Wilson Esterlin — OGILVIE

Wilson Esterlin P FCL Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%23.1%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	12	5	37	151	48	22	2	42%	3.1	21.6%	18.2%	3.4%	2.0%	2.70	4.65	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	12	5	37	151	48	22	2	42%	3.1	31.8%	14.6%	17.2%	1.3%	2.70	2.99	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	49	210	63	35	8	57%	3.5	21.7%	16.8%	4.9%	3.8%	5.18	5.46	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	49	210	63	35	8	57%	3.5	30.0%	16.7%	13.3%	3.8%	5.18	4.81	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	15	0	20	108	30	14	5	0%	1.3	18.9%	16.2%	2.7%	6.7%	9.90	7.21	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	15	0	20	108	30	14	5	0%	1.3	18.9%	16.2%	2.7%	6.7%	9.90	7.21	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	15	0	20	108	30	14	5	0%	1.3	27.8%	13.0%	14.8%	4.6%	9.90	5.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	NYM	11	0	12	51	12	6	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	20	9	3	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.46	4.39	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.46	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.46	4.01	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.46	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		41	13	105	469	99	80	18	32%	2.6	21.0%	17.1%	3.9%	3.8%	5.21	5.60	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	25	200	891	187	152	34	32%	2.6	21.0%	17.1%	3.9%	3.8%	5.21	5.60	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilson Esterlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	23.1%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.39	23.9%	13.7%	20	-0.21	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	82
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	81
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	80
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	80
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	80
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	79
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	79
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	78
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	78
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	77
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	77
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	77
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	77
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	76
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	76
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	76
Anthony Cruz R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	21	SW	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	2.0%	.192	5.58	16.2%	1.2%	175	+1.87	3.32	272	76
Franco Aleman R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SW	3.95	21.3%	8.2%	2.9%	.391	2.98	28.9%	18.9%	114	-0.97	2.28	226	76
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	76
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	76