Cade Citelli

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	39	51	3.91	3.53	29.5%	12.9%	—	K 22.1% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.72
2026	24	A+TB	31	44	4.06	5.04	23.2%	12.4%	—	K 17.9% · BB 14.2% · FIP 6.22
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	27	28	5.33	5.33	20.2%	13.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBTB	19	20	5.21	5.20	20.8%	13.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTB	27	28	5.16	5.17	21.0%	13.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Casey Fien (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%20.2%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	51	210	62	27	5	0%	1.3	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	2.9%	3.91	4.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	51	210	62	27	5	0%	1.3	22.1%	15.1%	7.0%	2.9%	3.91	4.72	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	51	210	62	27	5	0%	1.3	29.5%	12.9%	16.7%	2.4%	3.91	3.53	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	44	194	45	24	8	0%	1.4	17.9%	14.2%	3.6%	5.2%	4.06	6.22	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	44	194	45	24	8	0%	1.4	17.9%	14.2%	3.6%	5.2%	4.06	6.22	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	44	194	45	24	8	0%	1.4	23.2%	12.4%	10.8%	4.1%	4.06	5.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	27	0	28	118	24	16	4	0%	1.0	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	3.3%	5.33	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	43	0	46	193	40	26	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.3%	7.5%	3.3%	5.21	5.20	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	43	0	45	190	40	25	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.1%	7.9%	3.3%	5.16	5.17	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	19	0	20	84	18	11	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.3%	7.5%	3.3%	5.21	5.20	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	27	0	28	118	25	15	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.1%	7.9%	3.3%	5.16	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	202	42	27	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.2%	7.7%	3.3%	5.18	4.80	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	113	29	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.2%	7.7%	3.3%	5.18	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		70	0	95	404	81	59	16	0%	1.4	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	4.0%	3.98	5.44	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	851	171	125	34	0%	1.4	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	4.0%	3.98	5.44	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Citelli (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	20.2%	13.8%	3.3%	—	5.19	20.9%	7.7%	90	-0.14	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	94
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	86
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	86
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	86
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	86
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	85
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	85
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	85
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	84
Leon Hunter Jr. R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	25	SU	5.45	20.0%	14.4%	4.0%	.287	4.33	25.5%	13.6%	58	-1.12	1.94	183	84
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	20.7%	13.3%	1.27	5.22
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52