Connor Seabold
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
MLB
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 19 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.65
FIP4.61
K%17.8%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%8.9%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p1917.7%
xwOBA vs
p540.308
FB (53%)
SL (16%)
CT-0.7 (10%)
CH-0.9 (21%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 130 | 537 | 132 | 32 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.78 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 130 | 537 | 132 | 32 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 6.0% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 3.41 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 11 | 56 | 222 | 58 | 11 | 3 | 92% | 4.7 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 1.1% | 2.24 | 3.03 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 11 | 56 | 222 | 58 | 11 | 3 | 92% | 4.7 | 26.1% | 5.0% | 21.2% | 1.4% | 2.24 | 2.32 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 14 | 63 | 265 | 64 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 1.8% | 3.59 | 3.49 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 14 | 63 | 265 | 64 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 4.5 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 3.66 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 105 | 458 | 108 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 4.4 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 3.72 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 105 | 458 | 108 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 4.4 | 23.6% | 5.9% | 17.7% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 3.30 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 21 | 119 | 557 | 103 | 35 | 22 | 60% | 3.4 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 7.51 | 4.13 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 21 | 119 | 557 | 103 | 35 | 22 | 60% | 3.4 | 18.5% | 6.3% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 7.51 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 10 | 80 | 357 | 74 | 35 | 16 | 34% | 2.8 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.85 | 5.98 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 10 | 80 | 357 | 74 | 35 | 16 | 34% | 2.8 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 5.85 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 50 | 0 | 61 | 279 | 51 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 4.30 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 18 | 0 | 19 | 81 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 80 | 360 | 65 | 31 | 9 | — | — | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.04 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 78 | 328 | 65 | 31 | 9 | — | — | 19.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.09 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 63 | 28 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 70 | 0 | 73 | 309 | 56 | 27 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 71 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 60 | 27 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 53 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 244 | 19 | 341 | 1528 | 273 | 126 | 58 | 8% | 1.4 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.87 | 4.70 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 11 | 200 | 895 | 160 | 74 | 34 | 8% | 1.4 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.87 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 187 | 103 | 614 | 2675 | 510 | 197 | 80 | 55% | 3.3 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.06 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 34 | 200 | 872 | 166 | 64 | 26 | 55% | 3.3 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Seabold (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 4.0% | — | 5.05 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 152 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 70 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.21 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .301 | 3.27 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.94 | 3.27 | 171 | 69 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 68 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 68 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 67 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 67 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 67 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.28 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.78 | 7.1% | -0.6% | 83 | -0.50 | 4.78 | 115 | 67 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 66 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 65 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.48 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .335 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 43 | -0.06 | 4.23 | 241 | 64 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 64 |
| Paul Clemens R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 64 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 63 |
| A.J. Morris R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.92 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 123 | 63 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 63 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 62 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 62 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 62 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.33 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 254 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 77 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 1.49 | 5.16 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |