Adam Smith
P
Greenville Drive
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.3%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.4%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | 7 | 4 | 14 | 62 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 16.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.28 | 6.20 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 2 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 30 | 0 | 42 | 192 | 35 | 21 | 3 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 5.83 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 29 | 0 | 59 | 266 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 5.83 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 32 | 3 | 75 | 307 | 75 | 29 | 5 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 1.9% | 3.35 | 3.95 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 55 | 29 | 8 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 55 | 29 | 8 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 55 | 28 | 8 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 54 | 28 | 8 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 52 | 27 | 8 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 50 | 26 | 8 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 47 | 26 | 7 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 44 | 25 | 7 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 41 | 24 | 7 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 18.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 9 | 195 | 846 | 137 | 90 | 22 | 16.2% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.47 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 9 | 200 | 868 | 141 | 92 | 23 | 16.2% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.66 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 192 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 92 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 92 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 90 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 89 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.79 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.46 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.67 | 3.75 | 154 | 89 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 88 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 88 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 88 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 88 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 88 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 87 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 87 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 87 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 87 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 87 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 199 | 87 |
| Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .307 | 5.33 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59 | +1.59 | 3.36 | 204 | 87 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 87 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.12 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .246 | 4.74 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 116 | +0.62 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.