Connor Seabold — OGILVIE

Connor Seabold P Kansas City Royals

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.98

FIP4.90

K%17.0%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

FB (53%)

SL (16%)

CT-0.7 (10%)

CH-0.9 (21%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	130	537	132	32	16	100%	5.7	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.28	4.00	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	130	537	132	32	16	100%	5.7	24.6%	6.0%	18.6%	3.0%	4.28	3.41	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	56	222	58	11	3	92%	4.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	1.3%	2.24	3.13	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	56	222	58	11	3	92%	4.7	26.1%	5.0%	21.2%	1.4%	2.24	2.32	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	63	265	64	24	7	100%	4.5	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	2.2%	3.59	3.72	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	63	265	64	24	7	100%	4.5	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.6%	3.59	3.66	+0.9
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	105	458	108	27	12	100%	4.4	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.71	3.68	+1.5
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	105	458	108	27	12	100%	4.4	23.6%	5.9%	17.7%	2.6%	4.71	3.30	+2.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	21	119	557	103	35	22	60%	3.4	17.4%	6.1%	11.3%	3.6%	7.51	4.38	+0.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	21	119	557	103	35	22	60%	3.4	17.4%	6.1%	11.3%	3.6%	7.51	4.38	+0.7
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	21	119	557	103	35	22	60%	3.4	18.5%	6.3%	12.2%	3.9%	7.51	4.66	+0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	17.2%	8.4%	8.7%	5.6%	5.85	5.77	-1.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	17.2%	8.4%	8.7%	5.6%	5.85	5.77	-1.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	10	80	357	74	35	16	34%	2.8	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	4.5%	5.85	5.16	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			61	19	143	681	116	54	28	31%	2.3	17.0%	7.9%	9.1%	4.1%	7.36	5.16	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	24	0	27	128	23	13	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.9%	4.67	3.87	+0.2
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	24	0	27	128	23	13	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.9%	4.67	3.87	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	A RAW	KC	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	KC	2	0	2	9	1	2	0	0%	1.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	0.00	4.98	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	KC	21	0	24	115	20	11	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.7%	5.25	3.80	+0.2
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	KC	21	0	24	115	20	11	2	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	1.7%	5.25	3.80	+0.2
ROS	30	MLB MLE	KC	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	8.5%	8.4%	3.9%	4.98	4.90	-0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	8.5%	8.4%	3.9%	4.98	4.90	-0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	33	153	27	15	3	—	—	17.8%	9.9%	7.9%	1.9%	4.72	4.06	+0.2
FULL	30	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	30	126	27	15	3	—	—	21.6%	12.0%	9.6%	2.4%	5.20	4.09	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	79	334	61	27	13	100%	6.1	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.8%	5.12	5.07	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	73	309	54	26	13	100%	6.1	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	4.1%	5.24	5.32	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	75	317	58	26	12	100%	6.2	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.8%	5.12	5.07	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	69	291	51	25	12	100%	6.3	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	4.1%	5.24	5.32	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	42	293	1316	229	107	53	47%	3.3	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	4.0%	6.24	4.87	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		61	29	200	897	156	73	36	47%	3.3	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	4.0%	6.24	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		161	103	580	2524	476	179	81	64%	3.6	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.98	4.16	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	36	200	870	164	62	28	64%	3.6	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.98	4.16	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Seabold (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	16.8%	8.2%	4.0%	—	5.19	17.8%	9.5%	152	-0.13	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	69
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	66
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	66
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	66
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	65
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	65
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	64
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	64
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	64
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	63
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	63
Tyler Cloyd R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP-	4.51	16.0%	6.8%	3.5%	.293	4.99	17.2%	9.8%	170	+0.48	3.89	250	62
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	62
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	62
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	61
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	61
A.J. Morris R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	16.9%	6.9%	3.7%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	123	61
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	60
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	60
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	77	17.5%	8.3%	1.54	5.25
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50