Nicolas Cruz

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	15	2	32	5.06	2.79	29.4%	11.2%	—	K 19.2% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.84
2025	21	MIX2 levels	37	2	62	3.65	2.26	25.2%	6.4%	—	K 18.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.01
2026	22	A+LAD	37	0	55	5.07	2.68	28.8%	9.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.67
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	59	0	62	4.43	4.43	20.7%	9.6%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAD	26	0	27	4.35	4.31	21.5%	9.1%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAD	40	0	42	4.28	4.24	22.1%	8.9%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control55Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJohnny Barbato (age 23) · Colby Morris (age 24) · Austin Ross (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%20.7%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	15	0	22	101	20	4	3	0%	1.5	13.5%	5.0%	8.5%	4.3%	3.63	4.93	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	15	0	22	101	20	4	3	0%	1.5	19.8%	4.0%	15.8%	3.0%	3.63	3.59	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	11	6	28	123	21	8	0	55%	2.6	11.6%	8.1%	3.5%	0.0%	2.86	3.15	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	11	6	28	123	21	8	0	55%	2.6	17.1%	6.5%	10.6%	0.0%	2.86	2.46	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	32	143	42	16	2	13%	2.1	19.2%	16.1%	3.1%	2.4%	5.06	4.84	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	32	143	42	16	2	13%	2.1	19.2%	16.1%	3.1%	2.4%	5.06	4.84	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	2	32	143	42	16	2	13%	2.1	29.4%	11.2%	18.2%	1.4%	5.06	2.79	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	62	250	63	16	2	5%	1.7	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	1.0%	3.65	3.01	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	62	250	63	16	2	5%	1.7	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	1.0%	3.65	3.01	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	62	250	63	16	2	5%	1.7	25.2%	6.4%	18.8%	0.8%	3.65	2.26	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	37	0	55	250	72	23	4	0%	1.5	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	2.0%	5.07	3.67	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	37	0	55	250	72	23	4	0%	1.5	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	2.0%	5.07	3.67	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	37	0	55	250	72	23	4	0%	1.5	28.8%	9.2%	19.6%	1.6%	5.07	2.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	59	0	62	262	54	25	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	60	0	63	266	57	24	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.31	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	61	0	64	270	59	24	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.28	4.24	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	61	0	64	270	60	24	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	60	0	63	266	59	24	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	26	0	27	114	25	10	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.31	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	40	0	42	177	39	16	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.28	4.24	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	49	0	51	215	48	19	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.9%	13.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	51	0	54	228	51	20	6	0%	1.1	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	0	174	734	163	66	20	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.27	3.87	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	76	23	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.7%	4.27	3.87	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		115	10	199	867	158	83	15	9%	1.7	18.2%	9.6%	8.6%	1.8%	4.15	3.74	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	10	200	870	158	84	15	9%	1.7	18.2%	9.6%	8.6%	1.8%	4.15	3.74	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nicolas Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	20.7%	9.6%	2.7%	—	4.26	22.0%	13.0%	191	-0.17	—	—	—
Johnny Barbato R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.32	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.75	2.59	304	92
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	92
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	92
Alex Klonowski R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.69	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.11	3.58	539	91
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	90
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	90
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	90
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	90
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	90
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	89
T.J. Weir R 2015 · 3.49 FIP	23	SU	3.49	19.9%	9.1%	1.7%	.330	3.60	19.6%	11.1%	234	+0.11	3.15	349	89
Isaac Sanchez R 2016 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.5%	9.7%	1.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	130	89
Matt Frawley R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	19.5%	10.0%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	139	89
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	89
Garrett McMillan R 2024 · 3.30 FIP	23	SU	3.30	21.2%	8.2%	1.7%	.324	3.53	18.9%	14.6%	48	+0.23	3.30	118	89
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	88
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	88
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	88
Ronnie Muck R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	23	SU	3.24	22.1%	8.7%	1.7%	.316	4.63	15.0%	0.3%	75	+1.39	3.24	137	88
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	88

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	21.8%	9.1%	1.06	4.31
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kerry Ligtenberg ('05)	2.0	65	21.5%	9.5%	1.06	3.82
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*