Jose Cabrera
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%16.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%6.9%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p1420.2%
K%
p1014.8%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.57 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.60 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 63 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.86 | 5.22 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 63 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.1% | 5.7% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 3.88 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 107 | 501 | 96 | 56 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.4% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 5.28 | 5.41 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 107 | 501 | 96 | 56 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 5.28 | 4.45 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 11 | 11 | 66 | 260 | 62 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 2.32 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 11 | 11 | 66 | 260 | 62 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 6.9% | 16.9% | 1.9% | 2.32 | 3.02 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 26 | 135 | 596 | 118 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.0% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 4.92 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 26 | 135 | 596 | 118 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 16 | 16 | 79 | 320 | 76 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.12 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 38 | 162 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 27 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 117 | 482 | 103 | 39 | 15 | — | — | 21.4% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 56 | 237 | 103 | 39 | 16 | — | — | 43.5% | 16.4% | 27.1% | 6.6% | 8.84 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 59 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 62 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.72 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 83 | 351 | 62 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.73 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 80 | 338 | 56 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 59 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 59 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 52 | 295 | 1254 | 213 | 118 | 36 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.45 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 849 | 144 | 80 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 91 | 463 | 1999 | 327 | 188 | 63 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.3% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.65 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 863 | 141 | 81 | 27 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.3% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.65 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Cabrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 15.3% | 10.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.75 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 252 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 89 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 87 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 4.72 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 76 | -0.18 | 4.72 | 146 | 87 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 87 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 86 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.59 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .299 | 4.48 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.11 | 3.53 | 383 | 85 |
| Evan Yates R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 85 |
| Jordan Pries R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .307 | 4.55 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.40 | 4.15 | 219 | 84 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | .297 | 5.50 | 17.7% | 5.1% | 146 | +0.63 | 4.87 | 274 | 84 |
| Parker Smith R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 84 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.38 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .293 | 3.88 | 12.9% | 5.1% | 252 | -0.50 | 3.51 | 334 | 83 |
| Brooks Pounders R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.63 | 13.1% | 10.6% | 2.4% | .250 | 3.94 | 22.6% | 14.4% | 201 | -0.69 | 3.15 | 307 | 83 |
| Colin Welmon R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.69 | 12.0% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 142 | 82 |
| Mason Erla R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.99 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 124 | +1.04 | 3.12 | 206 | 82 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 82 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.52 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.14 | 4.27 | 279 | 82 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 82 |
| Patrick McGuff R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 12.0% | 10.4% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 133 | 82 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 82 |
| Tim Atherton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 77 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 1.07 | 4.79 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Sal Romano ('21) | 3 | 86 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.29 | 5.10 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Luis Perdomo ('22) | 5 | 90 | 16.6% | 7.8% | 1.08 | 5.09 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |