Mauricio Estrella

P San Jose Giants

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 222 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKSF	14	2	23	9.53	4.38	22.7%	8.2%	—	K 15.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.46
2025	21	MIX2 levels	18	0	33	3.86	3.62	25.3%	12.0%	—	K 19.1% · BB 16.1% · FIP 5.08
2026	22	MIX2 levels	35	0	74	4.14	3.03	28.3%	8.8%	—	K 21.3% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	23	MLBSF	37	0	39	4.71	4.71	21.4%	11.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSF	28	0	29	4.59	4.53	22.1%	10.2%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSF	44	0	46	4.48	4.42	22.6%	9.7%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBen Anderson (age 23) · Billy Corcoran (age 23) · Alec Barger (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	13	63	263	64	15	3	100%	4.8	16.5%	7.1%	9.4%	1.5%	3.29	3.42	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	13	13	63	263	64	15	3	100%	4.8	24.3%	5.7%	18.6%	1.1%	3.29	2.40	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	8	60	289	52	24	9	47%	3.5	12.5%	10.0%	2.6%	3.8%	7.31	5.38	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	8	60	289	52	24	9	47%	3.5	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.1%	7.31	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	15.5%	10.2%	5.2%	4.3%	9.53	5.46	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	15.5%	10.2%	5.2%	4.3%	9.53	5.46	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	3.6%	9.53	4.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	19.1%	16.1%	3.0%	2.8%	3.86	5.08	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	19.1%	16.1%	3.0%	2.8%	3.86	5.08	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	25.3%	12.0%	13.3%	2.0%	3.86	3.62	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	74	318	90	28	7	0%	2.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	74	318	90	28	7	0%	2.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	74	318	90	28	7	0%	2.1	28.3%	8.8%	19.5%	2.2%	4.14	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SF	37	0	39	165	35	18	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	65	0	68	288	64	29	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	69	292	66	28	9	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.42	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	69	292	67	28	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SF	65	0	68	288	66	28	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	SF	63	0	66	280	64	28	9	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	SF	60	0	63	267	60	27	9	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.3%	4.58	4.64	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	28	0	29	122	27	12	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	44	0	46	194	44	19	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.42	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	SF	52	0	55	232	53	22	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SF	55	0	58	245	56	24	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	SF	56	0	59	249	57	25	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SF	54	0	57	241	54	24	8	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.3%	4.58	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		290	0	304	1285	291	126	39	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.8%	12.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.11	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	83	26	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.8%	12.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		97	23	253	1130	193	116	33	24%	2.6	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.54	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	18	200	894	153	91	26	24%	2.6	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.54	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mauricio Estrella (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.4%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.45	22.5%	12.7%	207	-0.26	—	—	—
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	88
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	88
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	86
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	86
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	86
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	85
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	85
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	85
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	85
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	84
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	83
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	83
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	83
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	82
Alex Klonowski R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.69	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.11	3.58	539	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	63	22.5%	9.9%	1.18	4.52
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*