Connor Seabold

P Kansas City Royals

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	35	21	119	7.51	4.66	18.5%	6.3%	1.0	K 17.6% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.36
2025	29	MIX2 levels	29	10	80	5.85	5.16	20.7%	9.8%	-0.6	K 17.8% · BB 8.4% · FIP 5.71
2026	30	MIX3 levels	27	0	30	4.20	3.67	19.3%	10.7%	0.3	K 17.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.87
2027PROJ	31	MLBKC	8	8	51	4.74	5.05	17.2%	9.3%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBKC	4	4	24	5.08	5.31	16.4%	9.8%	0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBKC	2	2	12	5.39	5.59	15.5%	10.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs54

FB Velo37

K%19

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Juan Omar Espinoza (age 31) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.74

FIP5.05

K%17.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	130	537	132	32	16	100%	5.7	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.28	4.00	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	130	537	132	32	16	100%	5.7	24.6%	6.0%	18.6%	3.0%	4.28	3.41	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	56	222	58	11	3	92%	4.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	1.3%	2.24	3.13	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	56	222	58	11	3	92%	4.7	26.1%	5.0%	21.2%	1.4%	2.24	2.32	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	63	265	64	24	7	100%	4.5	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	2.2%	3.59	3.72	+1.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	63	265	64	24	7	100%	4.5	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.6%	3.59	3.66	+1.3
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	105	458	108	27	12	100%	4.4	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.71	3.68	+2.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	105	458	108	27	12	100%	4.4	23.6%	5.9%	17.7%	2.6%	4.71	3.30	+2.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	21	119	557	103	35	22	60%	3.4	17.6%	6.1%	11.4%	3.6%	7.51	4.36	+1.5
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	21	119	557	103	35	22	60%	3.4	18.5%	6.3%	12.2%	3.9%	7.51	4.66	+1.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	5.6%	5.85	5.71	-1.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	5.6%	5.85	5.71	-1.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	4.5%	5.85	5.16	-0.6
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	30	140	27	15	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.9%	4.20	3.87	+0.2
2026	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	30	140	27	15	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.9%	4.20	3.87	+0.2
2026	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	30	140	27	15	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	1.4%	4.20	3.67	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			61	19	143	681	116	54	28	31%	2.3	17.0%	7.9%	9.1%	4.1%	7.36	5.16	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	KC	8	8	51	215	37	20	7	100%	6.4	17.2%	9.3%	7.8%	3.4%	4.74	5.05	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	4	4	25	106	17	10	4	100%	6.3	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	3.6%	5.08	5.31	+0.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	13	54	8	6	2	100%	6.4	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	3.9%	5.39	5.59	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	24	101	17	10	4	100%	6.0	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	3.6%	5.08	5.31	+0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	KC	2	2	12	51	8	5	2	100%	6.0	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	3.9%	5.39	5.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	25	179	833	141	69	34	37%	2.7	16.9%	8.3%	8.6%	4.0%	6.92	4.94	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		75	28	200	931	157	77	38	37%	2.7	16.9%	8.3%	8.6%	4.0%	6.92	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		164	103	583	2536	482	180	81	63%	3.6	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.2%	4.96	4.15	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	870	165	62	28	63%	3.6	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.2%	4.96	4.15	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 5 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.54 (+0.04)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×0.900	17.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 70 IPFIP 5.20 → 5.71 (+0.51)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.71%	—	×0.860	17.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.39%	—	×0.900	8.45%
HR / BF /BF	4.85%	÷0.961	×1.100	5.55%

Result: FIP 5.20 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 31 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.10 (+0.26)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.16%	—	×0.860	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.37%	—	×0.900	4.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷1.062	×1.100	2.09%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 87 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.21 (+0.47)K% 24.7% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.72%	—	×0.880	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.28%	—	×1.050	5.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷0.939	×1.100	2.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 54 IPFIP 3.68 → 3.72 (+0.05)K% 22.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.91%	—	×0.880	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.37%	—	×1.050	8.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷1.318	×1.100	2.21%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Red Sox · 6 IPFIP 0.66 → 2.28 (+1.61)K% 46.2% → 31.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.15%	—	×0.680	31.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.250	14.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.951	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.66 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 40 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.13 (+0.46)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.810	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.33%	—	×1.100	6.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.182	×1.200	1.28%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Clearwater Threshers · 9 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.78 (+1.21)K% 31.2% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.770	24.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×1.150	3.59%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.949	×1.250	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Seabold (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	17.2%	9.3%	3.4%	—	5.40	16.1%	6.2%	38	+0.35	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	75
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	68
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	68
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	66
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	65
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	64
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	64
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	64
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	64
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	63
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	62
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	62
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	62
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	62
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	62
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	62
Paolo Espino R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	31	SW	4.51	18.7%	9.6%	3.2%	.348	4.42	20.4%	14.7%	202	-0.09	3.42	933	61
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	61
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	16.9%	8.6%	1.51	6.42
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Collin Balester ('15)	1.0	50	17.4%	10.1%	1.75	5.47
Doug Linton ('03)	1.5	51	14.9%	9.0%	1.47	5.78
Rich Hinton ('71-'79, -2 WAR*)	1.2	50	21.3%*	8.0%*	1.15*	5.41*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*