Josue Gonzalez
C Hudson Valley Renegades| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A/ROKNYY | 291 | .237/.362/.398 | 9 | 5 | 53 | — | .174/.276/.287 |
| 2025 | 21 | ANYY | 265 | .171/.312/.287 | 4 | 14 | 32 | — | .132/.242/.233 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+NYY | 264 | .219/.354/.381 | 6 | 8 | 54 | — | .165/.258/.281 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBNYY | 1 | .178/.267/.294 | 0 | 0 | 59 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBNYY | 57 | .183/.272/.306 | 1 | 1 | 63 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBNYY | 111 | .187/.275/.313 | 2 | 2 | 66 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 62 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 410 | 370 | 779 | 152 | 265 | 19 | 21 | 359 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 147 | 102 | 33 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 324 | 524 | 529 | 1.054 | 206 | 383 | 14 | 26 | 463 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 137 | 115 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 235 | 318 | 348 | 666 | 113 | 255 | 19 | 7 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 154 | 121 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 240 | 399 | 446 | 845 | 207 | 267 | 19 | 14 | 381 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 265 | 216 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 60 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 171 | 312 | 287 | 599 | 116 | 210 | 23 | 14 | 279 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 264 | 215 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 39 | 64 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 219 | 354 | 381 | 735 | 163 | 275 | 24 | 15 | 331 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 62 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 120 | 279 | 180 | 459 | 60 | 167 | 24 | 15 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 147 | 115 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 26 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 200 | 366 | 313 | 679 | 113 | 227 | 18 | 17 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 137 | 118 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 195 | 264 | 297 | 560 | 102 | 215 | 27 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 154 | 129 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 155 | 288 | 279 | 567 | 124 | 195 | 29 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 265 | 227 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 82 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 132 | 242 | 233 | 476 | 101 | 168 | 31 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 264 | 231 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 84 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 165 | 258 | 281 | 539 | 117 | 223 | 32 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 62 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 120 | 279 | 180 | 459 | 60 | 167 | 24 | 15 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 62 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 410 | 370 | 779 | 152 | 265 | 19 | 21 | 359 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 147 | 115 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 26 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 200 | 366 | 313 | 679 | 113 | 244 | 18 | 17 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 147 | 102 | 33 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 324 | 524 | 529 | 1.054 | 206 | 383 | 14 | 26 | 463 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 248 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 81 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 177 | 277 | 282 | 559 | 105 | 224 | 28 | 7 | 247 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 291 | 236 | 56 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 56 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 237 | 362 | 398 | 760 | 161 | 261 | 19 | 11 | 337 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 265 | 227 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 82 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 132 | 242 | 233 | 476 | 101 | 178 | 31 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 265 | 216 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 60 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 171 | 312 | 287 | 599 | 116 | 210 | 23 | 14 | 279 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 264 | 231 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 84 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 165 | 258 | 281 | 539 | 117 | 226 | 32 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 264 | 215 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 39 | 64 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 219 | 354 | 381 | 735 | 163 | 275 | 24 | 15 | 331 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 62 | 51 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 118 | 279 | 176 | 455 | 59 | 167 | 24 | 15 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 147 | 116 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 26 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 198 | 366 | 310 | 676 | 112 | 227 | 18 | 17 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 255 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 81 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 173 | 277 | 275 | 551 | 102 | 204 | 28 | 7 | 247 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 265 | 230 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 82 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 130 | 242 | 230 | 473 | 100 | 168 | 31 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 264 | 233 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 84 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 163 | 258 | 279 | 537 | 116 | 223 | 32 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 255 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 81 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 173 | 277 | 275 | 551 | 102 | 204 | 28 | 7 | 247 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 265 | 230 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 82 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 130 | 242 | 230 | 473 | 100 | 168 | 31 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 264 | 233 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 84 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 163 | 258 | 279 | 537 | 116 | 223 | 32 | 9 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | NYY | 0% | 374 | 331 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 105 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 177 | 266 | 289 | 555 | 112 | 234 | 28 | 9 | 255 | 59 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | NYY | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 267 | 294 | 560 | 116 | 233 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 59 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYY | 30% | 189 | 166 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 182 | 271 | 301 | 571 | 118 | 238 | 28 | 9 | 262 | 63 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYY | 44% | 252 | 223 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 69 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 274 | 308 | 582 | 122 | 241 | 27 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYY | 51% | 305 | 270 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 82 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 189 | 276 | 313 | 589 | 124 | 243 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 68 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYY | 52% | 330 | 292 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 89 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 191 | 278 | 315 | 592 | 124 | 245 | 27 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYY | 53% | 342 | 303 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 92 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 192 | 278 | 315 | 593 | 123 | 246 | 27 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYY | 53% | 340 | 301 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 92 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 189 | 275 | 309 | 583 | 120 | 245 | 27 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYY | 56% | 333 | 296 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 92 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 271 | 301 | 572 | 115 | 243 | 28 | 9 | 262 | 63 | -15 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYY | 30% | 57 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 272 | 306 | 578 | 123 | 237 | 28 | 9 | 264 | 63 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYY | 44% | 111 | 98 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 275 | 313 | 588 | 126 | 241 | 27 | 9 | 268 | 66 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYY | 51% | 155 | 137 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 277 | 318 | 596 | 128 | 243 | 27 | 9 | 271 | 68 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYY | 52% | 173 | 153 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 47 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 279 | 321 | 599 | 129 | 245 | 27 | 9 | 272 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYY | 53% | 182 | 161 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 279 | 321 | 599 | 128 | 246 | 27 | 9 | 272 | 69 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYY | 53% | 179 | 158 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 190 | 276 | 314 | 590 | 124 | 245 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 66 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYY | 56% | 188 | 167 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 52 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 187 | 272 | 306 | 578 | 119 | 243 | 28 | 9 | 264 | 63 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1045 | 925 | 175 | 35 | 6 | 22 | 92 | 285 | 18 | 15 | 6 | 189 | 275 | 311 | 587 | 122 | 245 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 62 | -41 | +1 | -2 | +19 | +23 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 575 | 110 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 57 | 177 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 191 | 276 | 317 | 593 | 125 | 247 | 27 | 9 | 269 | 62 | -26 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3276 | 2860 | 514 | 108 | 20 | 61 | 301 | 900 | 74 | 72 | 24 | 180 | 275 | 295 | 570 | 116 | 234 | 27 | 9 | 260 | 62 | -91 | +2 | -4 | +40 | +49 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 567 | 101 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 60 | 179 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 178 | 274 | 293 | 567 | 115 | 232 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | -26 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 264 PAwOBA .329 → .248 (−81)K% 24.2% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 8.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 15.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 1.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.49% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .329 → .248; ISO .163 → .136; BABIP .275 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ATampa Tarpons · 265 PAwOBA .278 → .215 (−63)K% 22.6% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.96% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.64% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.10% | ÷1.119 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | — | 11.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.046 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | — | 4.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷0.913 | ×0.910 | ×0.971 | — | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.842 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 124, 2B 109, 3B 83, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .278 → .215; ISO .116 → .100; BABIP .210 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Yankees · 154 PAwOBA .374 → .253 (−121)K% 19.5% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.48% | ÷0.972 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.49% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.58% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 13.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.087 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 4.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.142 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 4.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 94, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .374 → .253; ISO .207 → .134; BABIP .267 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ATampa Tarpons · 137 PAwOBA .298 → .241 (−56)K% 19.0% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.98% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.30% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.47% | ÷1.035 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 19.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 3.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.37% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.80% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 94, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .298 → .241; ISO .113 → .093; BABIP .255 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL NYY Yankees · 147 PAwOBA .459 → .298 (−161)K% 14.3% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.85% | ÷1.035 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 17.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.40% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.99% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 13.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.05% | ÷1.041 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 8.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.083 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.47% | ÷1.724 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.66% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 245, 1B 94, 2B 108, 3B 117, K 95, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .459 → .298; ISO .206 → .108; BABIP .383 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Yankees 2 · 62 PAwOBA .357 → .237 (−120)K% 19.4% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.35% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.97% | ÷1.038 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 14.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.033 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.008 | 11.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.033 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.063 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.31% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 107, 2B 107, 3B 95, K 93, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .357 → .237; ISO .152 → .088; BABIP .265 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).