Luke Jewett — OGILVIE

Luke Jewett P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 57 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%13.4%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%-0.7%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	45	208	38	22	3	0%	1.3	12.7%	12.5%	0.2%	1.5%	4.76	4.44	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	45	208	38	22	3	0%	1.3	12.7%	12.5%	0.2%	1.5%	4.76	4.44	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	45	208	38	22	3	0%	1.3	18.3%	10.6%	7.7%	1.4%	4.76	3.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	COL	54	0	57	241	32	34	7	0%	1.1	13.4%	14.1%	-0.7%	2.9%	5.74	5.74	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	55	0	58	244	38	32	7	0%	1.1	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	2.9%	5.50	5.44	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	55	0	58	244	40	31	7	0%	1.1	16.6%	12.8%	3.8%	2.9%	5.35	5.30	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	24	0	25	106	16	14	3	0%	1.0	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	2.9%	5.50	5.44	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	36	0	38	160	27	21	5	0%	1.1	16.6%	12.8%	3.8%	2.9%	5.35	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	43	34	8	0%	1.1	16.1%	12.9%	3.2%	2.9%	5.41	4.98	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	108	25	0%	1.1	16.1%	12.9%	3.2%	2.9%	5.41	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		35	0	45	208	26	26	3	0%	1.3	12.7%	12.5%	0.2%	1.5%	4.76	4.44	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	918	117	115	14	0%	1.3	12.7%	12.5%	0.2%	1.5%	4.76	4.44	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Jewett (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	13.4%	14.1%	2.9%	—	5.37	16.0%	3.0%	116	-0.37	—	—	—
Rafael Dolis R 2012 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	13.9%	12.7%	3.0%	.287	4.02	15.8%	1.5%	66	-1.17	2.80	200	90
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	88
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	88
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	87
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	87
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	86
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	86
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	86
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	85
Claudio Custodio R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	11.1%	13.2%	2.7%	.351	3.79	11.5%	4.8%	37	-1.52	3.08	186	85
Jesus Barraza R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	9.8%	11.1%	2.3%	.302	3.26	15.3%	8.2%	91	-1.69	3.24	164	85
Chay Yeager R 2024 · 5.60 FIP	21	SU	5.60	13.1%	15.7%	2.9%	.261	4.20	22.8%	12.5%	56	-1.40	4.20	110	85
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	85
Miguel Nunez R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	13.2%	13.7%	2.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	154	84
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	84
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	84
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	84
Jonathan Brand R 2024 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	13.6%	10.6%	2.4%	.284	4.87	22.0%	11.9%	115	+0.26	3.34	198	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	15.1%	13.3%	1.13	5.53
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57