RJ Petit

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 287 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #961

Scout OFP37ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	42	1	57	3.49	3.45	22.1%	7.1%	—	K 16.5% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.30
2024	24	AADET	43	1	59	3.68	2.33	31.1%	11.1%	—	K 25.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.08
2025	25	MIX2 levels	47	2	66	2.44	2.50	29.5%	8.2%	—	K 24.5% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.06
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	67	0	70	4.16	4.16	25.2%	10.3%	0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBDET	25	0	26	4.22	4.26	24.9%	10.3%	0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBDET	34	0	36	4.32	4.39	24.6%	10.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control47Command40FB velo52

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · Jose Veras (age 27) · Austin Ross (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.16

FIP4.16

K%25.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD4040

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	1	8	34	8	3	1	17%	1.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.9%	7.04	3.85	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	1	8	34	8	3	1	17%	1.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.9%	7.04	3.88	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	54	233	62	17	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	8.4%	11.8%	3.6%	3.67	4.43	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	54	233	62	17	6	0%	1.1	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	2.6%	3.67	3.19	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	57	253	56	18	6	2%	1.3	16.5%	8.0%	8.6%	2.9%	3.49	4.30	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	1	57	253	56	18	6	2%	1.3	22.1%	7.1%	15.0%	2.4%	3.49	3.45	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	43	1	59	244	76	27	2	2%	1.4	25.2%	12.2%	13.1%	1.0%	3.68	3.08	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	43	1	59	244	76	27	2	2%	1.4	25.2%	12.2%	13.1%	1.0%	3.68	3.08	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	43	1	59	244	76	27	2	2%	1.4	31.1%	11.1%	20.1%	0.8%	3.68	2.33	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	66	268	79	22	4	4%	1.4	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	1.8%	2.44	3.06	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	66	268	79	22	4	4%	1.4	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	1.8%	2.44	3.06	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	2	66	268	79	22	4	4%	1.4	29.5%	8.2%	21.3%	1.5%	2.44	2.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	67	0	70	296	75	30	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	10.3%	15.0%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	65	0	68	287	71	30	8	0%	1.0	24.9%	10.3%	14.6%	2.9%	4.22	4.26	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	62	0	65	274	67	29	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.39	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	25	0	26	110	27	11	3	0%	1.0	24.9%	10.3%	14.6%	2.9%	4.22	4.26	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	34	0	36	152	37	16	5	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	64	27	8	0%	1.0	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	3.0%	4.28	3.96	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	208	88	26	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	3.0%	4.28	3.96	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		187	5	243	1032	224	95	24	3%	1.3	21.7%	9.2%	12.6%	2.3%	3.40	3.71	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	4	200	848	184	78	20	3%	1.3	21.7%	9.2%	12.6%	2.3%	3.40	3.71	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
RJ Petit (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	25.2%	10.3%	2.7%	—	4.32	24.7%	14.4%	133	+0.16	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	93
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	92
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	89
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	89
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	88
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	88
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	87
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	87
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	87
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	87
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	86
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	86
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	85
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	85
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	85
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	84
Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 2.99 FIP	25	SU	2.99	26.1%	11.5%	1.2%	.280	4.13	22.6%	8.4%	77	+1.14	2.99	134	84
Jared Burton R 2008 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	22.6%	8.6%	2.3%	.292	3.51	17.0%	10.6%	59	-0.05	3.09	367	84
Steve Geltz R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	27	SU	3.95	22.7%	8.6%	3.1%	.209	4.90	22.2%	12.0%	89	+0.95	3.57	157	84
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	24.9%	10.3%	1.11	4.23
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*