Victor Cabreja

P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ROKPIT	12	0	20	4.43	4.03	17.6%	4.4%	—	K 12.0% · BB 5.5% · FIP 5.54
2025	23	MIX2 levels	24	15	100	2.89	3.73	12.7%	7.2%	—	K 9.3% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.26
2026	24	A+PIT	34	4	74	5.99	5.24	19.0%	10.3%	—	K 14.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 6.26
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	67	0	70	6.07	6.07	10.2%	12.6%	-1.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBPIT	37	0	39	5.81	5.76	12.7%	12.0%	-0.5
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBPIT	53	0	56	5.69	5.68	13.4%	11.8%	-0.7

Next 3 projected WAR -2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff20Control50Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAlec Gamboa (age 25) · Nick Dombkowski (age 25) · Estevan Gonzalez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132140vR 148

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%10.2%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%-2.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL5050

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	14	6	35	144	36	15	1	43%	2.5	17.0%	13.0%	4.0%	0.9%	4.67	3.79	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	14	6	35	144	36	15	1	43%	2.5	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	0.7%	4.67	2.70	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	13	4	35	138	32	16	1	31%	2.7	15.8%	14.5%	1.3%	1.0%	2.34	4.18	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	13	4	35	138	32	16	1	31%	2.7	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	0.7%	2.34	3.01	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	12	0	20	91	16	4	3	0%	1.7	12.0%	5.5%	6.5%	5.0%	4.43	5.54	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	12	0	20	91	16	4	3	0%	1.7	12.0%	5.5%	6.5%	5.0%	4.43	5.54	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	12	0	20	91	16	4	3	0%	1.7	17.6%	4.4%	13.2%	3.3%	4.43	4.03	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	100	401	51	29	6	62%	4.2	9.3%	8.6%	0.7%	1.6%	2.89	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	100	401	51	29	6	62%	4.2	9.3%	8.6%	0.7%	1.6%	2.89	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	15	100	401	51	29	6	62%	4.2	12.7%	7.2%	5.5%	1.5%	2.89	3.73	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	4	74	331	63	34	14	12%	2.2	14.7%	11.8%	2.8%	5.3%	5.99	6.26	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	4	74	331	63	34	14	12%	2.2	14.7%	11.8%	2.8%	5.3%	5.99	6.26	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	4	74	331	63	34	14	12%	2.2	19.0%	10.3%	8.8%	4.2%	5.99	5.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	67	0	70	296	30	37	10	0%	1.0	10.2%	12.6%	-2.4%	3.4%	6.07	6.07	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	85	0	90	379	48	46	13	0%	1.1	12.7%	12.0%	0.7%	3.3%	5.81	5.76	-1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	84	0	88	373	50	44	13	0%	1.1	13.4%	11.8%	1.6%	3.4%	5.69	5.68	-1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	82	0	86	362	50	42	12	0%	1.0	13.7%	11.7%	2.0%	3.4%	5.67	5.70	-1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	78	0	82	345	47	41	12	0%	1.0	13.7%	11.9%	1.8%	3.6%	5.73	5.79	-1.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	73	0	77	325	50	37	12	0%	1.1	15.3%	11.4%	4.0%	3.8%	5.71	5.70	-1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	37	0	39	165	21	20	5	0%	1.1	12.7%	12.0%	0.7%	3.3%	5.81	5.76	-0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	53	0	56	236	32	28	8	0%	1.1	13.4%	11.8%	1.6%	3.4%	5.69	5.68	-0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	61	0	64	270	37	32	9	0%	1.0	13.7%	11.7%	2.0%	3.4%	5.67	5.70	-0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	64	0	67	283	39	34	10	0%	1.0	13.7%	11.9%	1.8%	3.6%	5.73	5.79	-0.9
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	63	0	66	279	43	32	11	0%	1.0	15.3%	11.4%	4.0%	3.8%	5.71	5.70	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		277	0	291	1229	171	144	43	0%	1.1	13.9%	11.7%	2.1%	3.5%	5.72	5.34	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	117	99	30	0%	1.1	13.9%	11.7%	2.1%	3.5%	5.72	5.34	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		97	29	263	1105	143	117	31	30%	2.7	12.9%	10.6%	2.3%	2.8%	4.04	4.89	-5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	22	200	840	109	89	24	30%	2.7	12.9%	10.6%	2.3%	2.8%	4.04	4.89	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Cabreja (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	10.2%	12.6%	3.4%	—	5.71	13.3%	1.4%	264	-0.36	—	—	—
Alec Gamboa L 2022 · 5.36 FIP	25	SW	5.36	14.8%	13.1%	3.4%	.287	3.92	16.3%	4.4%	169	-1.44	1.46	444	77
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	73
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	72
T.J. Sikkema L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	16.1%	13.2%	4.8%	.245	3.86	17.2%	9.6%	159	-2.18	3.57	300	71
Helmis Rodriguez L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SW	4.92	11.0%	12.3%	2.2%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	336	70
Nick Bierbrodt L 2003 · 5.58 FIP	25	SW	5.58	13.0%	10.8%	4.0%	.342	7.74	12.3%	-11.2%	17	+2.16	5.15	145	70
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	70
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	70
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	70
Dan Lietz L 2018 · 5.82 FIP	24	SU	5.82	11.1%	13.2%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	188	70
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	69
Kumar Nambiar L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	25	SU	4.94	14.0%	13.0%	2.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	221	69
Ronnie Glenn L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	13.1%	11.4%	2.9%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	212	68
Matt Mikulski L 2024 · 6.18 FIP	25	SU	6.18	15.3%	17.1%	4.0%	.275	4.98	19.5%	-8.3%	18	-1.20	4.92	223	68
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.82	14.5%	3.2%	142	-0.92	3.41	239	68
Dalton Stambaugh L 2022 · 5.32 FIP	25	SW	5.32	15.4%	11.9%	3.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	148	68
James Ziemba L 2018 · 5.16 FIP	23	SU	5.16	11.7%	12.4%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	110	67
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	67
Cameron Ming L 2019 · 5.54 FIP	23	SU	5.54	14.3%	9.4%	4.5%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	111	67
Jared Poche L 2019 · 5.93 FIP	24	SU	5.93	13.4%	15.2%	3.7%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.09	156	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	82	13.2%	11.9%	1.34	5.77
Julio Santana ('06)	2.4	80	14.4%	10.8%	1.32	5.30
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Wayne Franklin ('06)	1.6	81	14.8%	11.5%	1.59	5.54
George Grant ('23-'31, -3 WAR*)	1.7	87	14.4%*	11.4%*	1.10*	5.66*
Vito Valentinetti ('54-'59, -2 WAR*)	1.3	86	13.0%*	10.5%*	1.44*	5.26*
Vince Colbert ('70-'72, -1 WAR*)	1.2	83	15.7%*	11.0%*	1.17*	5.33*