Manuel Mejias — OGILVIE

Manuel MejiasC Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 22 S/R 5'7" / 166 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 158 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .267 / .284

PA13

HR0

K%25

BB%7

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Indians Blue	—	131	112	27	4	0	2	15	16	2	0	1	241	341	330	671	89	260	12	11	307	94	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
2022	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	120	104	28	7	0	1	14	15	2	0	0	269	367	365	732	96	307	12	12	337	114	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	116	20	5	0	0	10	27	1	0	0	172	244	216	460	43	220	21	8	215	32	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2024	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	266	57	13	0	1	36	63	2	3	0	214	312	274	587	60	273	21	12	275	72	-10	+1	—	—	+7	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians Blue	—	131	118	22	3	0	2	9	22	2	0	1	186	256	263	519	76	205	17	7	230	42	-9	-0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	120	110	23	5	0	1	8	21	2	0	0	209	275	282	557	73	242	18	7	242	50	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2023	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	120	18	4	0	0	6	39	1	0	0	150	197	183	380	33	214	30	5	177	6	-14	+0	—	—	+3	-1.2
2024	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	280	49	11	0	1	22	91	2	3	0	175	240	225	465	50	245	30	7	212	30	-26	+1	—	—	+7	-1.9
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians Blue	—	131	118	22	3	0	2	9	22	2	0	1	186	256	263	519	76	208	17	7	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Indians Blue	—	131	112	27	4	0	2	15	16	2	0	1	241	341	330	671	89	260	12	11	307	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	120	110	23	5	0	1	8	21	2	0	0	209	275	282	557	73	250	18	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	—	120	104	28	7	0	1	14	15	2	0	0	269	367	365	732	96	307	12	12	337	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	120	18	4	0	0	6	39	1	0	0	150	197	183	380	33	217	30	5	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	116	20	5	0	0	10	27	1	0	0	172	244	216	460	43	220	21	8	215	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	280	49	11	0	1	22	91	2	3	0	175	240	225	465	50	251	30	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	266	57	13	0	1	36	63	2	3	0	214	312	274	587	60	273	21	12	275	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians Blue	—	131	119	22	3	0	2	9	22	2	0	1	185	256	261	516	76	205	17	7	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	120	109	23	5	0	1	8	21	2	0	0	211	275	284	559	73	242	18	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	121	18	4	0	0	6	39	1	0	0	149	197	182	379	33	214	30	5	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	280	49	11	0	1	22	91	2	3	0	175	240	225	465	50	245	30	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	121	18	4	0	0	6	39	1	0	0	149	197	182	379	33	214	30	5	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	280	49	11	0	1	22	91	2	3	0	175	240	225	465	50	245	30	7	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	13	12	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	250	308	333	641	83	270	23	8	254	58	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	34%	180	163	35	7	1	2	13	44	2	3	1	215	281	307	588	92	274	24	7	266	66	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	46%	301	273	60	12	2	5	22	72	3	5	1	220	285	333	619	114	276	24	7	275	72	-10	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	52%	378	342	76	15	2	7	29	90	4	7	2	222	291	339	630	117	277	24	8	280	75	-11	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	426	387	86	17	2	8	32	101	4	8	2	222	288	339	627	116	277	24	8	282	77	-12	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	453	411	90	18	2	8	35	108	4	8	2	219	287	331	618	112	277	24	8	282	77	-12	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	465	422	92	18	2	8	36	111	4	8	2	218	286	327	613	109	276	24	8	281	76	-13	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	466	422	91	18	2	8	37	113	4	8	2	216	285	325	610	109	275	24	8	279	75	-14	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	52%	463	419	91	18	2	8	37	113	4	8	2	217	287	327	614	110	274	24	8	276	73	-15	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	56%	439	397	85	17	2	7	35	109	4	7	2	214	284	320	604	106	272	25	8	272	70	-16	+1	-3	+8	+10	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	34%	62	56	12	2	0	1	5	15	1	1	0	214	290	304	594	89	273	24	8	259	66	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	46%	139	127	28	6	1	2	10	33	1	2	1	220	283	331	613	110	275	24	7	267	72	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	52%	195	176	39	8	1	3	15	46	2	4	1	222	290	330	620	108	276	24	8	272	75	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	231	209	46	9	1	4	18	55	2	4	1	220	288	330	618	110	276	24	8	274	77	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	246	223	49	10	1	4	19	59	2	5	1	220	287	327	614	108	276	24	8	274	77	-7	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	252	228	51	10	1	5	20	60	2	5	1	224	292	342	634	118	276	24	8	273	76	-7	+1	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	247	224	49	10	1	4	19	60	2	4	1	219	286	326	612	107	275	24	8	271	75	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	52%	243	220	47	9	1	4	19	59	2	4	1	214	282	318	600	105	274	24	8	269	73	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	56%	248	224	47	9	1	4	20	61	2	4	1	210	280	312	593	103	271	25	8	265	70	-9	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1863	1687	368	73	8	31	145	448	16	33	8	218	286	326	612	108	277	24	8	270	67	-57	+3	-4	+33	+40	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	128	25	3	11	51	156	6	12	3	217	287	326	613	109	275	24	8	270	67	-20	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4271	3876	821	164	17	65	322	1037	40	65	17	212	279	313	592	101	270	24	8	268	67	-110	+6	-7	+64	+78	3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	126	25	3	10	49	158	6	10	3	214	281	317	598	103	272	24	8	268	67	-20	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.0	2,021	33	36	218	283	327	+36	+24	3.1	3.0
/162	664	11	12	+11.9	+7.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Mejias (OGILVIE)	22	35→40	30→35	45→50	51	204/267/284	80	270	1	3	25%	7%	58	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→45	36→30	48→60	47	224/285/296	72	288	3	10	22%	7%	66	-1.1	229/326/283	54	319	2	26	25%	12%	80	-0.2	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	46	-2.6	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	65	-1.2	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	68	-0.5
✕Elih Marrero 2019 · A	22	46	36→40	49→55	47	214/278/280	67	279	3	5	23%	8%	60	-1.6	213/272/293	80	285	5	9	25%	7%	61	-1.5	210/267/320	110	294	8	22	29%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Frainyer Chavez 2021 · A	22	44→48	36→40	50	44	207/262/270	63	277	3	15	26%	7%	52	-2.2	208/276/272	64	293	4	11	28%	8%	57	-1.8	225/293/309	84	295	8	18	25%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Mack Chambers 2022 · A	22	42	37→40	45→50	44	199/258/274	76	267	4	7	26%	7%	51	-2.2	211/273/310	99	281	8	11	26%	7%	65	-1.2	201/269/297	95	262	9	13	25%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Carlos Alvarez 2008 · A	22	44	36→40	49→45	49	204/285/270	66	265	2	8	22%	8%	61	-1.5	227/306/316	89	269	4	8	16%	9%	80	-0.2	231/320/325	95	269	5	9	15%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Chace Numata 2015 · A	22	45	38→40	48→40	45	213/263/293	79	255	6	6	19%	5%	57	-1.8	241/291/316	75	289	4	4	17%	6%	73	-0.6	248/299/321	72	292	3	2	15%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→44	37→40	52→50	47	193/261/259	66	255	5	10	25%	8%	50	-2.3	212/286/308	96	275	7	10	23%	9%	70	-0.8	208/289/307	99	266	6	10	22%	10%	68	-0.7
✕Elvis Perez 2018 · A	22	45	36→30	46→45	43	209/266/276	67	286	3	7	27%	6%	54	-2.0	201/245/293	92	285	7	6	31%	5%	51	-2.3	178/210/273	95	240	9	2	30%	4%	30	-1.2
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	196/256/272	76	277	4	12	29%	7%	50	-2.3	214/268/301	87	306	3	10	29%	7%	61	-1.5	225/275/316	91	323	0	8	28%	6%	64	-0.7
✕Roger Tomas 2008 · A	22	42	40→30	50→45	43	206/254/297	91	260	7	5	24%	6%	55	-2.0	221/264/281	60	281	3	6	21%	5%	54	-2.0	231/268/265	34	289	1	6	20%	4%	51	-0.6
✕Josue Huma 2022 · A	22	42	39→40	51→50	45	203/272/286	83	280	6	10	28%	8%	59	-1.6	211/267/295	84	281	7	9	26%	7%	59	-1.6	222/267/298	76	279	8	8	23%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2019 · A	21	41→45	37→40	48→50	44	198/260/271	72	274	5	7	28%	7%	51	-2.2	184/259/260	76	272	5	14	31%	9%	49	-2.4	199/285/288	89	292	7	15	31%	10%	63	-0.8
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Sammy Diaz 2013 · A	22	47	37→40	51→50	46	221/272/291	70	265	4	9	18%	6%	60	-1.6	233/283/311	78	274	4	8	16%	6%	69	-0.9	240/289/314	74	274	3	7	13%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Joseph Rosa 2019 · A	22	40→44	37→40	45→50	41	192/249/259	67	277	6	14	32%	6%	45	-2.7	206/271/295	89	295	7	11	30%	7%	61	-1.5	205/280/300	95	298	7	14	31%	8%	64	-0.8
✕Jose Herrera 2019 · A	22	41	38→40	45→40	43	199/241/278	80	247	5	3	22%	5%	45	-2.7	208/285/306	98	280	8	5	26%	10%	70	-0.9	210/292/298	88	277	8	3	26%	10%	69	-0.5
✕Jose R. Flores 2010 · A	22	41→50	39→40	51→45	44	198/255/282	85	264	7	9	27%	7%	53	-2.1	242/287/330	88	290	7	8	18%	6%	74	-0.5	240/287/320	79	288	5	7	18%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Sean Rooney 2008 · A	22	42	39→40	47→30	43	204/248/289	85	252	7	6	22%	5%	51	-2.3	237/275/325	88	301	5	3	22%	5%	68	-1.0	236/274/327	90	299	6	2	22%	5%	66	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps