Justin Meis

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AAPIT	37	0	64	6.44	4.36	24.6%	12.3%	—	K 19.9% · BB 13.5% · FIP 5.53
2025	25	AAPIT	42	0	62	2.89	2.81	26.1%	6.6%	—	K 21.1% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.68
2026	26	MIX2 levels	49	1	70	4.13	4.15	22.0%	14.1%	—	K 18.7% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.37
2027PROJ	27	MLBPIT	128	0	134	4.78	4.78	19.2%	10.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBPIT	52	0	55	4.78	4.81	19.4%	10.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBPIT	70	0	73	4.83	4.90	19.3%	10.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsEmmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Roberto Gómez (age 27) · Jose Pina (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%19.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP134

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	10	0	18	78	27	9	2	0%	1.8	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.6%	2.04	4.07	—
2021	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	10	0	18	78	27	9	2	0%	1.8	34.6%	11.5%	23.1%	2.6%	2.04	3.04	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	114	483	116	47	14	88%	4.4	18.2%	11.3%	7.0%	3.0%	4.11	4.64	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	114	483	116	47	14	88%	4.4	24.0%	9.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.11	3.90	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	29	10	83	369	77	47	13	34%	2.9	16.9%	14.0%	2.9%	3.8%	4.55	5.54	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	29	10	83	369	77	47	13	34%	2.9	20.9%	12.7%	8.1%	3.5%	4.55	4.98	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	37	0	64	293	72	36	9	0%	1.7	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	4.4%	6.44	5.53	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	37	0	64	293	72	36	9	0%	1.7	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	4.4%	6.44	5.53	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	37	0	64	293	72	36	9	0%	1.7	24.6%	12.3%	12.3%	3.1%	6.44	4.36	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	42	0	62	257	67	17	5	0%	1.5	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	2.6%	2.89	3.68	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	42	0	62	257	67	17	5	0%	1.5	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	2.6%	2.89	3.68	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	42	0	62	257	67	17	5	0%	1.5	26.1%	6.6%	19.5%	1.9%	2.89	2.81	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	70	304	67	43	6	2%	1.4	18.7%	13.1%	5.6%	2.2%	4.13	4.37	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	70	304	67	43	6	2%	1.4	18.7%	13.1%	5.6%	2.2%	4.13	4.37	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	70	304	67	43	6	2%	1.4	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	2.0%	4.13	4.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	PIT	128	0	134	566	109	62	16	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.9%	8.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	PIT	124	0	130	549	106	59	16	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	2.9%	4.78	4.81	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	PIT	118	0	124	524	101	56	16	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	3.1%	4.83	4.90	-0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	PIT	111	0	117	493	94	54	16	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.3%	4.94	5.04	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	PIT	52	0	55	232	45	25	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	2.9%	4.78	4.81	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	PIT	70	0	73	308	60	33	9	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	3.1%	4.83	4.90	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	PIT	78	0	82	346	66	38	11	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.3%	4.94	5.04	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		201	0	211	889	171	96	28	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.8%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	91	27	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.8%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		193	34	411	1784	340	215	57	18%	2.1	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.76	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	17	200	868	165	105	28	18%	2.1	19.0%	12.0%	7.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.76	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Meis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	19.2%	10.9%	2.8%	—	4.91	19.3%	8.4%	371	+0.13	—	—	—
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	79
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	79
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	78
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	78
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	75
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	74
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	73
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	73
Warwick Saupold R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	27	SU	4.37	16.2%	9.7%	2.5%	.285	4.82	13.7%	6.1%	88	+0.45	3.47	389	73
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	73
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	73
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	73
Daniel Blair R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	17.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	171	72
Robert Kwiatkowski R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	18.3%	9.0%	2.4%	.255	4.23	15.9%	2.3%	20	+0.20	4.03	254	72
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	72
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	72
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	72
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	71
Evan Gates R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.2%	10.2%	2.1%	.315	4.26	20.7%	10.2%	128	+0.33	3.65	300	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	126	19.2%	10.8%	1.16	4.83
Fred Burchell ('03-'09, 0 WAR*)	1.4	95	19.6%*	9.9%*	1.05*	4.84*
George Chalmers ('10-'16, 2 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.2%*	10.7%*	1.14*	4.59*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Roger Pavlik ('98)	3.7	124	16.2%	10.8%	1.03	4.58
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16