Adam Smith — OGILVIE

Adam Smith P Arkansas Travelers

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%16.9%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	7	4	14	62	15	3	3	57%	2.0	16.5%	6.0%	10.4%	6.8%	6.28	6.20	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	7	4	14	62	15	3	3	57%	2.0	24.2%	4.8%	19.4%	4.8%	6.28	4.36	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	2	5	19	5	2	0	100%	2.5	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	1.80	2.21	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	2	5	19	5	2	0	100%	2.5	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	0.0%	1.80	2.30	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	30	0	42	192	35	21	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	12.6%	1.5%	2.3%	5.83	4.77	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	30	0	42	192	35	21	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	12.6%	1.5%	2.3%	5.83	4.77	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	30	0	42	192	35	21	3	0%	1.4	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	1.6%	5.83	3.87	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	29	0	59	266	49	23	6	0%	2.0	14.2%	9.9%	4.2%	2.7%	5.83	4.65	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	29	0	59	266	49	23	6	0%	2.0	14.2%	9.9%	4.2%	2.7%	5.83	4.65	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	29	0	59	266	49	23	6	0%	2.0	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	5.83	3.94	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	75	307	75	29	5	9%	2.4	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	1.9%	3.35	3.93	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	3	75	307	75	29	5	9%	2.4	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	1.9%	3.35	3.93	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	3	75	307	75	29	5	9%	2.4	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	1.6%	3.35	3.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	33	1	55	235	51	15	6	3%	1.7	17.1%	7.1%	9.9%	3.1%	3.25	4.28	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	33	1	55	235	51	15	6	3%	1.7	17.1%	7.1%	9.9%	3.1%	3.25	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	SEA	16	0	27	108	31	4	3	0%	1.7	28.7%	3.7%	25.0%	2.8%	1.67	2.67	—
2026	26	AA RAW	SEA	17	1	28	127	20	11	3	6%	1.7	15.7%	8.7%	7.1%	2.4%	4.76	4.16	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.2%	5.6%	2.8%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	61	260	55	18	7	—	—	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	2.6%	3.42	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	66	0	69	291	51	32	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.1%	6.4%	2.8%	4.95	4.96	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	64	0	67	282	50	31	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	2.9%	4.96	5.00	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	61	0	64	270	48	30	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.2%	6.6%	3.1%	5.03	5.10	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	25	0	26	110	19	12	3	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.1%	6.4%	2.8%	4.95	4.96	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	38	0	40	169	30	19	5	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	2.9%	4.96	5.00	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	43	0	45	190	34	21	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.2%	6.6%	3.1%	5.03	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	83	52	14	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.2%	6.6%	3.0%	4.99	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	94	25	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.2%	6.6%	3.0%	4.99	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		133	10	250	1081	177	106	29	8%	1.9	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	2.7%	4.46	4.43	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	8	200	864	141	85	23	8%	1.9	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	2.7%	4.46	4.43	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	16.9%	11.2%	2.8%	—	5.02	17.7%	6.6%	200	+0.03	—	—	—
Logan Bawcom R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	15.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.320	4.35	15.9%	6.2%	259	+0.50	3.73	399	88
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	87
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	87
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	86
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	86
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	86
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	86
Junior Lopez R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	15.7%	9.9%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	128	86
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	86
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	85
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	85
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	85
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	85
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	85
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Nefi Ogando R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	17.0%	11.6%	1.4%	.266	4.11	14.7%	3.1%	40	+0.24	3.87	103	84
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	84
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	84
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.5%	11.2%	1.12	4.98
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77