Junior William

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 187 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	ATB	34	46	3.69	3.32	28.0%	18.2%	—	K 20.7% · BB 21.5% · FIP 4.38
2025	25	MIX2 levels	32	39	4.38	3.46	26.3%	10.3%	—	K 20.3% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.61
2026	26	MIX2 levels	36	49	4.04	2.83	27.0%	11.8%	—	K 21.1% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.66
2027PROJ	27	MLBTB	57	60	4.83	4.83	22.7%	14.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBTB	20	21	4.83	4.86	22.6%	13.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBTB	29	30	4.89	4.95	22.4%	13.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command30FB velo65

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBeck Wheeler (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Dennis Sarfate (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%22.7%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CMD2030

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	16	1	30	118	27	9	1	6%	1.9	15.6%	9.5%	6.0%	1.3%	1.50	3.71	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	16	1	30	118	27	9	1	6%	1.9	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	0.8%	1.50	2.63	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	12	48	13	1	1	0%	1.4	27.1%	2.1%	25.0%	2.1%	2.19	2.22	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	12	48	13	1	1	0%	1.4	27.1%	2.1%	25.0%	2.1%	2.19	2.29	—
2023	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	34	0	46	214	60	39	1	0%	1.4	20.7%	21.5%	-0.8%	0.6%	3.69	4.38	—
2023	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	34	0	46	214	60	39	1	0%	1.4	28.0%	18.2%	9.8%	0.5%	3.69	3.32	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	39	175	46	18	4	0%	1.2	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.38	4.61	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	39	175	46	18	4	0%	1.2	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.38	4.61	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	39	175	46	18	4	0%	1.2	26.3%	10.3%	16.0%	2.3%	4.38	3.46	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	49	211	57	25	2	0%	1.4	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	1.2%	4.04	3.66	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	49	211	57	25	2	0%	1.4	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	1.2%	4.04	3.66	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	49	211	57	25	2	0%	1.4	27.0%	11.8%	15.2%	0.9%	4.04	2.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TB	57	0	60	253	57	36	7	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.1%	8.6%	2.7%	4.83	4.83	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	244	55	33	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.83	4.86	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	55	233	52	32	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	13.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.89	4.95	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	TB	20	0	21	89	20	12	3	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.83	4.86	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	TB	29	0	30	127	28	17	4	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.89	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	217	49	30	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	117	23	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		127	1	177	766	156	106	12	1%	1.4	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	1.6%	3.46	4.00	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	1	200	867	177	119	14	1%	1.4	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	1.6%	3.46	4.00	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior William (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	22.7%	14.1%	2.7%	—	4.90	22.5%	8.8%	113	+0.07	—	—	—
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	87
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	86
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	86
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	85
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	84
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Jeff Johnson R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	27	SU	3.69	23.6%	15.6%	1.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	160	84
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	84
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	83
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	22.6%	13.8%	1.10	4.85
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82