Adam Smith
P
Everett AquaSox
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
K%16.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | 7 | 4 | 14 | 62 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 57% | 2.0 | 16.5% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 6.28 | 6.20 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | 7 | 4 | 14 | 62 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 57% | 2.0 | 24.2% | 4.8% | 19.4% | 4.8% | 6.28 | 4.36 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 2 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.21 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 2 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 26.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.30 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 30 | 0 | 42 | 192 | 35 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 5.83 | 5.05 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 30 | 0 | 42 | 192 | 35 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 5.83 | 3.87 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 29 | 0 | 59 | 266 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 2.0 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 5.83 | 4.59 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 29 | 0 | 59 | 266 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 5.83 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 3 | 75 | 307 | 75 | 29 | 5 | 9% | 2.4 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 1.7% | 3.35 | 3.83 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 3 | 75 | 307 | 75 | 29 | 5 | 9% | 2.4 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 1.6% | 3.35 | 3.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 17 | 0 | 28 | 111 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.1% | 4.3% | 17.8% | 3.5% | 1.61 | 3.68 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.9% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.96 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 98 | 407 | 82 | 37 | 11 | — | — | 20.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.9% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 51 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 50 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 0 | 65 | 275 | 49 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.58 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 92 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 9 | 223 | 957 | 162 | 94 | 26 | 8% | 1.9 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.39 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 8 | 200 | 858 | 145 | 85 | 23 | 8% | 1.9 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 16.9% | 11.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.95 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 136 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 87 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 87 |
| Josh Zeid R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 87 |
| Raul Fernandez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.42 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.3% | .270 | 5.61 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 38 | +1.19 | 3.95 | 165 | 86 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 85 |
| Confesor Lara R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 85 |
| Junior Lopez R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 1.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 128 | 85 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 85 |
| Nefi Ogando R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.92 | 17.0% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .266 | 4.19 | 14.7% | 3.1% | 40 | +0.27 | 3.92 | 103 | 84 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 84 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.64 | 16.6% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .333 | 5.37 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 46 | +0.73 | 3.74 | 140 | 84 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 84 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .331 | 9.13 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.87 | 4.53 | 108 | 84 |
| Jacob Wosinski R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .291 | 5.39 | 17.0% | 6.9% | 26 | +1.48 | 3.91 | 181 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .304 | 3.13 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.15 | 3.02 | 214 | 84 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.58 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.70 | 3.50 | 219 | 84 |
| Brad Schreiber R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 1.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 171 | 83 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .266 | 5.46 | 18.7% | 9.7% | 102 | +1.49 | 3.34 | 334 | 83 |
| David Martinez R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 14.2% | 8.3% | 1.6% | .284 | 4.80 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 230 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 297 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 17.4% | 11.1% | 1.09 | 4.94 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |