Lorenzo Carrier — OGILVIE

Lorenzo CarrierOF Spokane Indians

Age 24 R/R A+ HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .267 / .333

PA61

HR1

K%23

BB%5

ISO107

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A+	Spokane Indians	—	19	19	9	4	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	474	474	684	1.158	211	529	11	0	508	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	19	19	7	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	368	368	526	895	158	462	16	0	410	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	19	19	7	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	368	368	526	895	158	438	16	0	410	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	—	19	19	9	4	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	474	474	684	1.158	211	529	11	0	508	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	19	19	7	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	368	368	526	895	158	462	16	0	410	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	19	19	7	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	368	368	526	895	158	462	16	0	410	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	0%	200	188	44	14	1	2	9	46	1	2	1	229	270	336	606	107	292	23	4	270	69	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	30%	105	98	22	7	0	1	5	24	1	1	1	230	272	341	613	110	292	23	5	273	71	-4	-0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	30%	32	30	6	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	240	282	360	642	120	304	22	6	285	71	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	32	30	6	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	200	250	267	517	67	261	22	6	285	80	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	609	122	41	0	0	41	142	0	0	0	200	251	268	518	67	261	22	6	285	80	-23	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	185	175	42	14	0	2	8	41	1	2	1	240	277	354	631	114	301	22	4	286	80	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	615	147	49	0	7	28	144	4	7	4	239	277	353	630	114	299	22	4	286	80	-23	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lorenzo Carrier (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	227/267/333	106	292	1	1	23%	5%	69	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cam Balego 2019 · A	24	43→40	37→45	42→30	41	206/261/282	76	275	3	5	25%	5%	55	-2.0	210/287/319	109	274	11	4	26%	7%	74	-0.6	201/287/314	113	257	14	1	26%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Camden Duzenack 2019 · A	24	39→36	39→50	46→50	41	191/253/277	87	252	5	11	26%	5%	51	-2.3	186/241/309	123	254	15	9	32%	5%	54	-2.0	211/258/338	126	272	14	10	27%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Riccio Torrez 2014 · AA	24	41→34	40	47→45	40	199/257/292	93	247	8	5	23%	4%	56	-1.9	205/257/300	95	273	7	8	27%	4%	57	-1.8	157/181/229	72	223	4	4	31%	2%	7	-1.0
✕Anthony Gallas 2012 · A	24	44→41	41→50	43→40	40	212/266/318	106	281	7	5	26%	5%	65	-1.2	206/250/333	127	275	12	4	29%	5%	62	-1.4	204/244/355	151	264	17	2	29%	4%	63	-1.1
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→32	37→45	48→50	42	194/258/268	74	273	4	7	29%	6%	51	-2.3	203/269/323	120	290	13	15	33%	8%	68	-1.0	184/253/304	120	257	14	15	33%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Duke Sardinha 2006 · A	25	42→33	40→50	46→45	45	206/264/301	94	266	8	8	25%	7%	60	-1.6	199/246/325	126	276	14	6	32%	5%	59	-1.6	191/239/324	133	257	16	5	32%	5%	54	-1.1
✕Anthony Giansanti 2013 · A	24	43→38	41→40	43→45	43	213/258/312	99	258	9	6	21%	5%	60	-1.6	220/265/293	73	279	4	6	22%	5%	58	-1.7	218/263/275	57	277	2	6	21%	5%	50	-1.0
✕Trey Vavra 2017 · A	25	43→38	41→40	43→45	42	213/277/308	96	273	9	5	25%	6%	67	-1.1	193/266/279	86	272	8	7	30%	6%	57	-1.8	93/190/126	33	148	4	0	37%	6%	-5	-1.3
✕Jay Brossman 2009 · A	24	41→36	43→45	46→45	40	206/255/316	110	267	10	9	27%	5%	61	-1.5	197/247/320	123	252	13	8	27%	5%	58	-1.7	178/226/306	128	217	16	7	26%	5%	46	-0.7
✕Ronnie Richardson 2014 · A	24	43	41→40	47→50	45	211/274/317	106	277	8	8	26%	7%	68	-1.0	213/301/309	96	285	6	10	25%	9%	77	-0.3	204/305/297	93	275	5	10	24%	10%	74	-0.3
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→45	44→45	43	199/252/299	99	250	9	7	24%	6%	55	-1.9	202/255/299	97	247	9	7	21%	6%	56	-1.9	199/255/294	95	242	9	7	21%	6%	51	-1.1
✕Michael Helman 2021 · A	25	42	39→50	45→55	43	204/247/289	85	247	6	8	20%	5%	50	-2.3	211/270/356	145	257	17	21	24%	7%	76	-0.4	215/276/356	141	263	17	28	25%	7%	74	-0.3
✕David Sheaffer 2019 · A	24	35	42→50	52→40	39	182/228/283	101	243	10	7	29%	5%	42	-2.9	209/254/329	120	292	12	5	31%	5%	63	-1.4	190/235/299	108	268	11	1	32%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Huascar Fuentes 2016 · A	24	39	41→45	47→45	46	190/269/296	106	230	7	7	20%	6%	62	-1.4	189/249/268	79	265	4	6	29%	5%	47	-2.5	170/223/232	62	251	3	4	31%	3%	27	-1.1
✕Jose Sibrian 2023 · A	24	42	37→50	47→30	43	201/258/271	70	258	4	3	23%	5%	51	-2.3	209/269/316	107	274	10	4	26%	5%	66	-1.1	210/272/348	138	252	16	0	23%	5%	74	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2015 · AA	24	40	39→45	51→50	37	195/233/283	88	270	5	9	29%	4%	44	-2.8	228/283/307	79	309	5	8	26%	7%	68	-1.0	235/295/303	68	317	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Jake Rucker 2024 · AAA	24	43→42	41→45	45→50	42	206/272/311	105	288	8	11	30%	7%	65	-1.2	209/270/321	112	256	11	9	22%	7%	67	-1.1	206/270/322	116	240	13	9	20%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Vito Friscia 2021 · A	24	43	40→45	49→40	42	206/262/298	93	286	7	5	30%	7%	59	-1.7	208/290/320	112	316	11	4	34%	9%	75	-0.5	196/287/310	113	296	11	2	34%	10%	70	-0.5
✕Zane Gurwitz 2019 · A	24	40	39→45	48→45	39	196/240/286	90	264	6	7	28%	5%	47	-2.5	203/259/305	102	293	9	6	32%	6%	59	-1.7	193/254/293	100	279	11	4	33%	7%	53	-1.4
✕Max Burt 2021 · AA	24	39→35	40→45	44→55	34	194/240/276	82	279	8	6	33%	4%	45	-2.7	201/252/312	111	285	12	16	32%	5%	59	-1.7	191/247/304	113	267	13	21	32%	6%	52	-1.2