Jose Cabrera — OGILVIE

Jose Cabrera P Reno Aces

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION118 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%16.7%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p1019.4%

p1015.1%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.57	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.60	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	74	314	63	18	10	100%	5.3	14.2%	6.9%	7.3%	4.4%	4.86	5.18	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	74	314	63	18	10	100%	5.3	20.1%	5.7%	14.3%	3.2%	4.86	3.88	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	501	96	56	13	100%	4.7	14.4%	13.0%	1.3%	3.4%	5.28	5.39	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	501	96	56	13	100%	4.7	14.4%	13.0%	1.3%	3.4%	5.28	5.39	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	107	501	96	56	13	100%	4.7	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	2.6%	5.28	4.45	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	2.7%	2.32	4.07	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	2.7%	2.32	4.07	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	23.8%	6.9%	16.9%	1.9%	2.32	3.02	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	16.0%	9.2%	6.8%	2.4%	4.92	4.24	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	16.0%	9.2%	6.8%	2.4%	4.92	4.24	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	19.8%	8.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.92	4.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	5	27	119	18	10	4	71%	3.9	15.1%	8.4%	6.7%	3.4%	4.33	4.80	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	23	118	505	114	38	17	88%	4.6	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	3.8%	5.25	4.51	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	23	118	505	114	38	17	88%	4.6	19.1%	7.4%	11.7%	3.8%	5.25	4.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	ARI	9	9	45	171	49	11	7	100%	5.0	28.7%	6.4%	22.2%	4.1%	3.60	3.74	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	ARI	10	9	46	215	47	17	6	90%	4.6	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.8%	7.38	3.79	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	ARI	7	5	27	119	18	10	4	71%	3.9	15.1%	8.4%	6.7%	3.4%	4.33	4.73	+0.1
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	ARI	7	5	27	119	18	10	4	71%	3.9	15.1%	8.4%	6.7%	3.4%	4.33	4.73	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	7	30	5	3	1	100%	7.0	16.7%	9.5%	7.1%	2.8%	4.44	4.44	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	7	30	5	3	1	100%	7.0	16.7%	9.5%	7.1%	2.7%	4.36	4.36	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	125	535	119	41	18	—	—	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	3.3%	5.20	4.51	+0.6
FULL	24	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	34	144	119	41	18	—	—	82.8%	28.4%	54.4%	12.4%	19.15	6.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	123	521	87	49	15	100%	5.9	16.6%	9.4%	7.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.84	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	123	521	91	48	15	100%	5.9	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	2.9%	4.79	4.76	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	122	513	90	47	15	100%	6.1	17.6%	9.2%	8.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	118	498	88	46	15	100%	5.9	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	3.0%	4.81	4.84	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	113	475	83	45	15	100%	5.9	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	3.2%	4.91	4.98	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	106	447	76	44	15	100%	5.9	17.0%	9.9%	7.2%	3.4%	5.06	5.15	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	117	494	82	46	13	100%	5.8	16.6%	9.4%	7.2%	2.7%	4.79	4.75	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	117	494	86	46	13	100%	5.8	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	2.7%	4.70	4.67	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	115	486	86	45	13	100%	6.1	17.6%	9.2%	8.4%	2.8%	4.68	4.68	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	112	473	83	44	14	100%	5.9	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	2.9%	4.72	4.75	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	107	452	78	43	14	100%	5.9	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	3.0%	4.81	4.88	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	101	426	73	42	14	100%	5.9	17.0%	9.9%	7.2%	3.2%	4.96	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	118	703	2974	511	279	86	98%	5.9	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.43	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	145	79	24	98%	5.8	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		101	98	503	2184	359	201	71	97%	5.0	16.4%	9.2%	7.2%	3.3%	4.72	4.68	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	868	143	80	28	97%	5.0	16.4%	9.2%	7.2%	3.3%	4.72	4.68	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	15.2%	10.2%	2.8%	—	4.79	17.2%	7.9%	368	-0.21	—	—	—
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	92
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	91
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	88
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	87
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	87
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	87
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	87
Erich Uelmen R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.3%	10.7%	2.7%	.299	4.57	19.8%	8.8%	159	-0.07	3.48	383	87
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	87
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	86
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	86
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	86
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	85
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	85
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	85
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	84
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	84
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	112	17.1%	9.5%	1.17	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10