Alfredo Velásquez

3B Frederick Keys

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 153 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	AABAL	84	.259/.286/.272	0	1	57	—	.268/.286/.280
2025	20	ABAL	191	.250/.277/.311	1	15	48	—	.235/.255/.295
2026	21	AABAL	34	.107/.167/.107	0	0	-31	—	.107/.167/.107
2026	21	A+BAL	55	.327/.377/.449	1	4	91	—	.294/.321/.412
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBBAL	1	.228/.256/.297	0	0	51	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBBAL	103	.234/.264/.318	1	2	60	-0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBBAL	176	.238/.271/.335	2	4	66	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

K%99

Speed87

Whiff%73

wOBA69

wRC+69

ISO36

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsNick Liles (age 23) · Euribiel Angeles (age 22) · Ivan Bellazetin (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .256 / .297

PA1

HR0

K%19

BB%3

BABIP277

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE20

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	181	159	47	6	4	1	13	12	7	14	3	296	374	403	777	107	311	7	7	348	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	95	87	20	5	0	2	7	16	1	7	0	230	295	356	651	126	261	17	7	294	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	31	31	6	1	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	194	194	226	419	32	231	16	0	187	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	155	143	35	6	1	0	9	27	0	11	3	245	289	301	590	56	297	17	6	264	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	33	31	9	1	1	0	1	5	1	4	0	290	333	387	720	97	346	15	3	323	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	84	81	21	1	0	0	3	12	0	1	0	259	286	272	557	12	304	14	4	256	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	55	53	8	2	0	0	1	8	0	2	0	151	167	189	355	38	178	15	2	158	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	191	180	45	2	3	1	6	17	1	15	6	250	277	311	588	61	268	9	3	260	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	34	28	3	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	1	107	167	107	274		143	21	3	122	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Frederick Keys	—	55	49	16	1	1	1	4	3	0	4	2	327	377	449	826	122	333	5	7	355	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	27	25	6	2	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	240	296	320	616	80	286	15	7	281	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	181	163	33	4	3	1	9	15	7	14	3	202	274	282	556	80	206	8	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	95	90	15	4	0	1	4	24	1	7	0	167	211	244	455	78	209	25	4	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	31	31	6	1	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	194	194	226	419	32	227	19	0	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	155	146	30	4	1	0	6	35	0	11	3	205	237	247	483	41	264	23	4	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	33	31	7	1	1	0	1	7	1	4	0	226	273	323	595	97	278	21	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	84	82	22	1	0	0	2	14	0	1	0	268	286	280	566	12	326	17	2	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	55	53	7	2	0	0	1	10	0	2	0	132	148	170	318	38	157	18	2	129	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	191	183	43	2	3	1	4	23	1	15	6	235	255	295	550	60	258	12	2	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	34	28	3	0	0	0	1	9	1	0	1	107	167	107	274		144	26	3	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	55	51	15	1	1	1	2	4	0	4	2	294	321	412	733	118	290	7	4	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	27	26	6	2	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	231	259	308	567	77	254	19	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	181	163	33	4	3	1	9	15	7	14	3	202	274	282	556	80	215	8	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	—	181	159	47	6	4	1	13	12	7	14	3	296	374	403	777	107	311	7	7	348	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	95	90	15	4	0	1	4	24	1	7	0	167	211	244	455	78	215	25	4	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	95	87	20	5	0	2	7	16	1	7	0	230	295	356	651	126	261	17	7	294	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	219	208	44	6	2	0	7	49	1	16	3	212	241	260	500	48	273	22	3	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	219	205	50	8	2	0	10	37	1	16	3	244	282	302	585	59	294	17	5	262	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	330	318	72	4	3	1	7	48	1	18	6	226	245	267	513	41	262	15	2	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	330	314	74	5	3	1	10	37	1	18	6	236	261	280	541	45	263	11	3	242	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	116	104	23	2	1	1	5	18	1	4	3	221	264	288	552	67	259	16	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	116	102	25	3	1	1	7	14	1	4	3	245	300	324	624	78	276	12	6	270	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	181	163	33	4	3	1	9	15	7	14	3	202	274	282	556	80	206	8	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	95	90	15	4	0	1	4	24	1	7	0	167	211	244	455	78	209	25	4	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	219	209	44	6	2	0	7	49	1	16	3	211	241	258	499	48	261	22	3	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	330	319	72	4	3	1	7	48	1	18	6	226	245	266	512	41	258	15	2	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	116	109	23	2	1	1	5	18	1	4	3	211	264	275	539	64	239	16	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	219	209	44	6	2	0	7	49	1	16	3	211	241	258	499	48	261	22	3	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	330	319	72	4	3	1	7	48	1	18	6	226	245	266	512	41	258	15	2	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	116	109	23	2	1	1	5	18	1	4	3	211	264	275	539	64	239	16	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	280	268	61	11	2	1	8	53	2	6	2	225	253	292	545	67	274	19	3	244	51	-16	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	228	256	297	553	69	277	0	0	248	51	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	35%	298	284	66	12	2	3	10	56	2	7	2	230	261	313	574	82	275	19	3	256	60	-14	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	46%	380	361	84	15	2	5	13	71	3	9	3	234	268	328	596	94	277	19	3	266	66	-15	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	422	400	94	17	2	6	16	80	3	10	3	236	272	339	611	102	278	19	4	272	70	-15	+1	+0	+2	+9	-0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	448	423	101	18	2	8	18	85	4	10	3	237	275	344	620	107	278	19	4	276	73	-15	+1	+0	+2	+10	-0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	457	430	101	18	2	8	20	88	4	10	4	237	276	345	621	108	278	19	4	277	73	-14	+0	+0	+2	+10	-0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	458	431	101	18	2	8	20	90	4	10	4	235	274	340	614	105	277	20	4	274	71	-16	+0	-1	+2	+10	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	35%	103	98	23	4	1	1	3	19	1	2	1	234	264	318	583	85	279	18	3	260	60	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	46%	176	167	39	7	1	2	6	33	1	4	1	238	271	335	606	97	281	19	3	270	66	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	218	206	49	9	1	3	8	41	2	5	2	240	276	346	621	105	282	19	4	276	70	-8	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	243	229	55	10	1	4	10	46	2	6	2	241	279	352	630	111	282	19	4	280	73	-8	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	248	233	55	10	1	4	11	48	2	6	2	240	280	352	632	112	282	19	4	281	73	-8	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	249	234	55	10	1	4	11	49	2	5	2	238	278	347	625	109	281	20	4	278	71	-8	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1237	1167	276	50	6	18	49	236	10	28	10	237	273	336	609	99	281	19	4	276	60	-44	+2	-0	+4	+27	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	613	144	26	3	9	26	124	5	15	5	235	272	331	603	96	280	19	4	276	60	-23	+1	-0	+2	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3609	3407	778	126	22	43	135	663	33	119	35	228	265	316	581	88	270	18	4	257	60	-101	+4	-1	+10	+58	-3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	614	141	23	4	8	24	119	6	21	6	230	266	319	585	90	271	18	4	257	60	-25	+1	-0	+2	+14	-0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#3Jimmy Cooney'17-'28 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,722 PA	2.6	1,722	2	30	235*	281*	341*	+17	+8	0.5	0.5
/162	664	1	12	+6.7	+3.0	0.2	pk7: 0
#4Bobby Lowe'01-'07 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,085 PA	3.1	2,085	4	65	229*	274*	350*	+6	+6	0.1	0.1
/162	664	1	21	+2.0	+1.8	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.9	1,237	19	28	237	270	339	+4	+2	-0.3	-0.1
/162	664	10	15	+2.4	+0.8	-0.2	pk7: 0
#5Bobby Young'48-'58 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,719 PA	4.1	2,719	15	18	243*	294*	341*	+10	-0	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	4	4	+2.4	-0.1	-0.2	pk7: -1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfredo Velásquez (OGILVIE)	22	50	20	60	20	223/251/289	66	274	1	4	19%	3%	51	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Liles 2010 · A	23	46→56	35→30	55→50	41	217/253/281	65	260	2	16	18%	4%	50	-2.3	255/290/319	64	304	1	13	16%	4%	72	-0.7	265/302/323	58	315	1	12	15%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Euribiel Angeles 2024 · AA	22	52→62	38→40	51→50	40	246/276/328	82	298	5	14	19%	3%	70	-0.9	238/274/323	85	276	7	15	16%	4%	68	-1.0	238/279/320	82	274	7	15	15%	5%	66	-0.9
✕Ivan Bellazetin 2009 · AAA	22	48→55	36→40	49→55	42	226/259/288	63	271	3	16	18%	4%	53	-2.1	250/290/321	71	304	3	14	18%	4%	73	-0.6	242/279/318	75	285	6	5	17%	4%	65	-0.5
✕Kurtis Muller 2011 · A	22	50	34→40	54→55	44	233/288/289	56	284	2	8	18%	5%	66	-1.1	222/289/311	89	272	5	21	19%	6%	72	-0.7	218/290/319	101	264	6	29	19%	6%	71	-0.4
✕Angelys Nina 2011 · A	22	47→56	37→45	52→50	39	226/251/299	73	274	5	16	20%	3%	53	-2.1	241/273/331	90	293	7	13	19%	4%	70	-0.9	246/282/341	96	293	7	13	18%	4%	72	-0.5
✕Omar Luna 2009 · A	22	47→57	36→30	48→50	39	223/249/291	68	275	3	13	20%	3%	51	-2.3	212/238/268	56	261	2	10	19%	3%	40	-3.0	259/290/315	56	300	2	12	14%	3%	68	-0.6
✕Dru Baker 2022 · A	22	45→55	38→40	56→60	41	213/265/295	82	297	4	14	29%	6%	59	-1.7	241/298/346	105	336	10	30	29%	7%	83	+0.1	250/304/340	90	346	8	39	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Ivan Castillo 2017 · AA	22	44→54	37→45	56→50	39	209/246/289	80	260	4	16	21%	3%	49	-2.4	235/274/329	94	284	5	12	18%	4%	69	-0.9	253/288/355	102	299	5	11	17%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Calten Daal 2016 · A	22	53→55	33→30	51→50	40	249/281/289	40	317	1	15	22%	4%	61	-1.5	246/287/311	65	324	4	14	24%	5%	70	-0.9	271/294/315	45	353	1	11	23%	3%	68	-0.4
✕Luke Willis 2016 · A	23	45	34→40	54→50	43	212/258/266	54	268	2	12	21%	5%	49	-2.4	227/279/300	73	310	5	12	26%	6%	65	-1.2	246/297/315	69	338	5	15	27%	6%	72	-0.3
✕Miguel Villarroel 2024 · A	22	46→53	38→40	53→55	42	222/268/302	80	280	6	15	22%	5%	61	-1.5	226/263/302	76	326	5	24	30%	4%	59	-1.7	229/267/301	72	337	4	28	32%	4%	57	-0.9
✕Eliezer Mesa 2011 · A	22	50→54	37→40	54→55	39	235/267/323	87	309	3	15	24%	4%	65	-1.2	222/255/301	79	297	4	18	25%	4%	55	-1.9	232/261/301	69	305	3	19	24%	3%	55	-0.9
✕Keith Grieshaber 2017 · A	22	48	35→40	51→55	39	222/265/288	66	294	2	11	24%	4%	57	-1.8	233/295/321	88	294	5	17	21%	6%	76	-0.4	246/315/341	95	301	6	26	19%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Eric Farris 2008 · A	22	51→58	36→40	53→60	45	238/274/310	73	272	3	16	14%	4%	65	-1.2	253/284/328	75	289	5	28	14%	4%	72	-0.7	260/291/333	73	293	5	35	13%	3%	73	-0.4
✕Errol Robinson 2017 · A	22	44→49	38→40	54→55	40	211/253/291	80	280	4	15	26%	5%	53	-2.1	221/269/306	85	301	7	16	27%	6%	63	-1.4	197/269/244	47	303	3	26	33%	8%	46	-0.9
✕Randy Romero 2022 · A	22	44	35→40	59→60	44	203/246/267	64	246	2	21	18%	5%	45	-2.7	199/243/266	67	290	4	13	31%	5%	43	-2.8	168/200/203	36	259	3	19	36%	3%	12	-1.0
✕Nick Allen 2021 · A	22	46→56	38→40	52→50	44	219/270/303	84	277	4	14	22%	6%	62	-1.4	232/283/326	94	288	8	14	21%	6%	72	-0.7	253/316/328	75	310	5	13	19%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Jonathan Reynoso 2015 · A	22	44→54	36→30	51→55	39	209/246/267	58	272	3	15	24%	4%	45	-2.7	227/260/283	56	309	3	18	26%	4%	53	-2.1	233/262/280	47	317	3	23	26%	3%	49	-1.3
✕Jecksson Flores 2016 · A	22	45→55	35→40	51→55	45	211/260/275	64	256	2	15	18%	6%	52	-2.2	215/257/295	80	265	5	16	20%	4%	55	-1.9	228/281/311	83	276	6	17	19%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Pedro Ciriaco 2008 · A	22	46→56	35→40	48→55	38	218/248/277	59	278	3	12	23%	3%	47	-2.6	244/266/319	75	302	5	23	20%	3%	63	-1.3	251/272/338	87	306	5	26	19%	2%	68	-0.6

Alfredo Velásquez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps