Johnathan Harmon

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+CIN	10	10	46	4.30	3.58	21.1%	6.7%	—	K 16.3% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.08
2025	24	MIX2 levels	8	7	29	3.45	3.07	19.7%	9.4%	—	K 15.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.52
2026	25	MIX2 levels	27	24	125	5.63	5.10	18.0%	8.9%	—	K 14.7% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.82
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	10	10	60	5.37	5.37	15.5%	9.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCIN	7	7	42	5.28	5.30	16.1%	9.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCIN	11	11	64	5.26	5.30	16.4%	9.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Josh Banks (age 26) · Andrew Quezada (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%15.5%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	1	2	7	2	0	0	50%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	1	2	7	2	0	0	50%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	92	399	97	35	8	70%	4.0	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.30	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	92	399	97	35	8	70%	4.0	24.3%	8.8%	15.5%	2.0%	3.90	3.26	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.5%	4.30	4.08	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	2.5%	4.30	4.08	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	10	10	46	194	41	13	5	100%	4.6	21.1%	6.7%	14.4%	2.6%	4.30	3.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	3.45	3.52	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	1.2%	3.45	3.52	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	29	127	25	12	1	88%	3.6	19.7%	9.4%	10.2%	0.8%	3.45	3.07	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	125	539	97	48	23	89%	4.6	14.7%	9.2%	5.5%	5.1%	5.63	5.82	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	125	539	97	48	23	89%	4.6	14.7%	9.2%	5.5%	5.1%	5.63	5.82	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	125	539	97	48	23	89%	4.6	18.0%	8.9%	9.1%	4.3%	5.63	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	10	10	60	253	39	23	9	100%	6.0	15.5%	9.1%	6.4%	3.7%	5.37	5.37	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	18	18	110	467	75	42	17	100%	6.1	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	3.7%	5.28	5.30	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	18	18	107	453	74	41	17	100%	6.0	16.4%	9.1%	7.4%	3.8%	5.26	5.30	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	102	432	71	40	17	100%	6.0	16.5%	9.3%	7.2%	3.9%	5.31	5.38	-0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	96	407	66	39	16	100%	6.0	16.3%	9.5%	6.8%	4.0%	5.43	5.53	-0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	42	177	29	16	7	100%	6.0	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	3.7%	5.28	5.30	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	64	270	44	25	10	100%	5.8	16.4%	9.1%	7.4%	3.8%	5.26	5.30	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	72	304	50	28	12	100%	6.0	16.5%	9.3%	7.2%	3.9%	5.31	5.38	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	75	317	52	30	13	100%	6.2	16.3%	9.5%	6.8%	4.0%	5.43	5.53	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	253	1069	175	99	41	100%	6.0	16.4%	9.3%	7.1%	3.9%	5.33	5.01	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	138	78	32	100%	6.0	16.4%	9.3%	7.1%	3.9%	5.33	5.01	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		70	58	294	1266	204	116	44	83%	4.2	16.1%	9.2%	6.9%	3.5%	4.63	4.81	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	862	139	79	30	83%	4.2	16.1%	9.2%	6.9%	3.5%	4.63	4.81	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnathan Harmon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	15.5%	9.1%	3.7%	—	5.33	16.4%	7.2%	320	-0.04	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	83
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	82
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	81
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	81
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	79
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	79
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	79
Josh Hancock R 2004 · 6.37 FIP	26	SP-	6.37	12.3%	8.9%	5.8%	.262	4.15	14.7%	8.6%	104	-2.22	3.57	167	78
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	78
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	77
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	77
Darrell Rasner R 2007 · 5.15 FIP	26	SP	5.15	9.9%	7.2%	3.6%	.284	4.43	13.1%	5.7%	113	-0.72	4.07	158	77
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	77
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	76
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	95	16.2%	9.2%	1.48	5.32
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29
Brandon Backe ('09)	2.6	88	15.4%	10.2%	1.49	5.23
Euel Moore ('34-'36, 0 WAR*)	1.1	75	16.0%*	8.8%*	1.39*	5.07*
Dick Lange ('72-'75, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	16.6%*	9.6%*	1.42*	5.49*
Hector Noesí ('19)	2.1	70	16.4%	8.7%	1.53	5.51
Max Macon ('38-'47, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	15.4%*	9.9%*	1.46*	4.98*