Luis Gastelum
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9687vR 78
ERA3.35
FIP3.35
K%28.0%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%21.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 26 | 121 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.4% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 1.8% | 4.78 | 3.22 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 26 | 121 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.5% | 3.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 3.06 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 51 | 212 | 73 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.5% | 5.8% | 19.7% | 2.4% | 2.65 | 2.99 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 51 | 212 | 73 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 34.4% | 4.7% | 29.7% | 1.9% | 2.65 | 1.85 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 46 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.7% | 7.2% | 21.5% | 1.1% | 4.02 | 2.22 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 46 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.4% | 6.5% | 28.8% | 1.2% | 4.02 | 1.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 39 | 0 | 46 | 188 | 52 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 1.3% | 2.53 | 3.00 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 61 | 0 | 65 | 272 | 76 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 6.6% | 21.3% | 2.5% | 3.35 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 77 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 6.6% | 21.3% | 2.5% | 3.35 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 111 | 460 | 128 | 35 | 11 | — | — | 27.8% | 7.6% | 20.2% | 2.4% | 3.01 | 3.20 | +2.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 67 | 284 | 128 | 35 | 11 | — | — | 45.2% | 12.4% | 32.8% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 2.95 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 80 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 6.8% | 21.1% | 2.6% | 3.41 | 3.39 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 80 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 6.9% | 20.9% | 2.6% | 3.45 | 3.43 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 77 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 6.8% | 21.1% | 2.6% | 3.41 | 3.39 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 76 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 6.9% | 20.9% | 2.6% | 3.45 | 3.43 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 188 | 0 | 196 | 831 | 231 | 55 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 6.7% | 21.1% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 3.11 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 235 | 56 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 6.7% | 21.1% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 3.11 | +5.4 | ||
| Career | — | 135 | 0 | 186 | 781 | 196 | 56 | 13 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 17.9% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 2.77 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 0 | 200 | 838 | 210 | 60 | 14 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 17.9% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 2.77 | +6.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Gastelum (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.35 | 28.0% | 6.6% | 2.5% | — | 3.41 | 27.8% | 21.0% | 136 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Zack Weiss R 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.21 | 27.1% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .299 | 4.32 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 39 | +1.11 | 2.88 | 368 | 90 |
| Jake Smith R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.07 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.73 | 19.3% | -1.7% | 26 | +1.66 | 3.07 | 110 | 89 |
| Geoff Broussard R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 30.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.78 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 107 | +1.30 | 3.48 | 152 | 86 |
| Miguel Sánchez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.40 | 29.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.12 | 20.5% | 11.2% | 111 | +0.72 | 2.54 | 309 | 86 |
| Josh Martin R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 84 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 2.35 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.35 | 30.7% | 7.3% | 1.7% | .293 | 4.61 | 23.7% | 11.9% | 142 | +2.26 | 2.35 | 238 | 84 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.60 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.17 | 2.03 | 164 | 83 |
| Ryan Dull R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.09 | 25.5% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .242 | 3.89 | 25.2% | 19.2% | 170 | +0.80 | 3.09 | 345 | 83 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 83 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.43 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 50 | -0.34 | 2.79 | 164 | 82 |
| Pedro Araújo R 2026 · 2.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.77 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .252 | 6.11 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 68 | +3.34 | 2.77 | 185 | 82 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.11 | 23.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | .240 | 3.77 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 134 | +0.66 | 2.33 | 480 | 82 |
| Kevin Ginkel R 2026 · 2.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.53 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% | .277 | 3.90 | 30.3% | 19.4% | 102 | +1.37 | 2.35 | 431 | 82 |
| Eli Villalobos R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.79 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .337 | 5.01 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 153 | +1.22 | 3.79 | 214 | 82 |
| Mike Morin R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.27 | 24.7% | 5.7% | 2.8% | .355 | 3.69 | 19.0% | 13.4% | 169 | +0.42 | 3.11 | 302 | 82 |
| Travis Hissong R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.11 | 23.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.94 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 50 | +0.83 | 3.11 | 122 | 82 |
| Drew Storen R 2029 · 2.36 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.36 | 29.4% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .287 | 3.81 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 106 | +1.45 | 2.36 | 172 | 82 |
| Jonathan Holder R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.09 | 24.3% | 6.4% | 2.2% | .340 | 3.36 | 22.1% | 15.8% | 141 | +0.27 | 1.41 | 446 | 82 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.96 | 27.7% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .321 | 4.46 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 44 | +1.50 | 2.96 | 194 | 82 |
| Connor Brogdon R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 29.7% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .236 | 3.42 | 23.6% | 17.2% | 102 | -0.31 | 3.01 | 401 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 27.9% | 6.8% | 0.99 | 3.40 |
| Seunghwan Oh ('18) | 3 | 69 | 27.7% | 5.9% | 1.00 | 2.78 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Richard Rodríguez ('21) | 4 | 56 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 3.00 |
| Addison Reed ('18) | 4 | 66 | 24.0% | 5.7% | 0.98 | 3.05 |