John Michael FaileC
Dayton Dragons
Age 26
R/R
5'11" / 218 lbs
A+
HR +9%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.2 · 2028
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .258 / .335
PA106
HR3
K%33
BB%6
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
35→35
PWR
50→50
SPD
40→40
EYE
39↘30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2029
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $2M | $-7M | -$9M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | 2 teams | 149 | 136 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 68 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .184 | .255 | .324 | .579 | .140 | .328 | 46 | 6 | .244 | 45 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 365 | 342 | 61 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 130 | 4 | 1 | 1 | .178 | .226 | .292 | .518 | .114 | .257 | 36 | 5 | .229 | 33 | -27 | -0 | +0 | +7 | +10 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 22 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .318 | .300 | .618 | .050 | .333 | 23 | 9 | .288 | 79 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 84 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .192 | .250 | .308 | .558 | .115 | .283 | 33 | 6 | .267 | 62 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | 106 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .204 | .264 | .306 | .570 | .102 | .286 | 31 | 7 | .271 | 66 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 10% | CIN | 111 | 102 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .206 | .264 | .333 | .597 | .127 | .284 | 32 | 6 | .273 | 67 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 20% | CIN | 214 | 196 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .209 | .269 | .352 | .621 | .143 | .285 | 32 | 7 | .275 | 69 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 33% | CIN | 277 | 253 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 87 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .209 | .273 | .344 | .617 | .134 | .284 | 31 | 7 | .276 | 69 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 43% | CIN | 316 | 289 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 100 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .208 | .268 | .339 | .607 | .131 | .283 | 32 | 7 | .274 | 68 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 52% | CIN | 320 | 292 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 102 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .205 | .268 | .336 | .604 | .130 | .281 | 32 | 7 | .270 | 65 | -13 | +1 | -3 | +6 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 64% | CIN | 310 | 283 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 101 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .198 | .261 | .318 | .579 | .120 | .280 | 33 | 7 | .265 | 61 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +6 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB 81% | CIN | 284 | 260 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 94 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .196 | .259 | .312 | .570 | .115 | .278 | 33 | 7 | .260 | 57 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 243 | 223 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 83 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .193 | .253 | .305 | .558 | .112 | .276 | 34 | 7 | .253 | 52 | -13 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +7 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2673 | 2454 | 486 | 99 | 8 | 64 | 170 | 897 | 29 | 22 | 4 | .198 | .258 | .323 | .581 | .125 | .280 | 34 | 6 | .261 | 58 | -126 | +3 | -20 | +48 | +76 | -2.0 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 597 | 119 | 24 | 2 | 16 | 41 | 218 | 7 | 5 | 1 | .199 | .259 | .327 | .586 | .127 | .281 | 34 | 6 | .261 | 58 | -31 | +1 | -5 | +12 | +18 | -0.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 68 | 65 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .265 | .477 | .742 | .246 | .297 | 35 | 3 | .322 | 104 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | ACL Reds | 81 | 66 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .333 | .457 | .561 | 1.017 | .227 | .514 | 32 | 15 | .448 | 201 | +9 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 365 | 335 | 78 | 19 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 102 | 4 | 1 | 1 | .233 | .292 | .406 | .698 | .173 | .293 | 28 | 7 | .309 | 95 | -2 | -0 | — | — | +10 | 0.8 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| John Michael Faile (OGILVIE) | 26 | 35 | 50 | 40 | 30 | .202/.258/.335 | .133 | .283 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 6% | 62 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2018 · A |
25 | 41→37 | 47→50 | 46→50 | 37 | .207/.268/.345 | .139 | .293 | 15 | 11 | 34% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .221/.296/.379 | .158 | .309 | 19 | 8 | 33% | 8% | 90 | +1.0 | .215/.315/.403 | .187 | .284 | 26 | 2 | 32% | 11% | 106 | +0.8 |
|
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA |
26 | 38 | 45→50 | 43→30 | 40 | .195/.250/.317 | .122 | .255 | 13 | 5 | 28% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .193/.251/.326 | .133 | .244 | 17 | 4 | 28% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .182/.252/.278 | .096 | .251 | 12 | 0 | 31% | 7% | 42 | -0.9 |
|
✕Jeffrey Eure 2007 · AA |
26 | 39→31 | 48→50 | 41→45 | 34 | .201/.249/.340 | .139 | .286 | 16 | 5 | 35% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .202/.256/.317 | .115 | .302 | 11 | 7 | 35% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .159/.222/.237 | .078 | .262 | 5 | 5 | 39% | 5% | 17 | -1.2 |
|
✕Carter Aldrete 2023 · AA |
25 | 41→39 | 49→50 | 43→45 | 38 | .211/.260/.356 | .145 | .293 | 18 | 7 | 34% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .205/.251/.342 | .137 | .286 | 16 | 5 | 33% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .185/.227/.309 | .124 | .254 | 15 | 1 | 33% | 5% | 39 | -1.3 |
|
✕Scott Kapers 2023 · AA |
26 | 40 | 50 | 42→40 | 36 | .201/.277/.345 | .145 | .305 | 19 | 6 | 38% | 6% | 74 | -0.1 | .194/.265/.321 | .127 | .264 | 13 | 5 | 31% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .172/.249/.288 | .115 | .223 | 10 | 0 | 26% | 6% | 46 | -0.9 |
|
✕Kevin Richardson 2008 · AA |
27 | 41 | 50 | 42→40 | 39 | .212/.275/.356 | .144 | .288 | 19 | 4 | 33% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .197/.250/.334 | .137 | .292 | 18 | 4 | 37% | 5% | 59 | -1.1 | .177/.226/.315 | .137 | .293 | 18 | 1 | 44% | 4% | 39 | -1.1 |
|
✕Scott Manea 2021 · A |
25 | 40→41 | 47→45 | 39→30 | 41 | .205/.282/.334 | .129 | .262 | 15 | 3 | 27% | 6% | 73 | -0.1 | .210/.295/.321 | .111 | .301 | 12 | 3 | 32% | 9% | 74 | -0.1 | .195/.289/.293 | .098 | .285 | 11 | 0 | 32% | 10% | 61 | -0.5 |
|
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA |
26 | 35→28 | 49→50 | 43→40 | 41 | .191/.255/.331 | .140 | .253 | 18 | 5 | 32% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .195/.273/.341 | .146 | .245 | 19 | 5 | 28% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .191/.275/.335 | .144 | .229 | 19 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 68 | -0.4 |
|
✕Duke Sardinha 2007 · A |
26 | 38→34 | 45→55 | 45 | 37 | .196/.247/.317 | .121 | .281 | 13 | 8 | 34% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .208/.257/.339 | .131 | .284 | 15 | 6 | 31% | 5% | 63 | -0.9 | .219/.270/.383 | .164 | .267 | 21 | 2 | 27% | 5% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Brandon Waring 2012 · AA |
26 | 37→41 | 52→55 | 43→40 | 36 | .198/.256/.363 | .165 | .283 | 20 | 2 | 37% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .194/.261/.364 | .170 | .290 | 22 | 3 | 39% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .177/.250/.347 | .169 | .274 | 22 | 1 | 42% | 7% | 60 | -0.8 |
|
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA |
27 | 41 | 44→45 | 44→40 | 43 | .205/.269/.321 | .117 | .279 | 11 | 5 | 30% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .216/.284/.361 | .145 | .260 | 15 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .203/.270/.374 | .171 | .212 | 20 | 2 | 16% | 7% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Joe DeCarlo 2019 · AA |
25 | 39→38 | 50 | 44→30 | 42 | .204/.280/.354 | .150 | .279 | 18 | 3 | 32% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .190/.259/.291 | .101 | .289 | 10 | 4 | 36% | 7% | 51 | -1.7 | .149/.219/.197 | .048 | .245 | 6 | 0 | 39% | 7% | 8 | -1.5 |
|
✕Lou Santangelo 2009 · AAA |
26 | 39→38 | 46→55 | 42→40 | 38 | .202/.247/.322 | .120 | .283 | 14 | 3 | 34% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .198/.248/.301 | .103 | .281 | 10 | 3 | 32% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .183/.237/.280 | .097 | .259 | 9 | 0 | 32% | 6% | 35 | -1.4 |
|
✕Matt Repec 2010 · A |
26 | 43→40 | 46→50 | 45 | 37 | .215/.259/.345 | .130 | .302 | 13 | 6 | 33% | 5% | 64 | -0.8 | .204/.256/.305 | .101 | .284 | 8 | 5 | 29% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .167/.225/.238 | .071 | .229 | 2 | 0 | 26% | 7% | 20 | -1.7 |
|
✕Colton Shaver 2021 · AA |
25 | 37→32 | 50 | 43→30 | 42 | .195/.269/.348 | .153 | .270 | 18 | 3 | 34% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .182/.271/.322 | .140 | .342 | 17 | 4 | 48% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .123/.241/.259 | .136 | .226 | 21 | 0 | 51% | 10% | 36 | -1.2 |
|
✕Seby Zavala 2019 · AAA |
25 | 40→39 | 48→50 | 40 | 37 | .209/.256/.343 | .134 | .287 | 17 | 2 | 33% | 5% | 63 | -0.9 | .192/.246/.342 | .150 | .288 | 20 | 3 | 39% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .193/.272/.319 | .126 | .301 | 14 | 1 | 38% | 8% | 62 | -0.4 |
|
✕Tyler Marlette 2018 · AA |
25 | 42→43 | 47→50 | 44→45 | 40 | .216/.261/.349 | .133 | .281 | 15 | 4 | 29% | 5% | 66 | -0.6 | .218/.270/.346 | .128 | .292 | 15 | 6 | 29% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .213/.267/.335 | .123 | .281 | 16 | 5 | 29% | 6% | 61 | -0.8 |
|
✕Erik Ostberg 2022 · AA |
26 | 43 | 48→55 | 42→45 | 39 | .216/.273/.352 | .135 | .312 | 17 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .203/.262/.347 | .144 | .293 | 17 | 7 | 35% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .171/.233/.318 | .147 | .237 | 17 | 7 | 35% | 7% | 44 | -0.6 |
|
✕Lucas May 2010 · AA |
25 | 42 | 49→55 | 45 | 40 | .216/.267/.365 | .149 | .279 | 17 | 6 | 29% | 6% | 74 | -0.1 | .210/.260/.340 | .130 | .284 | 14 | 6 | 30% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .190/.236/.313 | .123 | .256 | 13 | 4 | 31% | 5% | 44 | -1.2 |
|
✕Cam Devanney 2023 · AAA |
26 | 38→42 | 50→55 | 45 | 40 | .202/.263/.354 | .152 | .266 | 18 | 6 | 31% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .219/.281/.377 | .158 | .285 | 18 | 7 | 29% | 7% | 83 | +0.6 | .217/.281/.374 | .157 | .284 | 18 | 7 | 29% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 |