Jose Cabrera

P Reno Aces

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+ARI	11	11	66	2.32	3.02	23.8%	6.9%	—	K 18.4% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.07
2025	23	AAARI	26	26	135	4.92	4.00	19.8%	8.4%	—	K 16.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.24
2026	24	MIX3 levels	28	24	126	5.30	4.04	22.9%	7.3%	2.0	K 19.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.52
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	11	11	62	4.71	4.90	18.2%	8.4%	0.4
2028PROJ83% MLB	26	MLBARI	14	14	87	4.63	4.69	19.1%	8.3%	0.6
2029PROJ87% MLB	27	MLBARI	14	14	86	4.64	4.68	19.3%	8.3%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.192First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo43

xwOBA vs20

K%10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 5.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsHiram Burgos (age 25) · Stephen Fife (age 25) · Ramon Ramirez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.71

FIP4.90

K%18.2%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.192 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.57	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.60	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	74	314	63	18	10	100%	5.3	14.2%	6.9%	7.3%	4.4%	4.86	5.18	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	74	314	63	18	10	100%	5.3	20.1%	5.7%	14.3%	3.2%	4.86	3.88	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	501	96	56	13	100%	4.7	14.4%	13.0%	1.3%	3.4%	5.28	5.39	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	107	501	96	56	13	100%	4.7	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	2.6%	5.28	4.45	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	2.7%	2.32	4.07	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	2.7%	2.32	4.07	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	23.8%	6.9%	16.9%	1.9%	2.32	3.02	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	16.0%	9.2%	6.8%	2.4%	4.92	4.24	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	16.0%	9.2%	6.8%	2.4%	4.92	4.24	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	19.8%	8.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.92	4.00	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	126	537	123	39	19	86%	4.5	19.8%	7.2%	12.6%	4.0%	5.30	4.52	+1.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	126	537	123	39	19	86%	4.5	19.8%	7.2%	12.6%	4.0%	5.30	4.52	+1.3
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	24	126	537	123	39	19	86%	4.5	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	3.5%	5.30	4.04	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	5	28	129	20	11	6	62%	3.5	15.5%	8.5%	7.0%	4.7%	5.72	5.61	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	11	11	62	262	48	22	9	100%	5.6	18.2%	8.4%	9.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.90	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	105	445	85	37	15	100%	5.8	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	3.4%	4.73	4.79	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	98	415	80	35	14	100%	6.1	19.3%	8.3%	11.0%	3.4%	4.74	4.78	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	94	397	77	34	14	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.84	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	86	364	68	32	13	100%	6.2	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	3.6%	4.90	4.99	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	77	326	59	29	12	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.8%	5.08	5.19	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	87	367	70	31	12	100%	6.2	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	3.2%	4.63	4.69	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	86	363	70	30	12	100%	6.1	19.3%	8.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.68	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	85	359	69	30	12	100%	6.1	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	3.3%	4.68	4.73	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	79	334	63	29	11	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.79	4.88	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	72	304	55	27	11	100%	6.0	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.6%	4.96	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	73	437	1853	347	158	64	96%	5.7	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.49	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	849	159	72	29	96%	5.7	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.49	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		103	99	510	2216	368	202	74	96%	5.0	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	3.3%	4.74	4.68	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	868	144	79	29	96%	5.0	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	3.3%	4.74	4.68	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 52 IPFIP 3.47 → 3.79 (+0.32)K% 22.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.860	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.17%	—	×0.900	6.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.78%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 45 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.73 (+0.99)K% 28.7% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.65%	—	×0.810	23.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.43%	—	×1.100	7.08%
HR / BF /BF	4.09%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.91%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 135 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.24 (+0.28)K% 19.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.80%	—	×0.810	16.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.39%	—	×1.100	9.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷1.333	×1.200	2.42%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 66 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.07 (+1.05)K% 23.8% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.85%	—	×0.770	18.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.150	7.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.875	×1.250	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 70 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.49 (+1.18)K% 20.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.74%	—	×0.740	15.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.91%	—	×1.180	11.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷1.003	×1.300	4.01%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 37 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.22 (+0.86)K% 16.3% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.29%	—	×0.770	12.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.48%	—	×1.150	15.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.952	×1.250	2.21%

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 37 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.57 (+0.84)K% 18.0% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.96%	—	×0.740	13.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.59%	—	×1.180	7.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.062	×1.300	2.93%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Black · 37 IPFIP 4.05 → 5.87 (+1.82)K% 22.4% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.45%	—	×0.680	15.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷0.948	×1.400	6.02%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.80	19.3%	10.9%	298	-0.10	—	—	—
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	83
Stephen Fife R 2012 · 3.87 FIP	25	SP	3.87	17.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.284	3.94	17.4%	10.4%	58	+0.07	3.11	264	82
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	80
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	80
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	80
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	79
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	79
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	79
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	78
Drew McDaniel R 2024 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	19.4%	8.4%	3.1%	.307	5.65	18.3%	7.2%	91	+1.41	4.24	230	78
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	78
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	78
Brian Stokes R 2006 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP-	3.98	13.6%	8.2%	1.8%	.345	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	166	+0.53	3.96	207	77
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	76
Mike MacDougal R 2001 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	10.4%	6.0%	3.0%	.296	3.79	20.5%	8.7%	75	-0.82	2.68	379	75
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	75
Connor Seabold R 2021 · 3.72 FIP	25	SP	3.72	20.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.247	4.04	19.3%	13.2%	224	+0.32	3.13	542	75
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	75
Rodrigo Lopez R 2000 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP	5.56	14.2%	10.8%	4.2%	.412	4.29	16.2%	9.7%	344	-1.27	4.06	1,344	74
Spencer Jones R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	24	SP	5.49	14.9%	8.9%	4.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	171	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	82	18.7%	8.5%	1.39	4.86
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.2	77	18.0%	8.1%	1.48	4.96
Mike Gardiner ('90-'95, -1 WAR*)	2.0	98	18.3%*	8.8%*	1.37*	5.10*
Claudio Vargas ('10)	3.8	109	16.2%	8.7%	1.49	4.83
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Bob Stoddard ('81-'87, 3 WAR*)	2.2	72	17.9%*	8.7%*	1.46*	4.11*