Connor Butler
Connor Butler
P
FCL Red Sox
Age 26
LHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
ROK
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION16 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.6%
IP16
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 23 | 0 | 27 | 138 | 33 | 34 | 2 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 2.0% | 5.93 | 6.60 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 16 | — | 16 | 69 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 23 | 0 | 27 | 138 | 23 | 41 | 3 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 2.0% | 5.93 | 6.60 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 0 | 200 | 1010 | 168 | 300 | 22 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 2.0% | 5.93 | 6.60 | -2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Butler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.42 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 20 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 82 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 82 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 81 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 81 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 81 |
| Joey Marciano L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .301 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 4.5% | 102 | +0.95 | 3.78 | 330 | 80 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.66 | 3.46 | 145 | 79 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 79 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 79 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 79 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 79 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .288 | 3.75 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.61 | 3.02 | 398 | 79 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 79 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.71 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.16 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.45 | 3.20 | 194 | 79 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Daniel Gibson L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 159 | 78 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.44 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 206 | 78 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.06 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.80 | 3.06 | 145 | 78 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 78 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.