Connor Seabold
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
MLB
ERA6.12
FIP5.19
xFIP4.02
SIERA3.26
K%19.6%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.6%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4045
FB (53%)
SL (14%)
CT-0.7 (6%)
CH-0.9 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 23 | 23 | 130 | 537 | 132 | 32 | 16 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.03 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 12 | 11 | 56 | 222 | 58 | 11 | 3 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 2.24 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 14 | 14 | 63 | 265 | 64 | 24 | 7 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 3.78 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 24 | 24 | 105 | 458 | 108 | 27 | 12 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 3.64 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 35 | 21 | 119 | 557 | 103 | 35 | 22 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 7.51 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 10 | 80 | 357 | 74 | 35 | 16 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 5.85 | 5.87 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 5 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 9 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.08 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | DET | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 6.29 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | DET | — | — | 42 | 177 | 35 | 16 | 8 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 5.43 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 64 | 32 | 15 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 5.75 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 66 | 29 | 14 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 5.46 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 61 | 28 | 14 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 5.42 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 56 | 27 | 14 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 5.49 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 50 | 26 | 13 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 5.61 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 45 | 25 | 13 | 17.0% | 9.5% | 4.7% | 5.75 | 5.85 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 142 | 103 | 562 | 2431 | 469 | 176 | 82 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.24 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 37 | 200 | 866 | 167 | 63 | 29 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Seabold (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 4.1% | — | 5.36 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 235 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 79 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 78 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 77 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 75 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.13 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .278 | 5.98 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +0.85 | 5.13 | 194 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 74 |
| Adrian Garza R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .351 | 5.10 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 229 | 73 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 73 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 73 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2027 · 5.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.49 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | .261 | 4.63 | 7.1% | -0.6% | 83 | -0.86 | 4.63 | 115 | 72 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.81 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.04 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -0.77 | 3.17 | 273 | 72 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 72 |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.50 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.37 | 11.6% | 2.4% | 107 | -0.13 | 4.13 | 156 | 71 |
| Tyson Perez R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.66 | 14.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 121 | 70 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2024 · 5.78 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.78 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 167 | 69 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2028 · 4.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.99 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | .244 | 4.90 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.09 | 4.78 | 160 | 69 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 69 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.34 | 17.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | .219 | 4.14 | 22.5% | 12.3% | 121 | -1.20 | 2.30 | 511 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.