John Michael Faile

John Michael FaileC Dayton Dragons

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 218 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION362 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP282

ISO133

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	24	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	68	65	15	2	1	4	2	24	1	0	0	231	265	477	742	246	297	35	3	322	104	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	24	ROK	ACL Reds	—	81	66	22	6	0	3	12	26	3	1	0	333	457	561	1.017	227	514	32	15	448	189	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2025	25	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	365	335	78	19	0	13	24	102	4	1	1	233	292	406	698	173	293	28	7	309	95	-2	-0	—	—	+8	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	68	66	10	1	1	2	1	32	1	0	0	152	176	288	464	136	252	47	1	202	23	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	81	71	14	3	0	2	7	38	3	1	0	197	296	324	620	127	391	47	9	277	74	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	365	342	60	15	0	9	17	138	4	1	1	175	223	298	521	123	254	38	5	224	38	-27	-0	—	—	+8	-2.0
2024	24	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	149	136	25	5	1	4	9	70	4	1	0	184	255	324	579	140	339	47	6	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	149	131	37	8	1	7	14	50	4	1	0	282	369	519	888	237	405	34	9	390	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	365	342	60	15	0	9	17	138	4	1	1	175	223	298	521	123	259	38	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	365	335	78	19	0	13	24	102	4	1	1	233	292	406	698	173	293	28	7	309	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	149	135	25	5	1	4	9	70	4	1	0	185	255	326	581	141	328	47	6	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	365	341	60	15	0	9	17	138	4	1	1	176	223	299	522	123	254	38	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	24	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	149	135	25	5	1	4	9	70	4	1	0	185	255	326	581	141	328	47	6	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	365	341	60	15	0	9	17	138	4	1	1	176	223	299	522	123	254	38	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	A+ MLE	CIN	—	362	326	74	14	2	11	23	102	7	1	0	227	292	383	676	156	288	28	6	290	82	-8	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	A+ RAW	CIN	—	362	317	88	18	2	14	32	76	7	1	0	278	357	479	836	202	318	21	9	364	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	A+ MLE	CIN	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		279	30	10	277	74	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	26	A+ MLE	CIN	—	372	335	75	14	2	11	24	105	7	1	0	224	290	376	666	152	284	28	6	290	82	-8	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	26%	111	101	21	4	0	3	7	33	2	1	0	208	273	337	609	129	278	30	6	280	76	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	39%	214	195	42	8	1	6	14	63	3	2	1	215	278	359	637	144	279	29	7	282	77	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	44%	277	253	55	11	1	8	18	81	4	3	1	217	280	364	644	146	279	29	6	282	77	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	47%	316	288	61	12	1	9	21	93	4	3	1	212	275	354	629	142	278	29	7	281	76	-9	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	CIN	49%	320	292	61	12	1	9	21	95	4	3	1	209	271	349	621	140	275	30	7	277	73	-10	+0	-3	+6	+7	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	26%	29	27	6	1	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	222	276	370	646	148	282	31	7	276	76	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	39%	84	78	16	3	0	3	5	25	1	1	0	205	262	359	621	154	283	30	6	279	77	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	44%	123	112	24	5	0	4	8	36	2	1	0	214	279	366	645	152	282	29	7	279	77	-3	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	47%	150	137	29	6	0	4	10	44	2	1	0	212	275	343	618	131	281	29	7	277	76	-4	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	CIN	49%	157	144	30	6	0	5	10	47	2	2	0	208	269	354	623	146	279	30	6	273	73	-5	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	543	498	105	21	0	17	35	161	7	5	0	211	272	355	628	145	272	30	6	277	66	-16	+1	-3	+10	+12	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	125	25	0	20	42	193	8	6	0	210	271	352	623	143	271	30	6	277	66	-19	+1	-4	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1762	1616	326	67	5	48	108	576	25	14	5	202	262	338	601	137	278	33	6	265	66	-36	+1	-7	+22	+27	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	121	25	2	18	40	212	9	5	2	203	263	342	605	139	279	33	6	265	66	-19	+0	-4	+12	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	544	15	5	213	272	354	+10	+8	0.9	0.9
/162	664	18	6	+11.9	+9.8	1.1	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
John Michael Faile (OGILVIE)	26	35	50	40	30	208/266/350	142	279	3	1	31%	6%	74	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA	26	38	45→50	43→30	40	195/251/314	119	251	12	5	28%	6%	59	-1.7	194/251/327	133	244	16	4	27%	6%	62	-1.4	217/296/335	118	314	12	1	32%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Jeffrey Eure 2007 · AA	26	39→31	47→50	41→45	35	203/249/335	133	284	15	5	34%	4%	63	-1.4	206/261/315	109	301	10	8	33%	5%	62	-1.4	168/230/245	77	267	5	5	36%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Duke Sardinha 2007 · A	26	38→34	45→50	45	37	195/246/317	122	280	13	8	35%	6%	57	-1.8	209/258/334	125	283	14	6	30%	5%	66	-1.1	223/272/376	153	271	19	2	25%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Brandon Waring 2012 · AA	26	36→39	51→55	44→40	37	195/251/352	157	275	18	2	36%	6%	68	-1.0	191/258/351	160	283	20	3	38%	6%	71	-0.8	176/249/335	160	268	20	1	40%	7%	61	-1.1
✕Cam Devanney 2023 · AAA	26	38→41	48→50	45	41	201/263/342	141	261	16	6	29%	6%	70	-0.8	216/279/360	144	284	15	8	28%	7%	80	-0.2	212/276/353	142	282	15	7	29%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Carter Aldrete 2023 · AA	25	40→39	49→50	42→45	39	210/259/354	144	288	18	7	33%	6%	71	-0.8	204/249/333	129	280	15	5	32%	6%	62	-1.4	185/226/301	116	250	14	1	32%	5%	44	-1.4
✕Jakson Reetz 2022 · AAA	26	37→33	43→55	45	40	186/266/297	111	275	11	5	34%	7%	61	-1.5	202/279/375	173	264	21	5	32%	7%	84	+0.2	193/274/380	187	243	23	4	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA	26	34→28	49→50	43→40	42	187/252/323	136	248	18	5	32%	7%	62	-1.4	195/274/335	140	245	18	5	28%	8%	73	-0.6	196/273/324	129	231	14	4	22%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA	26	38	45	44→30	41	196/255/316	120	274	13	4	33%	7%	60	-1.6	208/274/335	127	292	16	5	32%	8%	72	-0.7	190/265/307	117	260	16	2	32%	9%	62	-0.4
✕David Maroul 2009 · AA	26	35→37	47→50	41→40	34	190/227/324	134	263	15	4	34%	4%	51	-2.2	199/243/325	126	306	14	6	38%	5%	58	-1.7	163/208/287	124	265	16	2	44%	4%	32	-1.2
✕Greg Thissen 2006 · A	25	39	43→45	40→45	39	196/245/305	109	263	11	5	30%	5%	54	-2.0	204/270/297	93	270	8	7	26%	8%	61	-1.5	197/274/279	82	258	7	7	25%	9%	59	-0.7
✕Matt Dryer 2006 · A	26	34→39	50	46→40	37	186/244/331	145	268	18	5	37%	6%	60	-1.6	206/262/344	138	312	16	5	37%	6%	70	-0.9	200/255/340	141	303	18	1	39%	5%	64	-0.9
✕Rodolfo Durán 2023 · AAA	25	37	48→50	47→45	37	199/236/338	139	252	16	4	28%	4%	59	-1.7	221/264/365	144	279	16	5	26%	5%	75	-0.5	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Matthew Allegra 2007 · AA	26	39	48→50	43→40	37	199/256/341	141	297	16	5	37%	6%	67	-1.1	208/261/350	142	282	14	6	30%	6%	71	-0.8	194/244/342	148	248	14	2	28%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Coco Montes 2022 · AA	25	41→46	45→50	40→50	37	206/249/335	129	279	12	5	30%	4%	62	-1.4	219/285/361	142	311	15	10	32%	8%	82	+0.0	221/294/365	143	313	15	11	32%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Luke Ritter 2023 · AAA	26	37→42	48→50	46→45	38	191/262/325	135	291	16	8	38%	7%	66	-1.1	201/285/347	146	307	18	6	38%	9%	80	-0.1	194/285/334	139	299	18	4	38%	9%	74	-0.5
✕Logan Hill 2019 · AA	26	39→40	50	40→45	39	205/268/354	149	289	18	5	35%	7%	75	-0.5	210/270/350	140	297	15	4	33%	6%	74	-0.5	198/259/338	140	276	15	1	33%	6%	65	-1.1
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2008 · AAA	26	41	44→45	39→40	41	207/259/324	117	268	13	5	28%	6%	64	-1.3	215/272/325	110	272	11	4	24%	6%	69	-0.9	221/280/350	129	265	16	2	23%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Chris Maples 2006 · AA	26	39→41	47→50	46→45	36	201/247/336	135	274	14	5	32%	4%	62	-1.4	209/256/348	139	292	15	7	33%	5%	68	-1.0	201/248/343	142	278	16	5	33%	5%	62	-0.7
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/244/306	122	245	15	10	31%	6%	55	-2.0	208/254/339	131	279	15	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/259/339	128	274	14	10	28%	5%	64	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps