Bryan Acuña
SS Fort Myers Mighty Mussels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKMIN | 137 | .255/.423/.311 | 0 | 5 | 40 | — | .162/.285/.197 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROKMIN | 304 | .240/.363/.276 | 1 | 12 | 43 | — | .193/.284/.224 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKMIN | 186 | .252/.370/.297 | 0 | 6 | 54 | — | .209/.299/.246 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBMIN | 296 | .186/.270/.239 | 1 | 6 | 48 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBMIN | 54 | .193/.278/.263 | 0 | 1 | 56 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBMIN | 118 | .200/.284/.285 | 1 | 2 | 64 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 16 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 171 | 145 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 36 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 310 | 412 | 393 | 805 | 83 | 409 | 21 | 12 | 368 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 147 | 119 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 185 | 331 | 227 | 558 | 42 | 259 | 27 | 17 | 272 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 137 | 106 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 255 | 423 | 311 | 735 | 57 | 386 | 26 | 20 | 354 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 223 | 191 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 66 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 236 | 342 | 246 | 588 | 10 | 357 | 30 | 13 | 283 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 81 | 63 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 420 | 365 | 785 | 111 | 312 | 17 | 19 | 368 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 167 | 137 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 42 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 263 | 388 | 307 | 694 | 44 | 371 | 25 | 16 | 326 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 19 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 211 | 222 | 433 | 56 | 231 | 26 | 5 | 200 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 171 | 152 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 197 | 282 | 243 | 526 | 46 | 274 | 26 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 147 | 128 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 133 | 234 | 164 | 399 | 31 | 210 | 37 | 11 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 137 | 117 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 53 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 162 | 285 | 197 | 481 | 34 | 289 | 39 | 12 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 223 | 200 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 195 | 275 | 205 | 480 | 10 | 344 | 40 | 9 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 81 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 309 | 275 | 584 | 87 | 247 | 25 | 11 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 167 | 145 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 57 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 221 | 315 | 255 | 570 | 34 | 343 | 34 | 11 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 111 | 158 | 167 | 325 | 56 | 179 | 37 | 5 | 127 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 171 | 152 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 197 | 282 | 243 | 526 | 46 | 278 | 26 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 16 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 171 | 145 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 36 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 310 | 412 | 393 | 805 | 83 | 409 | 21 | 12 | 368 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 147 | 128 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 133 | 234 | 164 | 399 | 31 | 216 | 37 | 11 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 147 | 119 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 185 | 331 | 227 | 558 | 42 | 259 | 27 | 17 | 272 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 137 | 117 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 53 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 162 | 285 | 197 | 481 | 34 | 297 | 39 | 12 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 137 | 106 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 255 | 423 | 311 | 735 | 57 | 386 | 26 | 20 | 354 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 269 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 110 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 193 | 284 | 223 | 507 | 30 | 321 | 36 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 304 | 254 | 61 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 44 | 80 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 240 | 363 | 276 | 639 | 35 | 345 | 26 | 14 | 306 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 164 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 207 | 293 | 244 | 537 | 37 | 333 | 34 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 186 | 155 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 47 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 252 | 370 | 297 | 666 | 45 | 355 | 25 | 15 | 313 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 171 | 151 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 199 | 282 | 245 | 527 | 46 | 274 | 26 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 147 | 129 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 132 | 234 | 163 | 397 | 31 | 210 | 37 | 11 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 137 | 116 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 53 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 164 | 285 | 198 | 483 | 34 | 289 | 39 | 12 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 267 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 110 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 195 | 284 | 225 | 509 | 30 | 318 | 36 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 164 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 207 | 293 | 244 | 537 | 37 | 326 | 34 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 137 | 116 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 53 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 164 | 285 | 198 | 483 | 34 | 289 | 39 | 12 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 267 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 110 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 195 | 284 | 225 | 509 | 30 | 318 | 36 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 164 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 207 | 293 | 244 | 537 | 37 | 326 | 34 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 296 | 263 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 75 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 186 | 270 | 239 | 509 | 53 | 254 | 25 | 9 | 239 | 48 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIN | 34% | 158 | 140 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 278 | 263 | 541 | 70 | 257 | 25 | 9 | 252 | 56 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIN | 48% | 243 | 216 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 60 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 284 | 285 | 568 | 85 | 260 | 25 | 9 | 262 | 64 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 53% | 325 | 288 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 79 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 205 | 288 | 300 | 589 | 95 | 263 | 24 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 55% | 371 | 329 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 90 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 208 | 291 | 311 | 602 | 103 | 264 | 24 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 56% | 399 | 354 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 96 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 210 | 293 | 318 | 611 | 107 | 265 | 24 | 10 | 279 | 75 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 59% | 409 | 363 | 76 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 99 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 209 | 292 | 315 | 608 | 106 | 265 | 24 | 10 | 277 | 74 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 61% | 411 | 365 | 76 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 101 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 208 | 290 | 311 | 601 | 103 | 264 | 25 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 63% | 403 | 358 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 100 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 205 | 288 | 305 | 593 | 99 | 263 | 25 | 9 | 271 | 70 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIN | 34% | 54 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 278 | 263 | 541 | 70 | 257 | 26 | 9 | 252 | 56 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIN | 48% | 118 | 105 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 284 | 285 | 569 | 85 | 260 | 25 | 9 | 262 | 64 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 53% | 171 | 151 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 289 | 301 | 589 | 96 | 263 | 25 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 55% | 203 | 180 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 292 | 311 | 603 | 103 | 264 | 24 | 9 | 276 | 72 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 56% | 222 | 197 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 293 | 318 | 612 | 108 | 266 | 24 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 59% | 242 | 215 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 59 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 292 | 316 | 608 | 106 | 265 | 24 | 10 | 278 | 74 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 61% | 253 | 225 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 291 | 311 | 602 | 103 | 264 | 25 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 63% | 252 | 224 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 62 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 288 | 305 | 593 | 100 | 263 | 25 | 10 | 272 | 70 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1515 | 1345 | 277 | 52 | 6 | 22 | 143 | 371 | 14 | 25 | 7 | 206 | 289 | 303 | 592 | 97 | 266 | 24 | 9 | 273 | 63 | -53 | +2 | -1 | +16 | +33 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 119 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 61 | 159 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 206 | 289 | 302 | 590 | 95 | 267 | 24 | 9 | 273 | 63 | -23 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3772 | 3339 | 666 | 115 | 14 | 44 | 361 | 1020 | 44 | 87 | 34 | 199 | 286 | 282 | 568 | 82 | 271 | 27 | 10 | 261 | 63 | -102 | +4 | -2 | +30 | +61 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 115 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 62 | 176 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 200 | 287 | 283 | 570 | 83 | 271 | 27 | 10 | 261 | 63 | -24 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 167 PAwOBA .322 → .262 (−60)K% 25.1% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 30.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .322 → .262; ISO .044 → .036; BABIP .371 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Twins · 19 PAwOBA .194 → .127 (−68)K% 26.3% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 3.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 12.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .194 → .127; ISO .056 → .034; BABIP .231 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 223 PAwOBA .278 → .222 (−56)K% 29.6% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.60% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.40% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 33.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.60% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 1.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .278 → .222; ISO .010 → .008; BABIP .357 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Twins · 81 PAwOBA .360 → .262 (−98)K% 17.3% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.28% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.981 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 11.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.45% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | ×1.024 | ×0.995 | 18.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | ×1.024 | ×0.995 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.024 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.006 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .360 → .262; ISO .111 → .085; BABIP .312 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Twins · 137 PAwOBA .346 → .227 (−119)K% 26.3% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.28% | ÷0.974 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.71% | ÷1.046 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 11.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.820 | ×0.955 | ×1.008 | 22.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | ×0.955 | ×1.008 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.955 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .346 → .227; ISO .057 → .037; BABIP .386 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Twins · 147 PAwOBA .270 → .194 (−76)K% 26.5% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.53% | ÷1.025 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.01% | ÷0.963 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 11.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.75% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 19.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 1.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.720 | ×0.998 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.913 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.09% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .270 → .194; ISO .042 → .032; BABIP .259 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Twins · 171 PAwOBA .361 → .240 (−121)K% 21.1% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.70% | ÷1.116 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.28% | ÷0.974 | ×0.680 | ×0.967 | ×1.022 | 20.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.01% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | ×0.967 | ×1.022 | 6.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.600 | ×0.967 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 95, 3B 103, K 96, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .361 → .240; ISO .083 → .051; BABIP .409 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).