Luis Gastelum — OGILVIE

Luis Gastelum P Memphis Redbirds

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9284vR 76

ERA3.11

FIP3.11

K%27.1%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%20.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p9034.7%

p8729.0%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	26	121	26	4	3	0%	1.5	17.4%	4.8%	12.6%	1.8%	4.78	3.22	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	26	121	26	4	3	0%	1.5	17.4%	4.8%	12.6%	1.8%	4.78	3.22	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	26	121	26	4	3	0%	1.5	21.5%	3.3%	18.2%	2.5%	4.78	3.06	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	212	73	10	4	0%	1.6	25.5%	5.8%	19.7%	2.5%	2.65	3.04	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	212	73	10	4	0%	1.6	25.5%	5.8%	19.7%	2.5%	2.65	3.04	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	51	212	73	10	4	0%	1.6	34.4%	4.7%	29.7%	1.9%	2.65	1.85	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	63	260	92	17	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	7.2%	21.5%	1.3%	4.02	2.28	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	63	260	92	17	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	7.2%	21.5%	1.3%	4.02	2.28	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	63	260	92	17	3	0%	1.4	35.4%	6.5%	28.8%	1.2%	4.02	1.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			29	0	32	131	38	11	6	0%	1.1	29.0%	8.4%	20.6%	4.6%	4.50	4.19	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	65	0	76	306	87	28	8	0%	1.2	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	2.8%	3.21	3.57	+0.9
YTD	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	65	0	76	306	87	28	8	0%	1.2	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	2.8%	3.21	3.57	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	STL	36	0	44	175	49	17	2	0%	1.2	28.0%	9.7%	18.3%	1.1%	2.27	2.59	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	STL	29	0	32	131	38	11	6	0%	1.1	29.0%	8.4%	20.6%	4.6%	4.50	4.23	+0.1
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	STL	29	0	32	131	38	11	6	0%	1.1	29.0%	8.4%	20.6%	4.6%	4.50	4.23	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB MLE	STL	5	0	6	24	6	2	1	0%	1.1	27.1%	7.0%	20.1%	2.6%	3.11	3.11	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	STL	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	27.1%	7.0%	20.1%	2.4%	3.01	3.01	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	81	330	93	30	9	—	—	28.3%	9.0%	19.3%	2.6%	3.20	3.54	+1.2
FULL	24	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	38	159	93	30	9	—	—	58.8%	18.7%	40.1%	5.4%	6.90	3.46	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	71	0	75	317	89	22	9	0%	1.1	28.2%	7.0%	21.2%	3.0%	3.64	3.61	+0.9
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	71	0	75	317	89	23	9	0%	1.1	28.0%	7.1%	20.9%	3.0%	3.67	3.65	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	70	0	74	312	87	23	9	0%	1.1	27.8%	7.3%	20.5%	3.0%	3.71	3.72	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	68	0	72	303	83	23	9	0%	1.1	27.6%	7.5%	20.0%	3.1%	3.78	3.82	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	289	79	22	9	0%	1.1	27.3%	7.7%	19.6%	3.3%	3.88	3.95	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	61	0	64	272	73	22	9	0%	1.1	27.0%	8.0%	18.9%	3.5%	4.03	4.13	+0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	68	0	71	300	84	21	8	0%	1.0	28.2%	7.0%	21.2%	2.8%	3.53	3.50	+0.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	68	0	71	300	84	21	8	0%	1.0	28.0%	7.1%	20.9%	2.8%	3.56	3.54	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	67	0	70	296	82	22	8	0%	1.0	27.8%	7.3%	20.5%	2.8%	3.59	3.60	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	65	0	68	287	79	22	8	0%	1.0	27.6%	7.5%	20.0%	2.9%	3.66	3.70	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	62	0	65	274	75	21	8	0%	1.0	27.3%	7.7%	19.6%	3.0%	3.75	3.82	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	58	0	61	258	69	21	8	0%	1.1	27.0%	8.0%	18.9%	3.2%	3.90	4.00	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		422	0	445	1874	520	140	57	0%	1.1	27.7%	7.5%	20.2%	3.0%	3.71	3.36	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	843	234	63	26	0%	1.1	27.7%	7.5%	20.2%	3.0%	3.71	3.36	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		161	0	216	899	228	63	19	0%	1.3	25.4%	7.0%	18.4%	2.1%	3.51	3.02	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	0	200	834	212	59	18	0%	1.3	25.4%	7.0%	18.4%	2.1%	3.51	3.02	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Gastelum (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.33	28.0%	6.3%	2.6%	—	3.66	28.0%	20.8%	224	+0.33	—	—	—
Zack Weiss R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	23	SU	3.27	27.1%	7.0%	2.9%	.299	4.43	22.5%	8.0%	39	+1.16	3.05	368	90
Geoff Broussard R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	24	SU	3.25	30.8%	8.3%	3.1%	.286	4.90	17.2%	8.7%	107	+1.65	3.25	152	89
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	89
Miguel Sánchez R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	24	SU	3.46	29.4%	8.1%	3.3%	.295	4.02	20.5%	11.2%	111	+0.56	2.54	309	87
Mat Olsen R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	23	SU	3.24	26.8%	7.9%	2.6%	.360	3.58	16.1%	6.6%	47	+0.34	2.68	161	84
Connor Brogdon R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	29.7%	8.8%	3.5%	.236	3.37	23.6%	17.2%	102	-0.27	2.98	401	84
Dugan Darnell R 2021 · 2.50 FIP	24	SU	2.50	30.7%	7.3%	2.0%	.293	4.65	23.1%	11.9%	142	+2.15	2.50	238	84
Eli Villalobos R 2021 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	9.6%	3.3%	.337	4.88	22.7%	9.7%	153	+1.13	3.75	214	84
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	83
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	83
Franco Aleman R 2023 · 2.92 FIP	23	SU	2.92	28.4%	8.8%	2.0%	.315	2.96	29.2%	19.7%	114	+0.04	2.38	225	83
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	83
Addison Russ R 2019 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	27.7%	9.3%	2.1%	.321	4.58	24.3%	8.8%	44	+1.47	3.08	194	82
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	82
Hansel Robles R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	7.8%	3.7%	.221	4.18	24.0%	13.5%	214	+0.43	2.67	469	81
Ryan Dull R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	25	SU	3.07	25.5%	6.8%	2.3%	.242	3.97	25.2%	19.2%	170	+0.90	3.07	345	81
Kevin Ginkel R 2018 · 2.50 FIP	24	SU	2.50	30.0%	5.0%	2.4%	.277	4.05	30.3%	19.4%	102	+1.55	2.37	455	81
Mike Morin R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	24	SU	3.22	24.7%	5.7%	2.7%	.355	3.64	19.0%	13.4%	169	+0.42	3.03	302	81
Michael Tonkin R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	25	SU	3.09	23.8%	4.9%	2.5%	.240	3.77	27.2%	18.6%	134	+0.68	2.31	480	81
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	71	27.7%	7.3%	1.18	3.72
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12