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	129	545	108	56	20	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.7%	5.04	5.16	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	68	287	59	28	8	100%	6.2	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.54	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	96	405	84	39	12	100%	6.4	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	107	452	92	44	14	100%	6.3	20.4%	9.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.70	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	110	464	94	46	15	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.3%	4.75	4.85	-0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	109	460	91	48	16	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.5%	4.93	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	79	491	2072	420	205	66	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.70	4.39	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	171	84	27	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.70	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		120	81	465	2048	403	229	54	68%	3.9	19.7%	11.2%	8.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.31	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	880	173	98	23	68%	3.9	19.7%	11.2%	8.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.31	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Giesting (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.5%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.70	20.6%	10.9%	460	+0.07	—	—	—
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	79
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	78
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	76
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	74
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	74
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	74
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	72
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	71
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	71
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	71
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	70
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	70
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	70
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	69
Alex Cornwell L 2024 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	18.6%	9.9%	1.9%	.355	4.57	14.4%	4.8%	93	+0.75	3.16	381	68
Frank Garces L 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.317	4.84	15.0%	7.1%	132	+0.52	4.32	306	68
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	68
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	67
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	67
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	148	20.4%	9.8%	1.26	4.74
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Elmer Knetzer ('09-'17, 6 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.4%*	9.7%*	1.10*	4.40*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86