Luis Gastelum
P
Memphis Redbirds
+0.8
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.74
FIP3.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%25.7%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%17.6%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 18 | 0 | 26 | 121 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 17.4% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 4.78 | 3.22 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 32 | 0 | 51 | 212 | 73 | 10 | 4 | 25.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 2.65 | 2.99 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 46 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 28.7% | 7.2% | 1.2% | 4.02 | 2.27 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 6 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 58 | 18 | 6 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 3.74 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 64 | 269 | 67 | 24 | 7 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.15 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.76 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 59 | 19 | 6 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 56 | 18 | 6 | 25.5% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 54 | 18 | 6 | 25.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 25.1% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | STL | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | STL | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | STL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 0 | 150 | 635 | 159 | 43 | 11 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 3.60 | 2.83 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 212 | 57 | 15 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 3.60 | 2.83 | +5.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Gastelum (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.74 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 2.5% | — | 3.77 | 25.8% | 17.7% | 163 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 92 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 92 |
| Josh Martin R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 90 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .315 | 3.77 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 32 | +0.09 | 3.68 | 147 | 90 |
| Zack Weiss R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.28 | 27.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .299 | 4.49 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 39 | +1.21 | 3.13 | 368 | 89 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.79 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.94 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 55 | +0.15 | 3.78 | 178 | 89 |
| Luke Murphy R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.55 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .317 | 5.29 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 45 | +1.74 | 3.14 | 192 | 89 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 89 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.84 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .344 | 4.99 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.15 | 3.63 | 386 | 88 |
| Trent Harris R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.46 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 57 | +0.29 | 3.46 | 134 | 88 |
| Nick Merkel R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 87 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.16 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.57 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.41 | 3.16 | 153 | 87 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 87 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.10 | 27.7% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .321 | 4.57 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 44 | +1.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 86 |
| Casey Cobb R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 86 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.80 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 2.90 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 2.90 | 144 | 86 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 86 |
| Chandler Shepherd R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.04 | 23.8% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.44 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 251 | +1.40 | 3.04 | 546 | 85 |
| Silvino Bracho R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.94 | 20.9% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .316 | 3.72 | 29.0% | 20.6% | 121 | -0.22 | 2.48 | 395 | 85 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $8M | $17M | +$9M | ||