Joe Kemlage prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Joe Kemlage P Aberdeen IronBirds

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 220 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%21.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	5	0	6	30	9	0	0	0%	1.3	30.0%	0.0%	30.0%	0.0%	1.42	0.57	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	5	0	6	30	9	0	0	0%	1.3	30.0%	0.0%	30.0%	0.0%	1.42	0.26	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	7	63	271	73	31	5	44%	4.0	19.4%	13.5%	5.8%	2.3%	3.41	4.42	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	7	63	271	73	31	5	44%	4.0	26.9%	11.4%	15.5%	1.8%	3.41	3.29	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	65	296	68	30	9	0%	1.8	17.6%	11.7%	5.9%	4.1%	5.85	5.35	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	65	296	68	30	9	0%	1.8	17.6%	11.7%	5.9%	4.1%	5.85	5.35	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	65	296	68	30	9	0%	1.8	23.0%	10.1%	12.8%	3.0%	5.85	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BAL	42	0	44	185	40	19	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.72	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	BAL	15	0	16	68	15	7	2	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	15	7	2	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	87	25	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		57	7	134	597	114	71	18	12%	2.4	19.0%	12.0%	7.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	10	200	889	169	106	27	12%	2.4	19.0%	12.0%	7.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.69	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Kemlage (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.4%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.72	21.5%	11.0%	44	+0.05	—	—	—
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	83
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	83
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	81
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	81
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	78
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	77
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	77
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	76
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	76
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	76
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	76
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	75
Mac Lardner L 2023 · 3.66 FIP	25	SU	3.66	17.5%	9.4%	1.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	186	74
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	74
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	74
Josh D. Smith L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	20.5%	12.6%	2.0%	.306	3.38	23.1%	12.3%	164	-0.67	3.17	335	74
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	74
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	74
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	73
Everett Teaford L 2011 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	16.0%	8.0%	4.9%	.224	5.47	13.3%	5.3%	61	+0.00	4.42	208	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	45	21.4%	10.5%	1.20	4.68
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10