Beau Blanchard

P Dayton Dragons

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ACIN	23	1	50	4.47	3.44	21.9%	5.7%	—	K 16.2% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.40
2026	24	MIX2 levels	27	17	104	5.87	5.42	22.2%	8.9%	—	K 17.5% · BB 10.0% · FIP 6.52
2027PROJ	25	MLBCIN	67	0	70	5.62	5.62	16.1%	9.5%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCIN	38	0	40	5.46	5.44	17.1%	9.3%	-0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCIN	55	0	58	5.38	5.39	17.5%	9.3%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsHunter Adkins (age 25) · Colby Morris (age 25) · Paulshawn Pasqualotto (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%16.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	1	50	228	50	13	6	4%	2.2	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.47	4.40	—
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	1	50	228	50	13	6	4%	2.2	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.47	4.40	—
2025	23	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	23	1	50	228	50	13	6	4%	2.2	21.9%	5.7%	16.2%	2.6%	4.47	3.44	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	104	463	103	41	25	63%	3.9	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	6.6%	5.87	6.52	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	17	104	463	103	41	25	63%	3.9	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	6.6%	5.87	6.52	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	17	104	463	103	41	25	63%	3.9	22.2%	8.9%	13.4%	5.4%	5.87	5.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CIN	67	0	70	296	47	28	12	0%	1.0	16.1%	9.5%	6.5%	4.2%	5.62	5.62	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	89	0	94	396	68	37	16	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	4.1%	5.46	5.44	-0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	88	0	92	391	68	36	16	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	4.0%	5.38	5.39	-0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	85	0	90	379	67	35	15	0%	1.1	17.6%	9.3%	8.2%	4.1%	5.38	5.42	-0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	82	0	86	362	63	34	15	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	4.2%	5.45	5.52	-0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	77	0	81	340	58	33	15	0%	1.0	17.1%	9.8%	7.3%	4.4%	5.60	5.70	-1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	38	0	40	169	29	16	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	4.1%	5.46	5.44	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	55	0	58	245	43	23	10	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	4.0%	5.38	5.39	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	64	0	67	283	50	26	12	0%	1.0	17.6%	9.3%	8.2%	4.1%	5.38	5.42	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	67	0	70	296	52	28	12	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	4.2%	5.45	5.52	-0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	66	0	69	291	50	29	13	0%	1.0	17.1%	9.8%	7.3%	4.4%	5.60	5.70	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		290	0	305	1287	223	122	54	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.5%	7.9%	4.2%	5.46	5.12	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	80	35	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.5%	7.9%	4.2%	5.46	5.12	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		50	18	155	691	118	62	38	36%	3.1	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	5.5%	5.41	5.82	-4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	23	200	894	153	80	49	36%	3.1	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	5.5%	5.41	5.82	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beau Blanchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	16.1%	9.5%	4.2%	—	5.42	17.4%	8.1%	276	-0.20	—	—	—
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	86
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	85
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	83
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	82
Erich Uelmen R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	25	SW	5.32	17.9%	11.0%	4.3%	.267	3.88	19.9%	9.1%	112	-1.44	3.48	383	82
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	81
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	79
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	79
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Carlos Tavera R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	25	SW	5.12	18.3%	13.3%	3.4%	.299	5.43	21.9%	8.8%	29	+0.31	3.85	263	78
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	78
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	78
Fernando Nieve R 2006 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	17.0%	8.8%	4.4%	.240	4.67	14.3%	3.1%	37	-0.51	1.96	287	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	78
Brett Conine R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	25	SW	5.68	14.8%	11.1%	4.4%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	319	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	85	17.2%	9.4%	1.61	5.47
Hector Noesí ('19)	2.1	70	16.4%	8.7%	1.53	5.51
Brandon Backe ('09)	2.6	88	15.4%	10.2%	1.49	5.23
Art Ceccarelli ('55-'60, -2 WAR*)	1.5	102	19.2%*	9.8%*	1.71*	5.41*
Dick Lange ('72-'75, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	16.6%*	9.6%*	1.42*	5.49*
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29
Bill Faul ('62-'70, -1 WAR*)	1.3	87	18.8%*	9.1%*	1.82*	5.41*