Cesar Perdomo — OGILVIE

Cesar Perdomo P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 24 LHP 5'10" / 219 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110120vR 129

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%16.3%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP72

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	4	3	15	54	18	3	0	75%	3.8	22.7%	6.9%	15.7%	0.0%	0.60	2.07	—
2022	20	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	4	3	15	54	18	3	0	75%	3.8	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.60	1.30	—
2023	21	ROK	ACL Giants Black	15	5	60	278	53	19	4	33%	4.0	13.0%	8.5%	4.4%	1.9%	5.55	4.13	—
2023	21	ROK	ACL Giants Black	15	5	60	278	53	19	4	33%	4.0	19.1%	6.8%	12.2%	1.4%	5.55	3.15	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	26	14	97	417	105	35	5	54%	3.7	19.0%	9.7%	9.3%	1.5%	2.78	3.53	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	26	14	97	417	105	35	5	54%	3.7	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	1.2%	2.78	2.69	—
2025	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	26	26	127	538	118	38	13	100%	4.9	16.9%	8.1%	8.8%	3.1%	3.96	4.43	—
2025	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	26	26	127	538	118	38	13	100%	4.9	21.9%	7.1%	14.9%	2.4%	3.96	3.47	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	16	14	77	316	95	24	9	88%	4.8	24.4%	8.2%	16.2%	3.2%	3.84	3.86	+1.0
ROS	24	MLB	SF	13	13	72	302	49	28	9	100%	5.5	16.3%	9.1%	7.2%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB	SF	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.3%	9.1%	7.2%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	SF	—	—	149	618	144	52	18	—	—	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	2.9%	4.33	4.34	+1.8
2026 FULL	24	MLB	SF	—	—	1	6	1	1	0	—	—	16.3%	9.1%	7.2%	2.8%	4.80	4.41	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	SF	14	14	79	334	59	30	10	100%	5.6	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	2.9%	4.76	4.73	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	SF	13	13	79	334	61	30	10	100%	6.1	18.2%	9.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.68	+0.3
2029	27	MLB	SF	13	13	78	328	61	30	10	100%	6.0	18.4%	9.1%	9.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.70	+0.2
2030	28	MLB	SF	13	13	76	319	59	29	10	100%	5.8	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	3.1%	4.74	4.77	+0.1
2031	29	MLB	SF	12	12	72	304	55	29	10	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	-0.1
2032	30	MLB	SF	11	11	68	286	51	28	10	100%	6.2	17.9%	9.8%	8.1%	3.4%	4.99	5.08	-0.3
2027	25	MLB	SF	6	6	35	148	26	13	4	100%	5.8	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	2.8%	4.70	4.67	-0.0
2028	26	MLB	SF	9	9	53	224	41	20	6	100%	5.9	18.2%	9.0%	9.2%	2.8%	4.64	4.62	-0.0
2029	27	MLB	SF	10	10	60	253	47	23	7	100%	6.0	18.4%	9.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.62	4.63	-0.1
2030	28	MLB	SF	11	11	64	270	50	25	8	100%	5.8	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	2.9%	4.67	4.70	-0.1
2031	29	MLB	SF	10	10	63	266	48	25	8	100%	6.3	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.77	4.83	-0.2
2032	30	MLB	SF	10	10	61	258	46	25	8	100%	6.1	17.9%	9.8%	8.1%	3.3%	4.91	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			56	56	337	1423	258	132	42	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.3%	8.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.37	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	153	78	25	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.3%	8.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.37	+2.4
Career	—			87	62	377	1603	295	138	39	71%	4.3	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.4%	3.75	3.95	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—			46	33	200	851	157	73	20	71%	4.3	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.4%	3.75	3.95	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Perdomo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	16.3%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.70	18.1%	9.0%	236	-0.16	—	—	—
Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	16.4%	10.5%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	106	87
Jake Zokan L 2026 · 5.12 FIP	24	SP	5.12	12.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.292	1.80	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.32	1.80	120	85
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 4.93 FIP	24	SP-	4.93	16.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	116	85
Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.83 FIP	25	SP-	3.83	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	84
Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP-	4.25	21.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.333	4.75	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.50	3.42	205	84
Grant Watson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP	24	SP-	4.68	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	82
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2028 · 5.52 FIP	26	SP	5.52	13.6%	10.5%	4.1%	.257	4.63	14.5%	5.5%	228	-0.89	3.09	299	82
Kyle Twomey L 2025 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	14.8%	7.9%	1.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	141	81
John Michael Bertrand L 2027 · 3.72 FIP	25	SP-	3.72	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.27	14.3%	5.0%	345	+0.55	3.72	463	81
Jordan Carr L 2027 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	3.87	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.01	3.39	261	80
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.95 FIP	25	SP	3.95	16.5%	8.6%	2.1%	.313	3.78	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.17	3.37	440	80
Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	18.7%	8.5%	3.0%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	200	80
Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	18.5%	7.5%	2.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	152	80
Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	20.6%	9.4%	2.3%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	160	79
Matt Portland L 2026 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	79
Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP-	4.31	18.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.326	5.09	17.5%	5.5%	76	+0.78	2.69	318	79
Justin Marks L 2029 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP-	4.56	15.4%	10.5%	2.6%	.323	3.78	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.78	3.75	324	79
Matthew Crownover L 2026 · 4.67 FIP	24	SP-	4.67	12.6%	8.5%	2.8%	.283	4.46	12.1%	4.6%	118	-0.21	4.30	377	79
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2027 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	12.3%	8.5%	4.9%	.327	4.56	10.7%	3.9%	181	-1.24	3.63	322	79
Cole Kirschsieper L 2024 · 5.23 FIP	22	SP-	5.23	15.2%	12.0%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.23	105	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	76	17.9%	9.2%	1.18	4.79
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Drew VerHagen ('23)	6	43	19.7%	9.4%	1.40	4.82
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Wily Peralta ('22)	7	71	16.1%	9.8%	1.22	4.66
Adam Conley ('19)	5	83	19.7%	9.5%	1.17	4.82
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58