Brandon Neely — OGILVIE

Brandon Neely P Greenville Drive

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%23.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	14	0	27	130	39	16	4	0%	2.0	21.1%	15.3%	5.9%	4.4%	9.55	5.68	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	14	0	27	130	39	16	4	0%	2.0	21.1%	15.3%	5.9%	4.4%	9.55	5.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	BOS	2	0	5	17	8	1	0	0%	2.4	47.1%	5.9%	41.2%	0.0%	1.93	-0.13	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	BOS	12	0	23	113	31	15	4	0%	1.9	27.4%	13.3%	14.2%	3.5%	11.12	4.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	26	0	28	116	27	12	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.41	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	11	0	12	51	12	5	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	12	5	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.03	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	85	17	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		14	0	27	130	27	20	6	0%	2.0	21.1%	15.3%	5.9%	4.4%	9.55	5.68	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	0	200	951	201	145	42	0%	2.0	21.1%	15.3%	5.9%	4.4%	9.55	5.68	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Neely (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	23.0%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.41	23.6%	13.5%	28	-0.17	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	87
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	86
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	86
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	85
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	85
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	85
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	84
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	84
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	84
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	83
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	83