Jose Cabrera
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
+0.7
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.4 · 2028
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%9.2%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 63 | 18 | 10 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.86 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 23 | 23 | 107 | 501 | 96 | 56 | 13 | 14.4% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 5.28 | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 11 | 11 | 66 | 260 | 62 | 18 | 5 | 18.4% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 2.32 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 26 | 135 | 596 | 118 | 50 | 16 | 16.0% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.92 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 2 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 10 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 93 | 47 | 14 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 127 | 530 | 103 | 47 | 15 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 110 | 50 | 16 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 140 | 589 | 119 | 52 | 16 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 143 | 602 | 122 | 53 | 17 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 142 | 602 | 122 | 53 | 17 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 139 | 588 | 119 | 52 | 17 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 135 | 570 | 114 | 51 | 17 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.54 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 130 | 551 | 109 | 50 | 17 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 103 | 49 | 16 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 97 | 47 | 16 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 90 | 46 | 16 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 83 | 44 | 15 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 76 | 42 | 15 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.09 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 77 | 393 | 1706 | 272 | 164 | 54 | 15.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.70 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 869 | 139 | 84 | 28 | 15.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Cabrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.43 | 20.0% | 11.2% | 415 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 93 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 92 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 91 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 90 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 90 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 90 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 89 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 89 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 89 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 89 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 89 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .263 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.05 | 4.35 | 269 | 89 |
| Tim Atherton R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 88 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 88 |
| Kevin McAvoy R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .303 | 5.05 | 15.2% | -2.0% | 91 | +0.98 | 4.07 | 466 | 88 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .248 | 5.40 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 123 | +1.09 | 4.31 | 232 | 88 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 88 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.67 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.05 | 4.17 | 347 | 88 |
| Corey Baker R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| Totals | $9M | $62M | +$53M | ||