Manuel Mejias — OGILVIE

Manuel MejiasC Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 22 S/R 5'7" / 166 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 158 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .264 / .286

PA158

HR1

K%25

BB%7

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT39

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.6M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Indians Blue	—	131	118	22	3	0	2	9	21	2	0	1	186	256	263	519	76	206	16	7	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Indians Blue	—	131	112	27	4	0	2	15	16	2	0	1	241	341	330	671	89	260	12	11	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	120	110	22	4	0	1	8	21	2	0	0	200	267	264	530	64	239	18	7	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	120	104	28	7	0	1	14	15	2	0	0	269	367	365	732	96	307	12	12	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	120	19	5	0	0	6	40	1	0	0	158	205	200	405	42	232	31	5	178	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	116	20	5	0	0	10	27	1	0	0	172	244	216	460	43	220	21	8	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	281	48	12	0	1	21	92	2	3	0	171	234	224	458	53	246	30	7	209	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	266	57	13	0	1	36	63	2	3	0	214	312	274	587	60	273	21	12	275	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	CLE	—	158	145	29	6	1	1	11	40	1	3	1	200	261	276	537	76	270	25	7	253	52	-9	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CLE	34%	180	163	34	7	1	2	13	44	2	3	1	209	275	301	576	92	273	24	7	265	61	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2028	24	MLB	CLE	46%	301	273	60	12	2	5	22	73	3	5	1	220	285	333	619	114	275	24	7	274	68	-11	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.4
2029	25	MLB	CLE	52%	378	343	76	15	2	7	28	91	4	7	2	222	288	338	626	117	276	24	7	278	71	-12	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.6
2030	26	MLB	CLE	54%	426	387	85	17	2	8	32	102	4	8	2	220	286	336	622	116	277	24	8	281	73	-13	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.8
2031	27	MLB	CLE	54%	453	412	90	18	2	8	34	109	4	8	2	218	284	330	615	112	276	24	8	281	73	-14	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.8
2032	28	MLB	CLE	54%	465	422	91	18	2	8	36	113	4	8	2	216	284	325	608	109	276	24	8	280	72	-15	+1	-1	+8	+13	0.7
2033	29	MLB	CLE	53%	466	423	91	18	2	8	36	114	4	8	2	215	283	324	607	109	275	24	8	278	71	-15	+1	-1	+8	+13	0.6
2034	30	MLB	CLE	52%	463	420	90	18	2	8	36	114	4	8	2	214	283	324	606	110	274	25	8	275	69	-16	+1	-2	+8	+13	0.4
2035	31	MLB	CLE	56%	439	398	85	17	2	7	34	110	4	7	2	214	282	319	601	106	271	25	8	271	66	-17	+1	-3	+8	+12	0.1
2036	32	MLB	CLE	59%	411	372	77	15	2	6	32	104	4	6	1	207	277	306	583	99	268	25	8	265	61	-18	+1	-4	+7	+12	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	CLE	34%	62	57	11	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	193	258	281	539	88	273	24	6	259	56	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	24	MLB	CLE	46%	139	127	28	6	1	2	10	34	1	2	1	220	283	331	613	110	276	24	7	267	63	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB	CLE	52%	195	177	39	8	1	3	14	47	2	4	1	220	285	328	613	107	277	24	7	272	66	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2030	26	MLB	CLE	54%	231	210	46	9	1	4	17	56	2	4	1	219	284	329	612	110	277	24	7	274	68	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2031	27	MLB	CLE	54%	246	223	50	10	1	5	19	59	2	5	1	224	291	345	636	121	277	24	8	274	68	-9	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2032	28	MLB	CLE	54%	252	229	50	10	1	5	19	61	2	5	1	218	284	336	620	118	276	24	8	273	67	-9	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.3
2033	29	MLB	CLE	53%	247	224	49	10	1	4	19	60	2	4	1	219	286	326	612	107	276	24	8	271	66	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.2
2034	30	MLB	CLE	52%	243	220	47	9	1	4	19	60	2	4	1	214	282	318	600	105	274	25	8	269	64	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
2035	31	MLB	CLE	56%	248	225	47	9	1	4	19	62	2	4	1	209	276	311	588	102	272	25	8	265	61	-11	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.1
2036	32	MLB	CLE	59%	243	220	46	9	1	4	19	62	2	4	1	209	278	314	592	105	269	26	8	259	57	-12	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2106	1912	413	82	9	36	159	516	18	37	9	216	282	325	607	109	275	25	8	269	64	-86	+4	-6	+38	+60	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	127	25	3	11	49	159	6	11	3	215	282	324	606	108	274	24	8	269	64	-26	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	4827	4387	919	185	20	72	358	1188	45	74	19	209	276	310	586	101	269	25	7	266	62	-209	+7	-10	+86	+137	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	124	25	3	10	48	160	6	10	3	210	276	313	589	103	268	25	7	266	62	-28	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Indians Blue	—	131	112	27	4	2	15	16	2	0	1	241	341	330	671	89	260	12	11	307	93	-1	-0	—	—	+4	0.2
2022	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	120	104	28	7	1	14	15	2	0	0	269	367	365	732	96	307	12	12	337	116	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	129	116	20	5	0	10	27	1	0	0	172	244	216	460	43	220	21	8	215	23	-11	+0	—	—	+4	-0.8
2024	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	307	266	57	13	1	36	63	2	3	0	214	312	274	587	60	273	21	12	275	68	-11	+1	—	—	+9	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#4Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,263	38	39	216	280	325	+40	+24	2.4	2.3
	/162	664	11	12	216	280	325	+11.9	+7.0	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Mejias (OGILVIE)	22	34→39	31→36	45→50	50	203/264/286	82	270	1	3	25%	7%	52	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Frainyer Chavez 2021 · A	22	43→47	36→40	50	45	203/261/265	62	273	3	15	26%	7%	43	-2.2	204/274/269	65	289	4	11	28%	8%	51	-1.7	228/293/326	98	302	11	17	26%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→46	36→30	48→60	47	224/285/296	72	288	3	10	22%	7%	62	-0.9	224/322/278	54	314	2	26	25%	12%	75	-0.0	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Elih Marrero 2019 · A	22	46	36→40	49→55	47	214/278/280	67	279	3	5	23%	8%	55	-1.4	211/270/289	78	283	5	9	25%	7%	54	-1.4	201/279/263	62	296	3	27	30%	9%	50	-0.6
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Chace Numata 2015 · A	22	45	40	48→40	45	217/266/303	86	257	7	6	19%	5%	56	-1.3	243/294/320	77	294	4	4	17%	6%	72	-0.2	250/301/324	74	297	3	2	16%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Mack Chambers 2022 · A	22	41	37→40	45→50	44	197/255/273	76	263	4	7	26%	7%	43	-2.2	211/273/309	98	276	8	11	25%	7%	61	-1.0	203/270/297	93	260	8	13	24%	8%	54	-0.7
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	39	-2.5	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	61	-1.0	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	64	-0.4
✕Elvis Perez 2018 · A	22	45	36→30	46→45	43	210/267/277	67	288	3	7	27%	7%	50	-1.8	203/247/292	89	290	7	6	31%	5%	45	-2.1	181/215/272	91	248	8	2	30%	4%	23	-1.1
✕Roger Tomas 2008 · A	22	42	40→30	50→45	43	206/254/297	91	260	7	5	24%	6%	49	-1.8	221/264/281	60	281	3	6	21%	5%	48	-1.9	231/268/265	34	289	1	6	20%	4%	44	-0.6
✕Carlos Alvarez 2008 · A	22	44	36→40	49→45	49	204/285/270	66	265	2	8	22%	8%	56	-1.3	227/306/316	89	269	4	8	16%	9%	77	+0.1	231/320/325	95	269	5	9	15%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Jose Herrera 2019 · A	22	41	38→40	45→40	43	198/240/278	81	247	6	3	22%	5%	38	-2.6	207/283/309	102	280	9	5	27%	9%	66	-0.6	206/288/299	93	274	9	3	26%	10%	63	-0.4
✕Jose R. Flores 2010 · A	22	41→51	39→40	51→45	44	198/255/282	85	264	7	9	27%	7%	46	-2.0	243/289/332	89	292	7	8	18%	6%	72	-0.2	242/290/323	81	290	5	7	18%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Sammy Diaz 2013 · A	22	47	37→40	51→50	46	221/271/291	70	263	5	9	18%	6%	54	-1.4	230/280/308	78	270	4	8	15%	6%	63	-0.9	235/285/311	75	269	3	7	13%	6%	63	-0.5
✕Sean Rooney 2008 · A	22	42	39→40	47→30	43	204/248/289	85	252	7	6	22%	5%	44	-2.1	237/274/324	87	302	5	3	22%	5%	64	-0.8	235/273/325	90	299	6	2	23%	5%	60	-0.5
✕Joseph Rosa 2019 · A	22	40→44	37→40	45→50	40	193/250/260	67	280	6	14	32%	6%	38	-2.6	205/268/295	90	293	7	11	30%	7%	56	-1.3	203/276/296	94	296	7	14	31%	7%	57	-0.8
✕Rey Bruguera 2014 · A	22	43	38→40	46→50	44	206/272/288	82	289	5	10	29%	8%	55	-1.4	189/250/255	66	292	5	4	34%	7%	37	-2.7	156/223/198	42	249	3	0	36%	8%	9	-1.5
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Josue Huma 2022 · A	22	42	39→40	51→50	45	203/273/286	83	281	6	10	28%	8%	56	-1.3	213/268/299	86	285	7	9	26%	7%	56	-1.3	227/271/307	79	288	8	8	23%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2021 · A	22	43	36→45	50→40	46	203/265/271	69	261	4	5	23%	7%	48	-1.9	218/265/320	102	270	9	4	22%	5%	60	-1.0	231/267/357	126	276	14	0	22%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→46	37→45	52→50	46	194/262/260	66	258	5	10	26%	8%	43	-2.2	216/290/317	101	275	7	10	22%	9%	70	-0.3	216/298/324	108	271	6	10	21%	10%	71	-0.2