Angel Roman

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 162 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKWSH	15	2	39	3.20	2.34	20.0%	4.4%	—	K 13.6% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.12
2024	20	MIX2 levels	23	3	50	2.88	1.86	25.3%	7.4%	—	K 17.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 2.74
2025	21	AWSH	28	12	80	7.79	4.20	13.6%	8.8%	—	K 10.1% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	23	MLBWSH	59	0	62	5.82	5.82	10.0%	12.6%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBWSH	30	0	31	5.56	5.48	13.1%	12.0%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBWSH	47	0	49	5.35	5.27	15.0%	11.7%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff20Control45Command25

CompsEdwin Escobar (age 23) · Graeme Stinson (age 23) · Estevan Gonzalez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127136vR 144

ERA5.82

FIP5.82

K%10.0%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%-2.6%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4545

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	14	0	27	111	35	12	1	0%	2.0	21.4%	13.5%	7.9%	1.4%	2.96	3.75	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	14	0	27	111	35	12	1	0%	2.0	31.5%	10.8%	20.7%	0.9%	2.96	2.33	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	2	39	160	32	7	1	13%	2.6	13.6%	5.5%	8.1%	0.9%	3.20	3.12	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	15	2	39	160	32	7	1	13%	2.6	20.0%	4.4%	15.6%	0.6%	3.20	2.34	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	50	217	55	16	0	13%	2.2	17.8%	9.1%	8.8%	0.0%	2.88	2.74	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	50	217	55	16	0	13%	2.2	17.8%	9.1%	8.8%	0.0%	2.88	2.74	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	3	50	217	55	16	0	13%	2.2	25.3%	7.4%	18.0%	0.0%	2.88	1.86	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	28	12	80	374	51	33	7	43%	2.8	10.1%	10.4%	-0.3%	2.3%	7.79	4.85	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	28	12	80	374	51	33	7	43%	2.8	10.1%	10.4%	-0.3%	2.3%	7.79	4.85	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	28	12	80	374	51	33	7	43%	2.8	13.6%	8.8%	4.8%	1.9%	7.79	4.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	WSH	59	0	62	262	26	33	8	0%	1.1	10.0%	12.6%	-2.6%	2.9%	5.82	5.82	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	70	0	74	310	41	37	9	0%	1.1	13.1%	12.0%	1.0%	2.9%	5.56	5.48	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	71	0	74	314	47	37	9	0%	1.0	15.0%	11.7%	3.3%	2.9%	5.35	5.27	-0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	71	0	74	314	50	36	9	0%	1.0	16.1%	11.5%	4.5%	2.9%	5.22	5.17	-0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	70	0	73	309	50	36	9	0%	1.0	16.2%	11.6%	4.7%	2.9%	5.19	5.18	-0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	68	0	71	300	48	35	9	0%	1.0	16.1%	11.7%	4.4%	3.0%	5.24	5.27	-0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	45	34	9	0%	1.0	15.9%	11.9%	3.9%	3.2%	5.33	5.40	-0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	269	42	33	9	0%	1.0	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	3.4%	5.48	5.58	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	31	131	17	16	4	0%	1.0	13.1%	12.0%	1.0%	2.9%	5.56	5.48	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	47	0	49	207	31	24	6	0%	1.0	15.0%	11.7%	3.3%	2.9%	5.35	5.27	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56	0	59	249	40	29	7	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.5%	4.5%	2.9%	5.22	5.17	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	59	0	62	262	43	30	8	0%	1.1	16.2%	11.6%	4.7%	2.9%	5.19	5.18	-0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	60	0	63	266	43	31	8	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.7%	4.4%	3.0%	5.24	5.27	-0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	59	0	62	262	42	31	8	0%	1.1	15.9%	11.9%	3.9%	3.2%	5.33	5.40	-0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	56	0	59	249	39	30	8	0%	1.1	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	3.4%	5.48	5.58	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		368	0	386	1629	254	192	49	0%	1.0	15.6%	11.8%	3.8%	3.0%	5.32	4.94	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	132	100	25	0%	1.1	15.6%	11.8%	3.8%	3.0%	5.32	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		80	17	196	862	122	82	12	21%	2.5	14.2%	9.6%	4.6%	1.4%	4.95	3.86	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	17	200	878	124	84	12	21%	2.5	14.2%	9.6%	4.6%	1.4%	4.95	3.86	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Roman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.82	10.0%	12.6%	2.9%	—	5.31	14.7%	3.0%	222	-0.51	—	—	—
Edwin Escobar L 2015 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	9.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.268	4.28	13.7%	4.9%	122	-1.68	4.28	218	86
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	85
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	79
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	79
Justin Kelly L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	23	SU	4.96	13.4%	12.7%	2.5%	.421	3.71	19.4%	4.6%	123	-1.25	3.51	160	78
Nestor Bautista L 2016 · 5.98 FIP	24	SU	5.98	6.9%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	3.53	21.7%	17.6%	92	-2.45	1.76	108	77
Will Gilbert L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	12.4%	11.9%	2.1%	.339	3.64	19.2%	10.3%	122	-1.05	2.92	141	77
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	76
Helmis Rodriguez L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SW	4.92	11.0%	12.3%	2.2%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	336	75
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.06	18.5%	7.5%	165	-1.72	3.79	281	75
Randy Keisler L 2000 · 5.13 FIP	24	SW	5.13	11.5%	15.4%	1.9%	.405	6.43	15.3%	0.9%	51	+1.30	5.07	135	74
Juliandry Higuera L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	13.8%	14.1%	1.7%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	197	73
Jose Garcia L 2021 · 6.10 FIP	23	SU	6.10	10.2%	14.6%	3.7%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	149	73
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	73
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	73
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	72
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	72
James Ziemba L 2018 · 5.16 FIP	23	SU	5.16	11.7%	12.4%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	110	72
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	71
Mason Miller L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	12.4%	15.9%	1.3%	.387	4.54	18.4%	5.4%	148	-0.27	3.22	170	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	70	14.8%	11.9%	1.16	5.39
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Lance Cormier ('11)	2.3	67	13.0%	10.7%	1.25	5.07
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Paul Mirabella ('78-'90, -0 WAR*)	2.5	71	17.2%*	10.7%*	0.95*	4.64*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*