Luke Heyman — OGILVIE

Luke HeymanC Salem RidgeYaks

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 220 lbs A H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION298 act + 198 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .290 / .370

PA198

HR7

K%30

BB%10

BABIP262

ISO165

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$10M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$9M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.6M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.1M
Totals		$10M		$34M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	BOS	—	298	260	47	7	1	12	31	99	2	0	0	181	273	354	627	173	227	33	10	277	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
YTD	23	A	BOS	—	298	243	56	9	1	15	48	72	2	0	0	230	362	461	823	230	255	24	16	360	134	+11	+0	+0	+5	+8	2.6
ROS	23	A	BOS	0%	198	175	36	6	1	7	19	59	2	1	0	205	290	370	660	165	260	30	10	293	83	-4	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.6
ROS	23	MLB	BOS	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		265	—	—	291	81	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	BOS	—	298	261	47	7	1	12	31	99	2	0	0	180	273	352	626	172	226	33	10	277	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
TOT	23	A	BOS	—	496	435	83	13	2	19	50	158	4	1	0	191	280	360	640	170	242	32	10	283	75	-14	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BOS	42%	520	461	97	16	2	19	50	151	4	4	1	210	293	377	671	167	265	29	10	299	87	-7	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.7
2028	25	MLB	BOS	62%	520	461	99	17	2	19	50	148	4	4	1	215	297	384	681	169	268	28	10	303	90	-6	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.9
2029	26	MLB	BOS	71%	520	461	99	17	2	19	50	146	4	4	1	215	297	384	681	169	269	28	10	304	91	-5	+0	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2030	27	MLB	BOS	73%	520	460	99	17	2	19	50	146	5	4	1	215	299	385	684	170	269	28	10	305	91	-5	+0	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2031	28	MLB	BOS	75%	520	460	98	17	2	18	51	147	4	4	1	213	297	376	673	163	269	28	10	304	91	-6	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.9
2032	29	MLB	BOS	73%	520	460	98	17	2	18	51	148	4	4	1	213	297	376	673	163	268	28	10	302	89	-6	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.7
2033	30	MLB	BOS	73%	520	460	98	17	2	18	51	149	4	4	1	213	297	376	673	163	266	29	10	299	87	-8	+0	-2	+9	+15	1.5
2034	31	MLB	BOS	72%	504	446	93	16	2	17	49	146	4	3	1	209	293	368	660	159	264	29	10	295	84	-9	+0	-3	+9	+14	1.2
2035	32	MLB	BOS	72%	489	434	89	15	2	16	48	144	4	3	1	205	290	359	650	154	260	29	10	290	80	-11	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.8
2036	33	MLB	BOS	72%	473	420	83	13	2	15	46	141	4	3	1	198	283	345	628	148	256	30	10	283	75	-14	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.4
2037	34	MLB	BOS	68%	437	389	75	12	2	13	42	133	3	3	1	193	276	334	611	141	250	30	10	274	68	-16	+0	-5	+8	+12	-0.0
2038	35	MLB	BOS	63%	376	334	62	9	1	11	36	118	3	2	1	186	271	317	588	132	244	31	10	265	61	-17	+0	-5	+7	+11	-0.5
2027	24	MLB	BOS	42%	220	195	42	7	1	8	21	64	2	2	0	215	298	385	683	169	271	29	10	297	86	-4	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.7
2028	25	MLB	BOS	62%	322	285	62	11	1	12	31	92	3	2	1	218	301	389	690	172	274	29	10	300	88	-4	+0	+0	+6	+9	1.1
2029	26	MLB	BOS	71%	370	329	72	13	2	13	35	104	3	3	1	219	300	389	689	170	275	28	9	302	89	-5	+0	+0	+7	+10	1.3
2030	27	MLB	BOS	73%	382	339	75	13	2	14	37	107	3	3	1	221	303	395	699	174	275	28	10	302	90	-5	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.4
2031	28	MLB	BOS	75%	388	344	75	13	2	14	38	109	3	3	1	218	301	390	691	172	275	28	10	301	89	-5	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.3
2032	29	MLB	BOS	73%	382	339	73	13	2	13	37	108	3	3	1	215	298	381	679	165	274	28	10	300	87	-5	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.2
2033	30	MLB	BOS	73%	379	336	72	13	1	13	37	109	3	3	1	214	298	375	673	161	272	29	10	297	85	-6	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.0
2034	31	MLB	BOS	72%	365	323	68	12	1	12	36	106	3	2	1	211	296	365	661	155	270	29	10	293	82	-7	+0	-2	+7	+10	0.8
2035	32	MLB	BOS	72%	353	313	65	11	1	12	34	104	3	2	1	208	291	364	656	157	266	29	10	287	78	-9	+0	-2	+6	+10	0.5
2036	33	MLB	BOS	72%	341	302	61	10	1	11	33	102	3	2	1	202	287	351	638	149	262	30	10	281	73	-10	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.2
2037	34	MLB	BOS	68%	295	263	51	8	1	9	28	90	2	2	0	194	276	335	611	141	255	31	9	272	67	-11	+0	-3	+5	+8	-0.0
2038	35	MLB	BOS	63%	237	210	40	6	1	7	23	74	2	1	0	190	277	329	605	138	249	31	10	263	59	-11	+0	-3	+4	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4034	3579	756	130	16	138	390	1169	33	28	9	211	295	372	667	161	270	29	10	292	82	-82	+2	-16	+72	+114	9.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	122	21	3	22	63	188	5	5	1	211	295	373	667	161	270	29	10	292	82	-13	+1	-3	+12	+18	1.5
Career	—			—	6117	5421	1126	189	24	209	593	1776	49	43	12	208	292	367	659	159	264	29	10	295	84	-114	+4	-23	+109	+173	15.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	120	20	3	22	63	189	5	5	1	208	292	368	660	160	266	29	10	295	84	-12	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Robinson Chirinoslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,427 PA	10	2,427	95	5	227	320	420	+43	-10	12.9	13.8
	/162	664	26	1	227	320	420	+11.9	-2.8	3.5	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,354	147	32	210	290	369	+69	-18	11.7	10.3
	/162	664	22	5	210	290	369	+10.6	-2.7	1.8	pk7: 9
#5Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
	/162	664	21	1	241	303	410	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Heyman (OGILVIE)	23	40	55	30	62	191/280/360	170	242	19	1	32%	10%	75	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→47	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	274	20	4	27%	8%	94	+1.3	219/282/356	137	276	15	3	25%	7%	77	+0.1	241/316/409	168	288	21	2	23%	9%	102	+0.7
✕Tyler Ogle 2014 · A	23	45→44	47→50	39→30	55	226/316/359	133	261	15	5	20%	10%	93	+1.3	219/299/371	152	267	18	3	25%	9%	89	+0.9	206/284/368	162	250	21	0	26%	9%	79	+0.1
●Michael Wing 2012 · A	23	49→50	47→55	35→40	41	244/290/381	137	307	15	4	25%	5%	87	+0.8	216/256/337	121	284	11	5	27%	4%	61	-1.0	227/268/390	163	293	18	4	28%	4%	80	+0.2
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	38→48	54→55	38→40	47	203/299/376	174	276	23	2	34%	10%	91	+1.1	225/288/383	158	295	20	3	29%	7%	87	+0.8	230/285/382	152	297	19	2	28%	6%	83	+0.5
✕Kyle Wilson 2006 · A	23	46	56→60	38→30	38	240/288/426	186	311	24	4	31%	5%	98	+1.6	217/260/335	118	279	12	4	26%	4%	63	-0.9	196/233/283	87	248	8	0	24%	2%	34	-1.3
✕Kenny Holmberg 2007 · A	24	46→47	48→50	41→40	49	231/300/373	142	280	16	5	23%	8%	89	+1.0	219/301/321	102	275	10	4	23%	9%	77	+0.1	211/302/300	89	264	9	2	22%	10%	71	-0.2
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	44→51	48→50	37→45	54	224/307/363	140	262	17	3	22%	10%	90	+1.0	226/294/350	124	277	12	5	22%	8%	81	+0.4	227/302/380	153	255	18	0	19%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Ian Rice 2018 · AA	24	39	53→50	41→30	49	209/293/378	169	268	22	3	30%	10%	89	+0.9	199/283/322	123	287	14	3	33%	9%	69	-0.4	179/269/275	96	268	10	1	34%	9%	50	-0.8
✕Phillip Cuadrado 2007 · A	23	49→51	48→50	37→40	43	247/303/388	140	299	16	4	23%	5%	95	+1.4	225/284/351	126	291	13	5	26%	6%	77	+0.1	183/249/299	115	239	12	0	28%	6%	46	-0.6
✕Andy Marte 2006 · MLB	22	43→48	52→55	37→40	51	225/294/392	168	259	19	3	22%	9%	92	+1.2	222/270/374	152	260	18	3	22%	6%	77	+0.1	238/288/397	159	268	19	2	19%	6%	88	+0.5
✕Nick Hundley 2008 · AA	24	41→46	51→55	39→40	45	217/274/376	159	259	19	3	25%	7%	79	+0.3	223/280/380	157	271	18	4	24%	7%	82	+0.5	255/322/429	174	321	17	4	25%	8%	109	+1.2
✕Devin Mann 2021 · A	24	44→46	49→55	44→45	46	222/293/372	149	287	17	7	28%	8%	86	+0.8	216/294/380	164	285	19	5	30%	8%	89	+1.0	213/296/385	172	282	20	4	30%	9%	89	+0.8
✕Orlando Mercado 2008 · A	23	43	45	41→40	55	215/305/340	124	245	13	4	18%	10%	83	+0.6	223/303/304	81	260	6	3	16%	10%	72	-0.2	228/290/297	69	263	5	2	15%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Jacob Wilson 2014 · A	24	38→48	51→55	41→40	47	205/269/358	154	224	20	5	20%	7%	73	-0.1	205/263/336	131	253	14	5	25%	6%	64	-0.8	230/297/404	174	270	20	1	23%	7%	95	+0.8
✕Brock Peterson 2007 · A	23	47→50	49→55	41→40	42	236/294/383	148	303	17	4	28%	6%	89	+1.0	240/298/390	150	312	16	3	27%	6%	93	+1.3	240/299/391	150	313	16	1	27%	6%	90	+0.8
✕Emerson Frostad 2007 · A	24	47	49→50	38→40	45	237/292/393	156	291	17	5	24%	7%	91	+1.1	221/278/355	134	289	14	5	27%	7%	75	-0.0	208/271/330	123	269	12	3	26%	8%	62	-0.5
✕Deivy Grullón 2019 · AA	23	45→42	49→55	41→30	37	232/265/370	139	299	17	2	29%	4%	73	-0.1	224/276/399	175	310	24	4	34%	6%	86	+0.8	204/264/390	187	280	28	1	37%	7%	75	+0.0
●Ryan Lavarnway 2011 · AA	23	45	51→55	44→30	44	226/296/384	158	302	19	2	30%	8%	91	+1.1	230/293/378	148	285	18	2	25%	7%	88	+0.9	231/300/392	161	282	20	0	25%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Drew Ellis 2021 · AA	25	40→37	48→55	37→40	47	206/278/348	141	263	16	3	28%	8%	74	-0.1	203/294/382	179	265	20	5	30%	10%	90	+1.0	187/284/370	183	237	21	4	30%	10%	81	+0.3
●Chris Gimenez 2007 · A	24	41→51	46→50	40→45	43	207/289/341	134	261	13	5	25%	6%	78	+0.2	230/308/388	158	289	19	4	26%	8%	97	+1.5	228/310/388	160	285	20	3	26%	9%	96	+1.0