Victor Brea — OGILVIE

Victor Brea P ACL D-backs

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 170 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%23.3%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Red	10	0	15	76	10	16	1	0%	1.5	8.9%	26.3%	-17.4%	1.8%	6.14	6.69	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Red	10	0	15	76	10	16	1	0%	1.5	13.2%	21.1%	-7.9%	1.3%	6.14	5.90	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	13	0	15	84	17	17	0	0%	1.2	13.8%	25.3%	-11.5%	0.0%	10.80	5.14	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	13	0	15	84	17	17	0	0%	1.2	20.2%	20.2%	0.0%	0.0%	10.80	4.23	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	13	0	14	60	18	10	0	0%	1.1	20.4%	20.8%	-0.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.02	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	13	0	14	60	18	10	0	0%	1.1	20.4%	20.8%	-0.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.02	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	13	0	14	60	18	10	0	0%	1.1	30.0%	16.7%	13.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.67	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	0	5	21	4	2	0	0%	1.7	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	1.80	2.70	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	0	5	21	4	2	0	0%	1.7	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	1.80	2.70	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	3	0	5	21	4	2	0	0%	1.7	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	1.80	2.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	8	0	8	34	8	4	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	20	9	3	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.4%	13.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.44	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.4%	13.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	4	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.4%	13.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.06	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	94	23	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.4%	13.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		39	0	49	241	35	56	1	0%	1.2	14.4%	23.1%	-8.8%	0.6%	6.47	5.14	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	0	200	990	142	229	6	0%	1.2	14.4%	23.1%	-8.8%	0.6%	6.47	5.14	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Brea (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	23.3%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.44	23.7%	13.2%	20	-0.14	—	—	—
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	88
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	87
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	86
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	86
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	85
Daniel Schlereth L 2010 · 3.59 FIP	24	SU	3.59	21.8%	8.0%	2.4%	.305	4.64	20.8%	7.6%	49	+1.05	3.06	130	85
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	84
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	82
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	82
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.3%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	82
Taylor Tankersley L 2007 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	23.9%	12.7%	1.9%	.302	7.13	14.2%	4.3%	30	+3.37	3.65	118	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	81
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.00	21.5%	11.9%	184	-0.29	3.38	311	81
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	81
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	80
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	471	80
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	80
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	80
Brendon Little L 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	24.7%	11.4%	2.4%	.333	4.03	20.1%	9.1%	187	+0.27	2.63	506	80
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	80